The No. 8 seed UC Davis Aggies (9-3, 6-2 Big Sky) host the No. 17 seed Illinois State Redbirds (10-4, 5-3 MVFC) in an FCS playoff quarterfinal on Saturday, December 13, 2025. UC Davis earned a first-round bye after a strong regular season capped by a 47-20 second-round thrashing of Rhode Island, while Illinois State punched their ticket with a stunning 29-28 upset of No. 1 North Dakota State in the second round, extending their win streak to three. This rematch of a lopsided 2024 meeting at UC Davis Health Stadium pits the Aggies’ high-octane passing attack (285.4 pass YPG, No. 5 FCS) against the Redbirds’ opportunistic defense (+10 TO margin, No. 10 FCS), with the hosts’ mild California weather and home crowd providing a slight edge. The winner advances to the semifinals—expect a track meet where UC Davis’ aerial assault tests ISU’s secondary, but the Redbirds’ ground game could grind out an upset.
Venue and Broadcast Details
Location: UC Davis Health Stadium, Davis, California (capacity: 10,743). This modern on-campus facility, home to the Aggies since 2007, features a fast AstroTurf surface that favors spread offenses and a supportive crowd (average 8,500+ in playoffs) that amplifies the low-elevation (52 feet) advantage for the hosts.
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. PT).
Broadcast: ESPN2 (national TV); streaming on ESPN+ and Fubo. Radio: Redbird IMG Sports Network (ISU) and Aggie Pack Radio (UCD). Pre-game coverage starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Weather Forecast
Davis’ temperate December weather sets up a passer-friendly day. Expect sunny skies with temperatures around 58°F at kickoff, warming to 62°F by the fourth quarter. Light winds from the northwest at 4-7 mph (gusts to 10 mph), with 0% chance of precipitation. Conditions are near-perfect for both teams, though the slight breeze could affect deep kicks—humidity at 65% adds minimal fatigue.
Injury Report
Both rosters are mostly intact after second-round wins, but UC Davis’ backfield depth is thinned by a key rusher’s season-ending issue, while Illinois State monitors a wideout post-upset heroics. No long-term QB concerns.
| Team | Player | Position | Injury | Status | Estimated Return | Notes |
| ISU | Daniel Sobkowicz | WR | Lower Body | Probable | Dec. 13 | Scored game-winner vs. NDSU (Dec. 6); full practice, but limited snaps if tweaked—team-high 75 rec YDS in playoffs. |
| ISU | None major | – | – | – | – | Clean bill post-Fargodome; RB Cole Dawson (68 rush YDS last game) cleared. |
| UCD | Carter Vargas | RB | Knee | OUT (Season) | 2026 | Second-leading rusher (445 YDS, 5 TD); major void in backfield—shifts load to Chez Mellusi/Fisher. |
| UCD | None major | – | – | – | – | O-line intact; QB Keegan Pinnick (348 pass YDS vs. NAU) fully healthy. |
Lineup tweak: UC Davis elevates freshman RB Sinahiokala-Wheeler for Vargas’ touches.
Key Player Matchups
UC Davis’ pass-heavy scheme (No. 5 FCS pass eff.) challenges ISU’s coverage (No. 15 FCS pass def., 210 YPG allowed), while the Redbirds’ rushing (188 rush YPG) tests Aggies’ front (No. 22 FCS rush def.). Weather aids big plays.
Tommy Rittenhouse (ISU, QB) vs. UCD Secondary (CB Jalon McKinney/Safety Jordan Morales): Rittenhouse’s 2,500+ pass YDS and 20 TDs (191 YDS vs. NDSU) drive the upset magic. McKinney’s 4 INTs lead UCD’s ballhawks (No. 15 FCS TO forced), but Rittenhouse’s accuracy (61% comp) picks apart zones. Edge: Rittenhouse—ISU’s 55% 3rd-down rate exploits UCD’s 40% red-zone def.
Cole Dawson (ISU, RB) vs. UCD Front Seven (LB Tyce Johnson/DL Jalen Haynes): Dawson’s 1,000+ rush YDS and 10 TDs (68 YDS vs. NDSU) control tempo. Johnson’s 90 tackles anchor, but Dawson’s burst (5.2 YPC) finds edges. Edge: Dawson—Redbirds’ O-line (No. 12 FCS sacks allowed) vs. UCD’s 3.5 sacks/game.
Keegan Pinnick (UCD, QB) vs. ISU Pass Rush (DE Jake Anderson/LB Nehemiah Martinez): Pinnick’s 3,000+ pass YDS, 25 TDs (325 YDS vs. IDST) fuel explosiveness. Anderson’s 8 sacks (strip-sack hero vs. NDSU) pressures, but Pinnick’s elusiveness (60 rush YDS/game) dodges. Edge: Pinnick—Aggies’ protection (No. 10 FCS) shines.
Masen Johnson (UCD, WR) vs. ISU CBs: Johnson’s 800+ rec YDS (114 YDS vs. NAU) creates YAC. ISU’s secondary top-10 in pass eff. def., but Johnson’s speed tests. Edge: Even—Slot fades could flip momentum.
