The Arizona Juvenile Fillies Stakes is a $30,000 dirt stakes race for 2-year-old fillies, run at 6 1/2 furlongs. This event highlights up-and-coming Arizona-bred or sired talent in a competitive field of seven entries, with a mix of maiden winners and lightly raced prospects. The race often features tactical speed duels on Turf Paradise’s dirt oval, favoring horses with early pace or strong closing kicks. Justin Evans fields two contenders, adding intrigue to the betting landscape.
Venue Location
Turf Paradise is located at 1501 W. Bell Road, Phoenix, Arizona 85023. Opened in 1956, this historic track features a one-mile dirt oval and a 7/8-mile turf course, though this stakes is on dirt. The venue is known for its affordable admission, vibrant OTB simulcasting, and mountain views, with a capacity for about 10,000 fans.
Post Time: Approximately 3:45 PM MST (Race 6 on an 8-race card; first post at 1:15 PM MST, with races spaced about 30 minutes apart) Live coverage and wagering are available via TVG, TwinSpires, and track simulcasts.
Expected Weather Conditions
Forecast for Phoenix on December 29, 2025, calls for sunny skies with a high of 70°F and lows around 52°F. Winds will be light at 1-5 mph, with 0% chance of precipitation and low humidity (around 30%). Ideal racing weather, promoting fast times on dirt without heat-related fatigue.
Track Conditions
The dirt track at Turf Paradise is rated as fast for December 29, 2025. No recent rain has affected the surface, and maintenance crews report excellent drainage and consistent footing. The rail is at zero feet, favoring inside speed in sprints like this. Monitor for any late changes, but expect a fair, speed-friendly track.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field consists of seven 2-year-old fillies, all carrying 8-9 (123 lbs). All are Arizona-bred or sired, with limited starts typical for juveniles. Below is a detailed breakdown, including post position, recent finishes (last five where available, with dates, tracks, positions, and speed figures if noted), pedigree insights, and analysis. Morning line (ML) odds are listed; actual odds may vary.
Skyexpress (Post Position 1, ML Odds: 8/1)
Horse Analysis: By Sky Mesa out of Expressly (by Lookin At Lucky), this filly has shown tactical speed in sprints. Pedigree leans toward dirt stamina; inside post allows ground-saving trip, but she needs to break alertly to avoid traffic. Recent form inconsistent, but improving with experience.
Recent Finishes:
11/15/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 3rd (78) – Rallied late.
10/20/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 4th (72) – Faded after pace duel.
9/10/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 5th (68) – Green but showed speed.
Jockey: Blake Nunnally – Local rider with 15% win rate at Turf Paradise; strong from inside posts (18% wins).
Trainer: Alexis Leon – Solid with juveniles (20% win rate); focuses on Arizona-breds. Overall: Value underlay if pace collapses.
Rascally Rabbit (Post Position 2, ML Odds: 5/2)
Horse Analysis: Sired by Rabbit Run out of Mischief Maker (by Goldencents), she boasts quick gate speed. Pedigree for early maturity; good draw for stalking. Recent wins suggest she’s peaking, but must handle class rise.
Recent Finishes:
12/09/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (85) – Wire-to-wire.
09/22/25, Prairie Meadows (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 1st (82) – Dominant.
08/01/25, Prairie Meadows (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (78) – Easy score.
Jockey: Frank Alvarado – Veteran with 22% win rate in sprints; excels on speed horses.
Trainer: Kevin Eikleberry – High-percentage barn (25% wins with 2YOs); consistent producer. Overall: Co-favorite with upside.
Run As One (Post Position 3, ML Odds: 12/1)
Horse Analysis: By Unified out of Runaway Girl (by Runhappy), she has closer tendencies. Pedigree for dirt sprints; mid-pack post suits rallying style, but needs pace meltdown. Limited form, but untapped potential.
Recent Finishes:
11/20/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 2nd (76) – Closed well.
10/05/25, Turf Paradise (Debut, 5.5f dirt-fast): 6th (62) – Learning experience.
Jockey: Jose Asencio – Steady performer (16% wins); good on closers.
Trainer: Marvin Buffalo – Develops late bloomers (18% with juveniles). Overall: Longshot for exotics.
Run Your Mouth (Post Position 4, ML Odds: 6/1)
Horse Analysis: Daughter of Practical Joke out of Chatterbox (by Munnings), with playful speed. Pedigree screams precocity; central post for versatile tactics. Recent placings show consistency.
Recent Finishes:
11/10/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 2nd (80) – Pressed pace.
10/15/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 3rd (75) – Solid effort.
09/05/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (72) – Debut win.
Jockey: Orlando Mojica – Aggressive rider (20% wins in stakes); pairs well with speed.
Trainer: Isaiah Ortiz – Rising star (22% with 2YOs). Overall: Mid-price contender.
Playful (Post Position 5, ML Odds: 5/1)
Horse Analysis: By Practical Joke out of Fun-loving (by Ghostzapper), tactical and versatile. Pedigree for adaptability; outside draw may force wide trip, but strong finisher. Improving form.
Recent Finishes:
11/25/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (82) – Impressive close.
10/10/25, Turf Paradise (Debut, 5.5f dirt-fast): 4th (70) – Even run.
Jockey: Manuel Americano – Local specialist (19% wins at track).
Trainer: Gonzalo Anderson – Patient developer (20% juveniles). Overall: Live at odds.
Subtle Shimmer (Post Position 6, ML Odds: 7/2)
Horse Analysis: Sired by Twirling Candy out of Shimmering Light (by Candy Ride), with closing kick. Pedigree for stretch runs; wide post a concern, but barn’s hot form helps. Recent efforts strong.
Recent Finishes:
07/27/25, Emerald Downs (Allowance, 6.5f dirt-fast): 1st (84) – Rallied.
06/15/25, Emerald Downs (MSW, 5f dirt-fast): 1st (80) – Wire win.
Jockey: Kiaman McGregor – Up-and-coming (17% wins); good on closers.
Trainer: Justin Evans – Top barn (28% win rate); dual threat. Overall: Strong second choice.
Whiskey High (Post Position 7, ML Odds: 2/1)
Horse Analysis: By Whiskey Wisdom out of High Spirits (by Ghostzapper), front-runner with class. Pedigree for speed; outermost post challenges, but dominant form makes her the one to beat.
Recent Finishes:
11/18/25, Turf Paradise (Allowance, 6f dirt-fast): 1st (88) – Easy lead.
10/12/25, Turf Paradise (MSW, 5.5f dirt-fast): 1st (85) – Impressive.
09/08/25, Emerald Downs (Debut, 5f dirt-fast): 2nd (82) – Just missed.
Jockey: Guillermo Rodriguez – Stakes specialist (25% wins).
Trainer: Justin Evans – See Subtle Shimmer; favored entry. Overall: Logical favorite.
