MLB Game Preview: New York Mets (75-64) vs. Detroit Tigers (80-60)

Venue, Date & Time

• Date: Wednesday, September 3, 2025
• First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Comerica Park, 2100 Woodward Avenue, Detroit, MI 48226
• Surface: Natural Grass
• Broadcast: SNY (NYM), Bally Sports Detroit (DET), MLB Network (out‑of‑market), MLB.TV

Weather Forecast (Detroit, MI – First Pitch)

• Conditions: Mostly sunny
• Temperature: ~84°F (29°C)
• Wind: 6–8 mph out to left field
• Precipitation: <10% chance — no delays expected
• Impact: Slight boost to fly‑ball carry toward left; otherwise neutral hitting conditions

Injury Report

New York Mets

• Francisco Álvarez (C) – 10‑Day IL (Thumb)
• Reed Garrett (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (Elbow)
• Frankie Montas (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Elbow)
• Jesse Winker (OF) – Out for season (Back)
• Multiple pitchers on 60‑Day IL: Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, Drew Young, etc.

Detroit Tigers

• Matt Vierling (OF) – 10‑Day IL (Oblique)
• Parker Meadows (OF) – 10‑Day IL (Quad)
• Reese Olson (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Shoulder)
• Jason Foley (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Shoulder surgery)
• Several pitchers on 60‑Day IL: Jackson Jobe, José Urquidy, Ty Madden, Sean Guenther, Alex Cobb

Probable Pitchers & Matchup

New York – Clay Holmes (RHP)

• 2025 Stats: 11–6, 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 136 K
• Profile: Converted reliever thriving as a starter; heavy sinker generates ground balls, limits HRs.
• Recent Form: Solid August; relies on infield defense to convert outs.

Detroit – Casey Mize (RHP)

• 2025 Stats: 12–5, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 118 K
• Profile: Former No. 1 overall pick; mixes mid‑90s fastball with splitter/slider combo.
• Recent Form: Quality start machine; needs run support to beat top offenses.

Key Player Matchups

New York Mets Offense

• Juan Soto (RF): .257 AVG, 37 HR, 90 RBI — 4 HR in last 5 games; elite OBP threat.
• Pete Alonso (1B): .268 AVG, 32 HR, 112 RBI — power bat, RBI leader.
• Francisco Lindor (SS): .267 AVG, 27 SB, 20+ HR — speed/power blend.
• Brandon Nimmo (OF): .263 AVG, 27 2B, 22 HR — 8‑game hit streak.

Detroit Tigers Offense

• Riley Greene (LF): .270 AVG, 32 HR, 101 RBI — team leader in AVG, HR, RBI.
• Gleyber Torres (2B): .264 AVG, 14 HR — patient hitter with gap power.
• Spencer Torkelson (1B): .235 AVG, 28 HR — streaky slugger.
• Zach McKinstry (UTIL): .264 AVG, 11 HR, 11 3B — versatile bat with speed.

Matchup Spotlight:

• Soto/Alonso vs. Mize’s splitter — can they lift the ball in Comerica’s deep gaps?
• Greene/Torkelson vs. Holmes’ sinker — can they avoid pounding it into the ground?

Team Records & Recent Form

Recent Trends:

• Mets: Averaging 7.9 runs/game last 10; 21 HR in that span.
• Tigers: Averaging 4.7 runs/game last 10; bullpen ERA near 5.00 in that stretch.

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Mets lead 2–0 (scored 22 runs in first two games).
• Last Meeting: Mets 12, Tigers 5 (Sept. 2) — NYM hit 4 HR, including Soto’s 37th.
• At Comerica Park: Mets 3–1 in last 4 games.

Betting Trends

New York Mets

• 56–41 as favorite (57.7% win rate)
• 44–35 when favored at -130 or shorter
• Over in 7 of last 10 games

Detroit Tigers

• 19–22 as home underdog (46.3% win rate)
• Over in 5 of last 10 games
• 4–6 in last 10 overall

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Mets’ offense red‑hot; Tigers’ bullpen vulnerable.
• Holmes vs. Mize is close on paper, but NYM lineup depth gives edge.
• Comerica’s dimensions suppress HRs slightly, but Mets’ gap power plays well.