FCS-CFB Game Preview: Cal Poly Mustangs (2-1) vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (1-2)

0
22

Kickoff: 7:00 PM CT (5:00 PM PT)
Venue: Homer Bryce Stadium (Jimmy W. Murphy Field), Nacogdoches, Texas (Capacity: ~14,575)
Broadcast: ESPN+ / SFAJacks.com Radio

Weather Forecast (Nacogdoches, TX)

Temperature: ~83°F (28°C) at kickoff, cooling into the mid-70s by the 4th quarter

Conditions: Mostly clear skies, light winds (5–7 mph)

Impact: Warm but comfortable; no weather disruptions expected.

Injury Report

Cal Poly (2–1, Big Sky):

QB Sam Huard – Healthy; leading one of the nation’s top passing offenses.

WR Chris Coleman – Healthy; team’s top target, averaging 90+ YPG.

RB rotation – Healthy; balanced but pass-first offense.

Defense – No major injuries reported.

Stephen F. Austin (1–2, United Athletic Conference):

QB Brian Yarbrough – Healthy; steady but turnover-prone.

RB Miles Reed – Healthy; averaging 4.5 YPC.

WR Xavier Gipson – Healthy; explosive playmaker, averaging 80+ YPG.

Defense – Healthy; unit has struggled against high-powered passing attacks.

Key Player Matchups

QB Sam Huard (Cal Poly) vs. SFA Secondary

Huard leads the nation’s 6th-ranked passing offense; SFA has been vulnerable through the air.

WR Chris Coleman (Cal Poly) vs. CB1 (SFA)

Coleman is Huard’s go-to target; SFA must double him to prevent explosive plays.

QB Brian Yarbrough (SFA) vs. Cal Poly Pass Rush

Yarbrough has been inconsistent; Cal Poly’s front seven must pressure him into mistakes.

WR Xavier Gipson (SFA) vs. Cal Poly Corners

Gipson is a game-breaker; if he gets loose, SFA can keep pace.

Recent Team Form

Cal Poly Mustangs (2–1)

9/13: W 56–7 vs. Western Oregon

9/6: L 41–10 @ Utah (#25 FBS)

8/30: W 41–17 vs. San Diego

Trend: Offense averaging 35+ PPG; defense opportunistic.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (1–2)

9/13: W 45–14 vs. Sul Ross State

9/6: L 38–21 @ Sam Houston

8/30: L 31–17 @ North Texas (FBS)

Trend: Offense averaging 27.7 PPG; defense allowing 27.7 PPG.

Series History

First-ever meeting between Cal Poly and Stephen F. Austin.

Betting Trends

Cal Poly:

2–3 SU in last 5 games.

3–2 ATS in last 5.

Overs hit in 3 of last 5.

Stephen F. Austin:

2–3 SU in last 5 games.

2–3 ATS in last 5.

Overs hit in 2 of last 5.

Head-to-Head: First-ever meeting.

Historical Betting Results

Cal Poly: Covers more often as a road underdog; overs common when offense finds rhythm.

Stephen F. Austin: Strong ATS at home under Carthel (20–6 at Homer Bryce since 2020).

Big Sky vs. UAC Trends: Big Sky teams cover ~59% of the time in September non-conference games.

Game Odds

Cal Poly Mustangs                                           52.5

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks                  – 12.5

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, September 19, 2025