The Montreal Canadiens travel to Florida for an Atlantic Division clash against the Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup of two playoff contenders. The Lightning, coming off a strong holiday break performance, enter as favorites at home despite injury challenges, while the Canadiens aim to build on their recent offensive surge. This is the second meeting of the 2025-26 season, with Tampa Bay winning the first 6-1 on December 10 in Montreal.
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Venue
Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
Puckdrop is set for 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT)
TV Broadcast: ESPN+ (national), TSN2/RDS (Canadiens feed), The Spot (Lightning feed)
Doors open 60 minutes prior to puck drop.
The Lightning’s .608 points percentage reflects solid goaltending and offense, while the Canadiens’ .581 mark highlights their road prowess and recent form. Tampa Bay ranks 8th in goals for (117) and 3rd in goals against (94), with Montreal at 5th in goals for (121) but 24th in goals against (121).
Recent Team Forms
The Lightning have rebounded from a mid-December dip, while the Canadiens enter with momentum from a strong pre-break stretch.
Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens are 3-2-0 in their last five, including a 6-2 road win over the Boston Bruins on December 23 and a 4-3 shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on December 21. They’ve gone 7-4-2 in December, averaging 3.27 goals per game while allowing 3.27. Road form is elite at 10-3-4, with key wins like a 4-0 shutout over Pittsburgh on December 20. Offensive highlights include four goals in five minutes against Boston, but defensive lapses have led to high-scoring affairs.
Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning are 3-2-0 in their last five, capped by a 4-1 home win over the St. Louis Blues on December 23 and a 6-4 comeback victory against the Carolina Hurricanes on December 20. They’ve won three of four, averaging 3.17 goals per game in that span while tightening defensively (allowing 2.54 goals per game league-wide, third-worst offensively for opponents). Home form is 11-6-1, but they’ve struggled against divisional foes lately, including a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on December 18.
Injury Report
Injuries hit the Lightning harder on defense, while the Canadiens manage with depth pieces out.
Montreal Canadiens:
Alexandre Texier (upper body): Day-to-day, expected to return December 28.
Jake Evans (lower body): IR, out 4-6 weeks.
Kirby Dach (foot): LTIR, expected January 4.
Kaiden Guhle (groin): LTIR.
The Canadiens rely on young stars like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield to lead, with Jacob Fowler stepping up in net.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Victor Hedman (elbow): Out until February post-surgery.
Emil Lilleberg (undisclosed): Week-to-week, on IR.
Erik Cernak (hand/undisclosed): LTIR.
Brandon Hagel (upper body): IR, missed recent games.
Tampa Bay misses Hedman’s leadership (28 points in 33 games) and Hagel’s scoring (18 goals), forcing reliance on Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
Key Player Matchups
With defensive absences on both sides, offensive stars will dictate the pace. Focus on high-scoring forwards and goaltending battles.
Nick Suzuki (MTL) vs. Brayden Point (TBL): Suzuki (goal and assist in recent win, team-leading points) anchors Montreal’s top line with poise and playmaking. Point (three goals, five assists in last six) thrives in transition, exploiting mismatches—edge to Point at home.
Cole Caufield/Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL) vs. Nikita Kucherov (TBL): Caufield’s sniping (power-play goals) and Slafkovsky’s physicality test Tampa’s depleted blue line. Kucherov (team-leading 36 points) counters with elite vision and shooting; he’s scored in four straight vs. Montreal.
Jacob Fowler (MTL) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL): Rookie Fowler (3-1-1, .915 SV%) shines with a shutout and 26-save win recently. Vasilevskiy (1-1-0 post-injury, .857 SV% lately) remains elite but vulnerable—Montreal’s offense could pressure him.
Lane Hutson (MTL) vs. Jake Guentzel (TBL): Hutson (three assists vs. Bruins) quarterbacks Montreal’s power play. Guentzel (two goals vs. Hurricanes, eight points in six) feasts on rebounds.
Tampa Bay’s depth gives them matchup advantages, but Montreal’s road speed could create chaos.
Series History
The Lightning dominate the all-time series with a 61-45-6-7 regular-season record (53.8% win rate) over the Canadiens. In playoffs, Tampa Bay leads 3-1 in series, including back-to-back wins. Recently, the Lightning have won eight straight from 2014-15, but Montreal snapped trends with a 3-2 home win on January 21, 2025. At home, Tampa Bay is 34-32-1-5 vs. Montreal, with games often high-scoring (over in 6 of last 10).
Betting Trends
Spread: Tampa Bay is 10-7 ATS at home but 2-3 ATS in last five; Montreal is 7-3 ATS on road as underdogs.
Over/Under: Trends favor under: 4 of Lightning’s last 5 under, 3 of Canadiens’ last 5 road games under. Series history shows under in 5 of last 8.
Other Trends: Lightning 6-4 in last 10 vs. Montreal, but Canadiens cover in 4 of last 6 as +120 or higher underdogs. Player props: Kucherov over 1.5 points (+150) strong; Suzuki over 0.5 assists (-110).
Books project a Lightning win, implied score 4-2.
Game Odds
Montreal Canadiens 6.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 148
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, December 27, 2025
