Venue & Game Details
Stadium: UFCU Stadium (Capacity: ~28,000)
Location: San Marcos, Texas
Kickoff Time: 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT
Broadcast: ESPN+ 11][12]
Weather Forecast (San Marcos, TX)
Conditions: Clear skies, warm evening
Kickoff Temp: 81°F (27°C)
Wind: 6–9 mph (SE)
Precipitation:
Impact: Excellent football weather; no weather-related concerns.
Injury Report
Troy Trojans: No major injuries reported.
Texas State Bobcats: No major injuries reported.
(Both teams enter this matchup healthy.)
Key Player Matchups
QB Tucker Kilcrease (Troy) vs. Texas State Secondary
Kilcrease: 416 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs, 50% completion [11].
Texas State Pass Defense: Allowing 200 YPG (#53 FBS).
RB Tae Meadows (Troy) vs. LB Treylin Payne (Texas State)
Meadows: 416 yards, 3 TDs, 5.5 YPC.
Payne: 37 tackles, 2 TFL, defensive captain.
WR Tray Taylor (Troy) vs. CB Ryan Nolan (Texas State)
Taylor: 191 yards, 2 TDs.
Nolan: 2 INTs, 18 tackles.
QB Brad Jackson (Texas State) vs. Troy Secondary
Jackson: 1,094 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 67.2% completion [11].
Troy Pass Defense: Allowing 170 YPG (#22 FBS).
RB Lincoln Pare (Texas State) vs. Troy Front Seven
Pare: 468 yards, 5 TDs, 5.7 YPC.
Troy Run Defense: Allowing 158.4 YPG (#96 FBS).
WR Beau Sparks (Texas State) vs. CB Deshaun Lafayette (Troy)
Sparks: 428 yards, 5 TDs.
Lafayette: 51 tackles, 1 INT.
Recent Team Form
Troy Trojans
Last game: Defeated South Alabama 31-24 (OT).
Offense: 322.8 YPG (#117), 22.6 PPG (#103).
Defense: 328.4 YPG allowed (#46), 23.2 PPG allowed (#65).
Strength: Top-25 pass defense.
Weakness: Offensive inconsistency, -4 turnover margin.
Texas State Bobcats
Last game: Lost 31-30 to Arkansas State.
Offense: 456.6 YPG (#24), 35 PPG (#39).
Defense: 382 YPG allowed (#88), 26.2 PPG allowed (#87).
Strength: Balanced attack (235 rush YPG, #14 nationally).
Weakness: Run defense (#119 nationally, 182 YPG allowed).
Series History
All-Time Record: Troy leads 13–2.
Current Streak: Texas State won last meeting (2024, 38-17).
Last Meeting: 2024 – Texas State 38, Troy 17 (in Troy).
At San Marcos: Troy leads 5–1.
Notable: Troy had won 12 straight (1998–2023) before Texas State’s upset last year.
Betting Trends
Troy:
3-2 ATS this season.
1-0 ATS as 9.5+ point underdog.
2 of 5 games Over.
Texas State:
2-3 ATS this season.
1-2 ATS as 9.5+ point favorite.
2 of 5 games Over.
Head-to-Head:
Troy 12-1 SU vs. Texas State before 2024.
Last 5 meetings: Troy 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS.
3 of last 5 meetings went Under.
Historical Betting Results
2024: Texas State +7, upset win (38-17).
2023: Troy -18, covered (31-13).
2022: Troy -14, covered (17-14).
2021: Troy -5, covered (31-28).
2020: Troy -7, covered (37-17).
Projected Score: Texas State 31, Troy 21
Game Odds
Troy Trojans 54.5
Texas State Bobcats – 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, October 10, 2025