Watch: ISU TE Luke Mailander’s red-zone mismatches vs. UCD’s box; UCD RB Chez Mellusi’s power (108 YDS vs. IDST) vs. ISU’s rotation.
Team Records and Standings Context
Illinois State Redbirds: 10-4 (.714 win%). 5-2 road (playoff road-tested). MVFC: 3rd (5-3). Off: 29.8 PPG (No. 18 FCS), 163.7 rush YPG (No. 15); Def: 25.5 PPG allowed (No. 25 FCS), +10 TO margin.
UC Davis Aggies: 9-3 (.750 win%). 4-2 home (strong Aggie Pack). Big Sky: 3rd (6-2). Off: 32.2 PPG (No. 12 FCS), 285.4 pass YPG (No. 5); Def: 24.0 PPG allowed (No. 20 FCS), balanced but pass-vulnerable (199 pass YPG allowed).
MVFC’s grit (top-5 conf. TO forced) vs. Big Sky’s air raid (top-3 conf. pass YPG)—UCD’s home xYPP (2.0) edges ISU’s road dips.
Recent Team Forms
ISU’s upset fuels confidence; UCD’s playoff romp shows firepower amid Vargas’ absence.
Redbirds Last 5 Games (3-2):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | @ North Dakota State (Playoff) | W 29-28 | Rittenhouse TD pass seals upset; D forces 2 TOs despite 5 INTs thrown. |
| Nov 22 | vs. Indiana State | W 35-21 | Dawson 120 rush YDS; balanced (200 rush/250 pass). |
| Nov 15 | @ Northern Iowa | W 28-24 | Sobkowicz 100 rec YDS; comeback from 14-pt deficit. |
| Nov 8 | vs. Murray State | L 31-28 | Close conf. loss; held offense to 300 YDS. |
| Nov 1 | @ South Dakota State | L 24-17 | Defensive battle; Rittenhouse 200 pass YDS in defeat. |
Form: 28.0 PPG scored, 24.4 allowed last 5; 3-2 ATS as underdogs.
Aggies Last 5 Games (4-1):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec 6 | vs. Rhode Island (Playoff) | W 47-20 | Pinnick 5 TD passes; 500+ total YDS, D clamps (1 TD allowed). |
| Nov 22 | vs. Eastern Washington | W 38-24 | Fisher 108 rush YDS; aerial barrage (300 pass). |
| Nov 15 | @ Montana | L 31-28 | Rivalry heartbreaker; outgained 400-350 but late miss. |
| Nov 8 | @ Sacramento State | W 34-27 | Pinnick 3 TD passes; road control with 2 TOs forced. |
| Nov 1 | vs. Idaho State | L 38-36 | Thriller; Gbatu Jr. 108 rec YDS in high-scorer. |
Form: 37.0 PPG scored, 26.0 allowed last 5; 4-1 ATS as favorites.
Conference vs Conference
MVFC prioritizes physical run games and TO battles (avg. 28.5 PPG scored, 22.1 allowed), with ISU excelling in margins (+10). Big Sky leans pass-heavy tempo (avg. 32.4 PPG scored, 24.8 allowed), where UCD ranks high. Historical: MVFC 33-24 all-time playoffs vs. Big Sky since 1980, but Big Sky’s 62% home win rate vs. MVFC evens it. UCD’s stadium scoring (35.0 PPG) exploits MVFC road defenses’ 28% upset rate.
Series History
Brief but decisive—UC Davis leads 1-0 all-time after a 2024 second-round rout. This is the second meeting overall.
All-Time Record: UC Davis leads 1-0 (1.000 win% for UCD).
Regular Season Only: N/A.
Playoffs: UCD 1-0.
Last Meeting: Dec. 7, 2024 (UCD 42-10 win @ home; Pinnick 300+ pass YDS).
At UC Davis Health Stadium: UCD 1-0.
Trends: Overs in 1/1 (52 total); UCD 1-0 SU/ATS as favorite.
Rivalry nascent, but Aggies’ home dominance looms.
Betting Trends
Spread: UCD covers in 6/9 home games; ISU 4-3 ATS road.
Total: Over in 7/14 ISU games (avg. 55.3 total); UCD 6-6 O/U.
ML: Public 55% on UCD; sharp on total.
ISU: 8-5-1 ATS season (61%); 5-3 as underdogs. 4-3 O/U last 7 road. Vs. Big Sky: 2-3 ATS historical.
UCD: 7-5 ATS (58%); 5-3 as favorites. 5-4 O/U home. Vs. MVFC: 1-0 ATS in series.
Head-to-Head: Favorites 1-0 SU/ATS; over 100% (small sample).
Historical Betting Results
Limited to one game: 2024 (UCD -10 home): Aggies covered 42-10 (O 52). Comparable MVFC @ Big Sky QF: Home favorites 70% ATS; avg. total 56.0 (over line in 60%).
2024 (UCD -10): Covered (O).
2023 (Similar: MTST -6 vs. SAC): Covered (U 55). Avg.: Home teams 80% ATS; 50% overs.
Predicted Score: UC Davis 34, Illinois State 27
Game Odds
Illinois State Redbirds 58.5
UC Davis Aggies – 2.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, December 12, 2025
