The American Athletic Conference (AAC) Championship Game on Friday night pits two of the league’s breakout stories against each other in a high-stakes clash with major College Football Playoff implications. The No. 20 North Texas Mean Green (11-1, 7-1 AAC), riding an undefeated November and the nation’s top-scoring offense, face the No. 21 Tulane Green Wave (10-2, 7-1 AAC), who have quietly built a balanced attack under second-year head coach Jon Sumrall. This rematch of a 2024 regular-season thriller (Tulane won 45-37) could decide the AAC’s automatic CFP bid, with the winner earning a likely spot in the 12-team field. North Texas enters as a slight road favorite, but Tulane’s home-field edge at Yulman Stadium adds intrigue to what projects as a shootout.
Venue and Game Details
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, Louisiana (Capacity: 30,000; home of the Tulane Green Wave since 2014).
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. CT).
Broadcast: ABC (with streaming on ESPN App, Fubo, Sling TV, and YouTube TV).
Weather Forecast
Expect mild, clear conditions at kickoff in New Orleans, with temperatures around 56°F and low humidity. Winds will be light (5-10 mph from the north), favoring a pass-heavy game for both teams. No precipitation is forecasted, though head coach Eric Morris noted potential for rain earlier in the week—current models show dry skies. This setup benefits the high-powered offenses, which have combined to average over 900 yards per game in conference play.
Injury Report
Both teams enter relatively healthy, with no star players ruled out, but North Texas has a few depth concerns on the defensive line that could impact run defense against Tulane’s mobile QB. Tulane’s injury list appears clean based on the latest updates.
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Injury Details |
| North Texas | Jayden Becks | RB | Questionable | Undisclosed; missed practice this week. |
| North Texas | B. Hayes | DL | Questionable | Undisclosed; limited in recent sessions. |
| North Texas | W. Smith | DL | Questionable | Undisclosed; uncertain for Friday. |
| Tulane | (No major injuries reported) | – | – | Full roster available. |
North Texas RB Caleb Hawkins (1,200+ rushing yards) is fully cleared and remains the focal point of the offense.
Key Player Matchups
This game’s fireworks will hinge on explosive individual battles, particularly in the trenches and secondary, where both teams’ weaknesses could be exploited. North Texas’ air raid vs. Tulane’s opportunistic defense sets the tone.
North Texas RB Caleb Hawkins vs. Tulane LB Dorian Williams: Hawkins (1,216 rush yards, 23 TDs, 6.3 YPC) is the nation’s most dynamic back, leading FBS with 26 total TDs. He’ll test Tulane’s front seven, which ranks 71st in red-zone defense (88% TD rate allowed). Williams (team-high 89 tackles) must contain Hawkins in space—Tulane has struggled vs. elusive runners (4.9 YPC allowed in conference).
Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff vs. North Texas DE Mazin Richards: Retzlaff (2,717 pass yards, 14 TDs, 62.6% completion) adds a dual-threat element with 561 rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground. Richards (8 sacks) leads a Mean Green pass rush that’s forced 2.1 turnovers per game (4th nationally). If Richards disrupts Retzlaff’s rhythm early, Tulane’s offense (6.28 YPP) could stall.
North Texas WR Wyatt Young vs. Tulane CB Jarius Monroe: Young (1,203 rec yards, 11 TDs, 19.4 YPR) is QB Drew Mestemaker’s top target in the nation’s No. 2 passing attack (3,835 yards). Monroe (3 INTs) anchors a secondary that’s vulnerable deep (207.9 pass yards allowed per game). Young’s big-play ability (10 catches of 50+ yards) could exploit Tulane’s 34th-ranked pass defense.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker vs. Tulane S Jaden Lewis: The walk-on turned star (3,835 pass yards, 70.9% completion, 29 TDs) leads FBS in passing efficiency. Lewis (75 tackles, 2 INTs) is Tulane’s ball hawk, but North Texas’ low turnover rate (1.0 per game, 4th nationally) gives Mestemaker clean protection.
