The 2025 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl pits the No. 20 Virginia Cavaliers (ACC) against the No. 25 Missouri Tigers (SEC) in a compelling matchup between two teams that exceeded preseason expectations. Virginia brings a 10-3 record after a heartbreaking overtime loss in the ACC Championship, while Missouri enters at 8-4 following a solid SEC campaign. This rare clash—only the second in series history—highlights Virginia’s offensive resurgence against Missouri’s defensive grit. Below is a full breakdown.
Venue Location
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida. This outdoor NFL venue, home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, seats over 67,000 and features a Bermuda grass surface, hosting the Gator Bowl annually since 1996.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. CT). The game will air on ESPN.
Note: While the query specifies December 25, all official sources confirm December 27.
Weather Forecast
Mild conditions are expected, with daytime highs around 77°F and evening temperatures dropping to 57°F. Partly cloudy skies with a low chance of precipitation (under 20%), light winds at 4 mph, and moderate humidity. Ideal for football, but any scattered showers could slick the grass surface.
Injury Report
Both teams are dealing with significant absences, impacting depth in the trenches and skill positions.
- Virginia Cavaliers: Linebacker Kam Robinson is out for the season with a torn ACL. Quarterback Chandler Morris is recovering from an injury sustained against Wake Forest but is expected to play. Left tackle McKale Boley is questionable after an issue in the Virginia Tech game. Offensive guard T. Wyatt is questionable (undisclosed). Monitor the offensive line for any limitations.
- Missouri Tigers: Middle linebacker Josiah Trotter and tight end Brett Norfleet are out for the bowl with undisclosed injuries. Offensive lineman Cayden Green is out (undisclosed). Quarterback Sam Horn is out for the season (ankle). Defensive lineman Z. Young is questionable (personal). Running back Ahmad Hardy and others are healthy, but the losses strain the front seven and passing game.
Key Player Matchups
This game could turn on Virginia’s high-octane offense challenging Missouri’s opportunistic defense, particularly with injuries forcing adjustments.
- UVA QB Chandler Morris vs. MIZ S Marvin Burks Jr.: Morris leads with over 3,800 passing yards and 30+ TDs; Burks, Missouri’s secondary anchor, must limit his deep balls to receivers like Suderian Harrison.
- MIZ QB Beau Pribula vs. UVA LB Rob Keys: Pribula’s dual-threat (over 2,000 passing, 500 rushing) tests Keys, Virginia’s tackling leader in a front seven thinned by Robinson’s absence.
- UVA RB Anthony Colandrea (dual-threat QB/RB hybrid) vs. MIZ DL Khalil Jacobs: Colandrea’s versatility adds ground punch; Jacobs must contain scrambles to force passing situations.
- MIZ WR Kevin Coleman Jr. vs. UVA CB J. Prevard: Coleman’s speed (top receiver) exploits Prevard in man coverage.
Other watch: UVA WR Andre Greene Jr. could create mismatches against MIZ CB Toriano Pride Jr.
Recent Team Forms
- Virginia Cavaliers (10-3, 7-1 ACC): Started 2-1 with wins over William & Mary (55-16) and Stanford (48-20), then dominated ACC play with victories over FSU, UNC, and Wake Forest (27-7 over VT to end regular season). Lost ACC Championship in OT to Duke. Averaged 35+ points in wins, showing offensive balance but defensive vulnerabilities in losses.
- Missouri Tigers (8-4, 5-3 SEC): Opened 4-0 with blowouts over Central Arkansas (61-6) and Kansas (42-31), but dropped games to Texas A&M and Alabama. Rebounded with wins over South Carolina (29-20) and UMass (45-3), emphasizing defense (under 20 points allowed in victories) despite offensive inconsistencies.
Conference vs Conference
ACC vs. SEC. The SEC edges the ACC in 2025 rankings (8 vs. 5 in AP Top 25) and head-to-head (e.g., Clemson 1-1 vs. SEC), reflecting superior depth and recruiting. ACC teams like Virginia emphasize speed, but SEC squads hold a 55-45 all-time edge in cross-conference play.
Series History
Missouri leads 1-0, with their lone meeting in 1973 (Missouri won 31-7 in Columbia). No other games exist, making this a fresh rivalry matchup.
Betting Trends
- Virginia: 7-6 ATS overall; 6-1 ATS as underdogs; 8-5 O/U. Strong on the road (4-1 ATS) but unders in cold/rainy games.
- Missouri: 7-5 ATS; 5-2 ATS as favorites; 6-6 O/U, trending under against ACC foes.
- Game-Specific: Public leaning Virginia +4.5, sharps on Missouri; unders hit in 5 of Missouri’s last 7 neutrals; SEC favorites 6-3 ATS vs. ACC in bowls.
Historical Betting Results
The Gator Bowl (since 1946) has favorites at 35-30 ATS, with overs hitting in 38 of 65 games. Largest margin: +41 (Syracuse 52-10 over Clemson, 1996). Recent: 2024 Ole Miss covered -3.5 vs. Duke (over); 2023 Clemson failed to cover -4 vs. Kentucky (under). SEC teams are 12-8 ATS in this bowl since 2000.
Game Odds
Virginia Cavaliers 44.5
Missouri Tigers – 4
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 25, 2025
