The 2025 NCAA Division III Football Playoffs heat up in the semifinals with a showdown between the explosive Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (12-1) from the Centennial Conference and the high-octane UW-River Falls Falcons (12-1) from the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC). This is the first matchup between these two offensive juggernauts, both averaging over 40 points per game, with the winner punching a ticket to the Stagg Bowl national championship on January 5, 2026, at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas. UW-River Falls, making program history in its deepest playoff run ever, hosts as the nation’s No. 1 total offense (563 yards per game), while Johns Hopkins brings a balanced attack and road playoff pedigree, having reached the semis three of the last four years.
Venue and Logistics
Location: David Smith Stadium at Ramer Field, University of Wisconsin-River Falls, River Falls, Wisconsin (a small town 30 miles east of Minneapolis-St. Paul). Capacity: Approximately 3,500. The venue features natural grass and a heated press box, but the open-air setup amplifies the WIAC’s notorious December chills—UW-River Falls sold out its quarterfinal (1,850 fans braved 1°F temps) and expects a record crowd for this historic home semi.
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. CT / 1:00 p.m. ET (broadcast on ESPN+)
Weather Forecast: Bitter cold typical of WIAC playoffs, with kickoff temps around 18°F and highs reaching 28°F under partly cloudy skies. Winds from the north at 8-12 mph, with a 20% chance of light snow flurries in the afternoon. These sub-freezing conditions favor the Falcons’ no-huddle, up-tempo offense (90+ snaps/game), as they’re 6-0 in games below 30°F this season, while Johns Hopkins is 2-1 on the road in similar weather but allowed 24 points in their last cold-weather road win.
Injury Report
Both squads are largely intact after lopsided quarterfinals, but the cold could exacerbate minor issues for traveling Johns Hopkins.
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays:
Out: None reported. Full depth chart available post-Susquehanna rout.
Questionable: Junior LB Jack Dunn (team-high 112 tackles, 12 TFLs) – rolled ankle vs. Susquehanna but recorded 8 stops; practiced limited Wednesday, expected to start with a brace.
Probable: QB Bay Harvey (3,200+ passing yards, 35 TDs) – cleared after a minor shoulder strain in Week 11; threw for 280 yards and 3 TDs vs. Susquehanna without issue. The Blue Jays’ defense, No. 4 nationally in scoring (14.2 PPG allowed), showed no rust in holding Susquehanna to 10 points.
UW-River Falls Falcons:
Out: Senior OL reserve (unnamed) – knee surgery from regular season; not a rotational player.
Questionable: Sophomore WR Jake Hilton (126 yards, 2 TDs vs. Wheaton) – tweaked hamstring late in quarterfinal but walked off; full practice Thursday, game-time decision for starter role.
Probable: QB Kaleb Blaha (Gagliardi Trophy semifinalist, 4,100 passing yards, 42 TDs) – no lingering effects from a Week 10 hit; completed 32-of-50 for 407 yards in frigid conditions vs. Wheaton. The Falcons’ offense exploded for 507 yards in 1°F weather, with their O-line allowing zero sacks.
Key Player Matchups
This clash pits Johns Hopkins’ opportunistic secondary against UW-River Falls’ aerial assault, while the Falcons’ front seven tests the Blue Jays’ efficient ground game.
UW-River Falls QB Kaleb Blaha vs. Johns Hopkins CB Ethan Jones
Blaha (nation-leading 4.1 yards per attempt, 42 TD passes) orchestrates the fastest offense in DIII, but Jones (Centennial Defensive POY, 7 INTs, 45% completion rate allowed) thrives in man coverage, picking off 3 passes in the playoffs. If Jones disrupts Blaha’s top target Rohrer (1,200+ yards), the Falcons’ rhythm (9-of-16 third downs vs. Wheaton) could falter.
Johns Hopkins RB Justice Jones vs. UW-River Falls LB Carter Payne
Jones (1,100 rushing yards, 14 TDs, 6.2 YPC) anchors a balanced attack, but Payne (WIAC leader, 18 TFLs, 7 sacks) fronts the No. 3 defense in sacks (3.2/game). Payne stuffed St. John’s for losses totaling 45 yards; containing Jones early could force Harvey into predictable passes, where JHU is 78% efficient on third-and-long.
