Event details
Venue location: Churchill Downs, 700 Central Ave, Louisville, Kentucky
Date and post time: Thursday, November 27, 2025. Race 10. Post near the late afternoon card; the Falls City sits as a late feature on the program. Thanksgiving scheduling aligns with Churchill’s tradition for this G3 event.
Surface and distance: Dirt, 1 ⅛ miles (approx. 1810 m)
Class and purse: Grade III, fillies and mares 3YO+, stakes purse listed for the Thanksgiving feature (historically $400,000; contemporary listings vary by source).
Expected weather and track: Late-fall cold with listed temperature around 5 °C on card line-items; dirt route likely “fast” to “good” barring precipitation.
Field overview and key attributes
Pace map and race shape
Early speed: Chilled (rail), Alpine Princess, Corningstone. Chilled’s rail draw and Luis Saez’s tendencies suggest assertive placement to secure the pocket or lead.
Press/stalkers: Royal Spa, Standoutsensation, In Just My Heels. These profiles fit Churchill’s flow—sit second flight and launch mid-stretch.
Closers: Raging Sea, Neon Icon, Quietside. If the front group gets chippy through the first two calls, late runners gain significantly.
Direct answer: Pace projects honest-to-brisk early, favoring class stalkers with proven Churchill stretch punch.
Horse-by-horse analysis
Chilled (Post 1)
Edge: Rail draw, live recent win at Keeneland, and Churchill familiarity; Saez is adept at nursing speed at 9f.
Risk: Pressure from outside pace could pin her; needs to relax into even fractions.
Verdict: Major win threat if she controls the tempo.
Raging Sea (Post 2)
Edge: Deep graded résumé, high hit rate, Prat’s timing fits stretch-running pattern; perfectly placed off the layoff per form notes.
Risk: Freshness and race fitness second half of the turn.
Verdict: The class barometer; tops if pace heats even slightly.
In Just My Heels (Post 3)
Edge: Reliable Churchill efforts, sits handy without dueling, consistent figures.
Risk: Needs a career-best late punch to beat the top pair.
Verdict: Underneath key—exacta/tri value.
Alpine Princess (Post 4)
Edge: Cox/Ortiz Jr. combo; broad form profile with high place rate; can press or track.
Risk: If asked too soon, could soften late versus elite closers.
Verdict: Win viable; most likely to make the exacta with a measured ride.
Quietside (Post 5)
Edge: Prior campaign showed winning consistency; rebounds are common second-up.
Risk: Needs a form rebound after Keeneland eighth when fresh.
Verdict: Each-way candidate if the board floats.
Neon Icon (Post 6)
Edge: Late pace potential, Torres excels at patient trips.
Risk: Pace dependence; may flatten if fractions are moderate.
Verdict: Deep exotics only unless track biases favor closers.
Royal Spa (Post 7)
Edge: Multiple Churchill wins; Gaffalione knows how to time the inside-to-out kick here.
Risk: Comes off a 10-week spell; needs smooth trip from midgate.
Verdict: Win contender; strong exacta anchor.
Standoutsensation (Post 8)
Edge: Durable placer; Amoss barn is crafty with trip horses.
Risk: Class ceiling at G3 versus proven graded winners.
Verdict: Tri/super value; hard to leave off verticals.
Corningstone (Post 9)
Edge: Enters hot off back-to-back wins; confidence runner; McPeek can spike at Churchill.
Risk: Class rise and pace tougher than Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Verdict: Sneaky chance if he tucks behind speed and saves ground.
Track tendencies and setup at Churchill Downs dirt route
Stretch dynamics: The 1 ⅛ mile route rewards horses with sustained, not spiky, late pace—stalkers are favored if early tempo is contested.
Rail impact: Post 1 can be golden if the horse breaks clean and relaxes; rail speed often holds if fractions are evenly rationed.
Seasonal conditions: Cool temperatures typically firm up the dirt; fast-to-good expected unless rain intrudes.