Overall, North Texas’ red-zone efficiency (95.3% TD rate, 2nd in FBS) vs. Tulane’s turnover margin (+0.4, 33rd) could swing momentum—expect 80+ combined points if these matchups tilt offensive.
Team Records and Season Overview
Both squads tied for the AAC title at 7-1 but split on head-to-head and strength of schedule (North Texas edged out via tiebreaker). North Texas boasts the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense (46.8 PPG) and total yards (511.8 per game), while Tulane ranks top-25 in total defense (372.3 yards allowed).
| Team | Overall Record | AAC Record | National Rank (AP) | Offensive PPG | Defensive PPG Allowed |
| North Texas | 11-1 | 7-1 | No. 20 | 46.8 | 25.8 |
| Tulane | 10-2 | 7-1 | No. 21 | 31.8 | 22.9 |
North Texas: Coached by Eric Morris (now headed to Oklahoma State), the Mean Green shattered program records with a 5-0 start and ranked AP Poll entry (first since 1959). Losses: Only to a top-10 foe early.
Tulane: Sumrall’s squad (he’s bound for Florida) rebounded from an Ole Miss loss with four straight wins, emphasizing balance (167.8 rush PPG in conference).
Recent Team Forms
North Texas enters on fire with a six-game win streak, averaging 54.5 PPG in November while holding foes under 20. Tulane has won four straight but shown vulnerability in close games (2-2 in one-score contests).
North Texas Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Nov 22 | Rice | W 56-24 | Mestemaker: 4 TD passes |
| Nov 15 | Houston | W 53-24 | Hawkins: 150 rush yards, 3 TDs |
| Nov 8 | at Memphis | W 42-17 | Defense: 3 INTs |
| Nov 1 | FAU | W 48-10 | Young: 150 rec yards |
| Oct 25 | Tulsa | W 38-21 | Total yards: 550+ |
Tulane Last 5 Games:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Stats |
| Nov 29 | Charlotte | W 37-13 | Retzlaff: 231 pass, 1 rush TD |
| Nov 22 | at FAU | W 35-24 | Defense: 2 turnovers forced |
| Nov 15 | ECU | W 38-32 | Retzlaff: 332 pass yards |
| Nov 7 | Rice | W 26-19 | Ground game: 150+ yards |
| Oct 30 | at USF | L 48-26 | Struggled in red zone |
Series History
Tulane owns a perfect 3-0 edge since joining the AAC in 2013, outscoring North Texas 104-86 (34.7-28.7 PPG). All games have been decided by eight points or less, with high totals (average 63.3 points). North Texas has never won in New Orleans (0-2 away).
| Date | Location | Result (UNT Score – TUL Score) | Notes |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Denton, TX | L 37-45 | High-scoring thriller |
| Oct 21, 2023 | New Orleans, LA | L 28-35 | Tulane comeback win |
| Oct 5, 2013 | New Orleans, LA | L 21-24 | Narrow AAC opener loss |
Tulane’s 3-game win streak includes strong home performances, but North Texas’ revamped offense (up 200+ YPG from 2024) could flip the script.
Betting Trends
North Texas: 10-2 ATS (83.3%), covering six straight and 7-1 in conference. 8-4 O/U, with overs in 5 of last 6 road games. Public 55% on UNT ML.
Tulane: 5-7 ATS (41.7%), covering just 2 of last 7; 3-2 ATS in last 5 overall. 7-5 O/U, with unders in 4 of 5 home wins. Public 52% on Tulane +2.5.
Head-to-Head: All 3 games hit the over; Tulane 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
Advanced: North Texas +6.8 in turnover margin (public fading defense); models project 70% chance of 60+ total points.
Sharp action favors North Texas (60% handle on spread) and the over (55% tickets).
Projected score: North Texas Mean Green 35, Tulane Green Wave 32
Game Odds
North Texas Mean Green – 2.5
Tulane Green Wave 66.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 4, 2025