Johns Hopkins WR Holden King vs. UW-River Falls S Logan Richter
King (1,000+ receiving yards, 15 TDs) is Harvey’s go-to in the red zone (10 scores inside 20), but Richter (team-high 85 tackles, 4 INTs) leads a secondary that held Wheaton to 1-of-3 red-zone trips. Richter’s zone drops limited big plays (longest completion allowed: 28 yards in playoffs), potentially capping King’s explosive potential (3 drops all season).
Recent Team Forms
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (12-1, 7-1 Centennial): After a midseason stumble, the Blue Jays have won 10 straight, blending Harvey’s arm with a stingy defense.
Their last five games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Dec 13 | Susquehanna (Qtrfinal) | W 40-10 | Harvey: 280 pass yds, 3 TDs; Defense: 3 INTs |
| Dec 6 | Salisbury | W 45-13 | Jones: 120 rush yds, 2 TDs |
| Nov 23 | Springfield (2nd Rd) | W 34-14 | King: 5 rec, 110 yds, 2 TDs |
| Nov 16 | Franklin & Marshall | W 42-0 | Shutout; 400+ total yds |
| Nov 9 | McDaniel | W 42-0 | Defense: 4 takeaways |
Johns Hopkins scores 38.2 PPG but faces its toughest test vs. the Falcons’ pace (No. 1 in time of possession disruption).
UW-River Falls Falcons (12-1, 6-1 WIAC): The Falcons’ only loss was a Week 6 road slip; they’ve since reeled off 11 wins, including three playoff blowouts.
Their last five:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Dec 13 | Wheaton (Qtrfinal) | W 46-21 | Blaha: 407 pass yds, 4 TDs; 507 total yds |
| Dec 6 | St. John’s (2nd Rd) | W 42-14 | Asher: 3 rush TDs; Defense: 2 INTs |
| Nov 29 | Chapman (1st Rd) | W 58-7 | Rohrer: 150 rec yds, 2 TDs |
| Nov 15 | UW-Platteville | W 31-21 | Blaha: 300+ pass yds |
| Nov 8 | UW-Whitewater | W 35-28 | 450 total yds; Game-winning FG |
UW-River Falls leads DIII in yards (563/game) but their defense (22.1 PPG allowed) bent but didn’t break vs. Wheaton’s 300+ yards.
Conference vs. Conference: Centennial vs. WIAC
The WIAC, celebrating its centennial legacy as DIII’s premier conference (19 straight years atop power rankings), has claimed 8 national titles since 2000 and a 25-5 non-con record in 2025, fueled by offensive innovation and cold-weather grit. They’ve dominated Centennial foes historically (12-4 since 2010), with UW-River Falls alone 3-0 vs. East Coast teams in playoffs. The Centennial, rising to No. 2 nationally, boasts balance (16-8 non-con) and playoff savvy (4 semis appearances since 2019), but trails in firepower—WIAC teams average 45 PPG vs. Centennial’s 38. Crossovers often go over (65% of totals), fitting this shootout potential.
Series History
First-ever meeting between Johns Hopkins (4 national titles, 11-3 playoff record) and UW-River Falls (0 titles, but 3-0 in 2025 playoffs). The Blue Jays’ road semis experience (2-1) meets the Falcons’ home magic (undefeated at Ramer Field in postseason), promising a milestone for the host.
Betting Trends: Falcons 10-3 ATS as home favorites (77%), covering in all 3 playoff home games; Blue Jays 6-2 ATS on road (75%) but 1-2 as double-digit dogs. Public 72% on over; sharps on Falcons (DIII home semis dogs 4-9 ATS last 13 years, but favorites 18-5).
Historical Betting Results (DIII Semifinals/Stagg Bowl): Home teams win 70% SU (21-9 last 30 semis), covering 62% ATS; overs hit 58% in December games, spiking to 68% when both offenses >40 PPG (like here). Stagg Bowl: Favorites 15-5 SU since 2010; totals over in 62% of title games with temps <40°F.
Game Odds
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays 62.5
UW-River Falls Falcons – 14.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 19, 2025
