MLB Game Preview: Chicago White Sox (49-88) vs. Minnesota Twins (62-74)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 2:10 PM ET
• Venue: Target Field, 1 Twins Way, Minneapolis, MN 55403
• Broadcast: MNNT (Minnesota), CHSN (Chicago), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (Target Field)

• Conditions: Mild, partly cloudy
• Temperature: ~76°F (24°C) at first pitch
• Humidity: ~48%
• Wind: 6–8 mph, light crosswind from left to right field
• Precipitation: <5% chance — no delays expected
• Impact: Neutral to slightly hitter‑friendly

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

• Miguel Vargas (3B) – 10‑Day IL, hand sprain
• Luis Robert Jr. (CF) – 10‑Day IL, hamstring
• Elvis Peguero (RP) – 15‑Day IL, elbow
• Owen White (SP) – 15‑Day IL, hip
• Dan Altavilla (RP) – 15‑Day IL, lat strain
• Miguel Castro (RP) – 60‑Day IL, knee
• Prelander Berroa (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Ky Bush (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Drew Thorpe (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Minnesota Twins

• Alan Roden (OF) – 60‑Day IL, thumb
• Christian Vázquez (C) – 10‑Day IL, shoulder
• Pablo López (SP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder (rehab assignment underway)
• David Festa (SP) – 15‑Day IL, shoulder
• Anthony Misiewicz (RP) – 15‑Day IL, shoulder

Projected Starting Pitchers

• CWS: RHP Aaron Civale – Season debut; career 42‑44, 4.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 725 IP.
• MIN: RHP Bailey Ober (4‑7, 5.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 96 K in 119.2 IP) – 8 quality starts; 1.50 ERA in 1 start vs. CWS this year.

Key Player Matchups

Minnesota Twins Offense

• Byron Buxton: .271 AVG, 29 HR, 70 RBI — 4 HR in last 5 games.
• Trevor Larnach: .249 AVG, 16 HR, 45 BB — .438 AVG over last 5 games.
• Brooks Lee: .244 AVG, 14 HR, 26 BB — steady middle‑order bat.
• Ryan Jeffers: .260 AVG, 24 2B, 9 HR — solid OBP threat.

Chicago White Sox Offense

• Lenyn Sosa: .269 AVG, 18 HR, 61 RBI — team leader in all three categories.
• Andrew Benintendi: .240 AVG, 15 HR — 7‑game hit streak (.324 AVG in span).
• Colson Montgomery: 15 HR in first 46 career games — 3 HR vs. MIN last series.
• Mike Tauchman: .272 AVG, 8 HR — OBP‑driven table‑setter.

Recent Form

Minnesota Twins

• Last 10: 4‑6 (.241 AVG, 7.22 ERA, -21 run diff)
• Home record: 35‑32
• Won 2 of 3 vs. Padres to snap 5‑series losing streak

Chicago White Sox

• Last 10: 4‑6 (.262 AVG, 4.89 ERA, -10 run diff)
• Road record: 19‑46
• Beat Yankees 3‑2 Sunday to snap 5‑game skid

Series History

• 2025 Season: Twins lead 5‑4
• 2024 Season: Twins won 12‑7
• Last meeting: White Sox took 2 of 3 in Chicago (Aug. 22‑24, 2025)
• All‑time: Twins lead 1,168–1,127

Betting Trends

Minnesota Twins

• 49.4% win rate as favorite (38‑39)
• 10‑7 when favored at -170 or shorter
• Over in 62 of 135 games (45.9%)
• 70‑65 ATS overall

Chicago White Sox

• 35.6% win rate as underdog (48‑87)
• 29.6% win rate when +145 or longer
• Over in 61 of 137 games (44.5%)
• 78‑59 ATS overall

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Twins’ home‑field edge & Buxton’s hot streak
• Civale’s first start in over a year — potential rust factor
• Ober’s fly‑ball tendencies vs. CWS’ low slugging (.373)
• Both bullpens bottom‑10 in save rate (CWS 45.9%, MIN 56.8%)