Venue & Game Details
- Event: 2025 WNBA Playoffs – Semifinals (Best-of-5 series)
- Tip-off Time: 9:30 PM ET (6:30 PM PT)
- Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona (Capacity ~17,000)
- Broadcast: ESPN2 (national), local radio affiliates
Injury Report
- Minnesota Lynx:
- DiJonai Carrington – Out for season (foot)
- Phoenix Mercury:
- No major injuries reported
Key Player Matchups
- Napheesa Collier (Lynx) vs. Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)
Collier is averaging 22.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG in the postseason, anchoring Minnesota’s offense. Thomas has been Phoenix’s engine with 15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG, nearly averaging a triple-double. - Kayla McBride (Lynx) vs. Satou Sabally (Mercury)
McBride’s perimeter shooting (2.1 made 3s per game over her last 10) stretches defenses. Sabally has been Phoenix’s X-factor, averaging 15.3 PPG in her last 10. - Courtney Williams (Lynx) vs. Kahleah Copper (Mercury)
Williams provides glue and playmaking for Minnesota, while Copper’s slashing ability and defensive energy give Phoenix a transition edge.
Recent Team Form
- Minnesota Lynx (Last 10 games):
- Record: 7–3
- Averaging 84.0 PPG, shooting 47.3% FG
- Defense: Allowing just 75.0 PPG
- Strength: Balanced scoring, elite defense
- Phoenix Mercury (Last 10 games):
- Record: 5–5
- Averaging 79.5 PPG, shooting 41.3% FG
- Defense: Allowing 79.4 PPG
- Strength: Depth contributions, rebounding (34.7 RPG, 3rd in West)
Conference vs. Conference
- Both teams are Western Conference rivals.
- Minnesota: 20–4 vs. Western opponents in 2025, the league’s best mark.
- Phoenix: 13–11 vs. Western opponents, middle of the pack.
Series History
- 2025 Regular Season: Minnesota won 2 of 3 matchups.
- Playoff History: Long-standing rivalry; the Lynx and Mercury have met multiple times in the postseason, including classic battles in the 2010s.
- Current Series: Tied 1–1 after Minnesota won Game 1 and Phoenix rallied in OT to steal Game 2.
Betting Trends:
- Lynx are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Mercury are 5-5 ATS in their last 10.
- The Over has hit in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games.
- Minnesota has covered in 5 of its last 7 road games.
Historical Betting Results (Modeled)
- 2024 Regular Season: Lynx -3.5 (covered, won 88–79)
- 2023 Regular Season: Mercury +7.5 (covered, lost 89–84)
- 2022 Regular Season: Lynx -5.5 (covered, won 92–78)
