FCS-CFB Game Preview: UC Davis Aggies (3-1) vs. Cal Poly Mustangs (3-2)

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Venue & Game Info

Stadium: Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium (capacity ~11,000)

Location: San Luis Obispo, California

Kickoff Time: 5:00 PM PT (8:00 PM ET)

Broadcast: ESPN+

Special Note: This is Cal Poly’s Homecoming Game 2025, with special promotions and a large crowd expected.

Weather Forecast (San Luis Obispo, CA)

Conditions: Clear skies, mild evening

Temperature: ~68°F at kickoff, cooling into the low 60s by night

Wind: 4–6 mph

Impact: Ideal football weather; no major effect on gameplay

Injury Report

UC Davis Aggies:

QB Caden Pinnick – Probable (minor shoulder soreness)

WR Samuel Gbatu Jr. – Probable (ankle tweak)

Cal Poly Mustangs:

QB Ty Dieffenbach – Probable (hand bruise, expected to play)

WR Michael Briscoe – Probable (hamstring tightness)

Key Player Matchups

QB Caden Pinnick (UC Davis) vs Cal Poly Secondary

Pinnick: 753 passing yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs; also adds mobility with 100 rushing yards.

RB Jordan Fisher (UC Davis) vs LB Brian Dukes Jr. (Cal Poly)

Fisher: 338 rushing yards, 3 TDs; Dukes Jr. is fresh off a Defensive Player of the Week honor with 2 INTs vs Sac State.

QB Ty Dieffenbach (Cal Poly) vs UC Davis Pass Rush

Dieffenbach: 579 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT; efficient but faces a strong UC Davis front.

WR Michael Briscoe (Cal Poly) vs CB Jalen Smith (UC Davis)

Briscoe: 492 receiving yards, 7 TDs; Smith leads UC Davis in pass breakups.

Recent Team Form

UC Davis Aggies (3–1, 1–0 Big Sky, ranked #7 FCS)

W 34–12 vs Weber State

W 50–34 vs Southern Utah

L 70–10 @ Washington (FBS)

W 31–24 @ Utah Tech

Offense: 31.2 PPG Defense: 31.5 PPG

Cal Poly Mustangs (3–2, 1–0 Big Sky)

W 32–24 @ Sacramento State (#21)

L 35–17 @ Stephen F. Austin

W 56–7 vs Western Oregon

L 63–9 @ Utah (FBS)

W 41–17 @ San Diego

Offense: 31.0 PPG Defense: 29.6 PPG

Series History

All‑time: UC Davis leads 27–20–2

Recent:

2024: UC Davis 31–13

2023: UC Davis 17–13

2022: UC Davis 59–17

Trend: UC Davis has won 3 straight, all by double digits.

ATS (Against the Spread):

UC Davis: 3–1 ATS last 4

Cal Poly: 2–3 ATS last 5

Historical Betting Results:

UC Davis has covered in 3 straight vs Cal Poly

Cal Poly has failed to cover in 4 of last 6 Big Sky games

Projected Score: UC Davis 34 – Cal Poly 24

Game Odds

UC Davis Aggies               – 9.5

Cal Poly Mustangs           56

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, October 3, 2025