MLB Game Preview: Atlanta Braves (62-75) vs. Chicago Cubs (78-59)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 4:05 PM ET / 3:05 PM CT
• Venue: Wrigley Field, 1060 W. Addison Street, Chicago, IL 60613
• Broadcast: MARQ (Chicago), FDSSO (Atlanta), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (Wrigley Field)

• Conditions: Clear skies, pleasant afternoon
• Temperature: ~78°F (26°C) at first pitch
• Humidity: ~46%
• Wind: Light breeze ~6–8 mph out to left‑center
• Precipitation: 0% — no weather delays expected
• Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly with warm air aiding carry

Injury Report

Chicago Cubs

• Jameson Taillon (SP) – 15‑Day IL, groin strain
• Ryan Brasier (RP) – 15‑Day IL, groin strain
• Miguel Amaya (C) – 10‑Day IL, ankle sprain
• Mike Soroka (SP) – 15‑Day IL, shoulder strain
• Eli Morgan (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow impingement
• Justin Steele (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow surgery

Atlanta Braves

• Aaron Bummer (RP) – 15‑Day IL, shoulder inflammation
• Luke Williams (INF) – 10‑Day IL, oblique strain
• Austin Riley (3B) – 10‑Day IL, abdominal strain
• Grant Holmes (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow inflammation
• Spencer Schwellenbach (SP) – 60‑Day IL, fractured elbow
• AJ Smith‑Shawver (SP) – 60‑Day IL, calf/elbow (Tommy John)
• Reynaldo López (RP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder surgery
• Joe Jiménez (RP) – 60‑Day IL, knee surgery

Projected Starting Pitchers

• ATL: RHP Spencer Strider (5‑12, 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 105 K in 96.1 IP) – 8 quality starts; 9.8 K/9; coming off 7 IP, 1 ER vs. MIA.
• CHC: RHP Colin Rea (10‑6, 4.23 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 95 K in 132.2 IP) – 6 quality starts; 6.5 K/9; allowed 6 ER in last outing vs. SF.

Key Player Matchups

Chicago Cubs Offense

• Pete Crow‑Armstrong: 28 HR (15th MLB), 19th in RBI — power/speed threat in CF.
• Kyle Tucker: .270 AVG, 25 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 86 BB — .500 AVG over last 5 games.
• Seiya Suzuki: .247 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI — 3‑game hit streak, .353 AVG last 5 games.
• Dansby Swanson: 21 HR, .629 SLG over last 10 games.

Atlanta Braves Offense

• Matt Olson: .269 AVG, 21 HR, 77 RBI — 5‑game hit streak, .450 AVG last 5 games.
• Ozzie Albies: .234 AVG, 20 2B, 13 HR — .300 AVG last 10 games.
• Marcell Ozuna: .227 AVG, 20 HR, 86 BB — veteran power bat.
• Michael Harris II: .251 AVG, 21 2B, 6 3B, 17 HR — gap‑to‑gap threat with speed.

Recent Form

Chicago Cubs

• Last 10: 5‑5 (.251 AVG, 4.60 ERA, +1 run diff)
• Home record: 41‑25
• 13 HR in last 10 games; slugging .439 in span

Atlanta Braves

• Last 10: 4‑6 (.238 AVG, 5.47 ERA, ‑7 run diff)
• Road record: 29‑42
• 11 HR in last 10 games; slugging .381 in span

Series History

• All‑Time: Cubs lead 1,252–1,063 (.541 win pct)
• 2024 Season: Braves won 4‑2
• Last Meeting: May 23, 2024 — Braves won 3‑0 at Wrigley

Betting Trends

Chicago Cubs

• 63.3% win rate as favorite (62‑36)
• 57‑28 when favored at -122 or shorter
• 2‑8 ATS last 10 games
• Under in 6 of last 10

Atlanta Braves

• 31.8% win rate as underdog (14‑30)
• 9‑23 when +102 or longer
• 6‑4 ATS last 10 games
• Under in 5 of last 10

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Both starters with ERAs over 4.00 and middling WHIPs
• Cubs’ strong home record vs. Braves’ road struggles
• Warm weather + light wind out = slight boost to power bats
• Both bullpens middle‑tier in save rate (CHC 70%, ATL 60.5%)