MLB Game Preview: Cleveland Guardians (68-67) vs. Boston Red Sox (76-62)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 1:35 PM ET
• Venue: Fenway Park, 4 Jersey Street, Boston, MA 02215
• Broadcast: NESN (Boston), CLEG (Cleveland), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast (Fenway Park)

• Conditions: Sunny, 83°F (28°C)
• Humidity: ~45%
• Wind: ~7 mph, light breeze from southwest toward right field
• Precipitation: 0% — ideal hitting and fielding conditions

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

• Wilyer Abreu (OF) – 10‑Day IL, calf strain
• Marcelo Mayer (SS) – 10‑Day IL, wrist
• Triston Casas (1B) – 60‑Day IL, knee
• Liam Hendriks (RP) – 60‑Day IL, hip
• Hunter Dobbins (SP) – 60‑Day IL, ACL
• Luis Guerrero (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Richard Fitts (SP) – 15‑Day IL, biceps
• Tanner Houck (SP) – 60‑Day IL, flexor strain
• Josh Winckowski (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Patrick Sandoval (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Kutter Crawford (SP) – 60‑Day IL, knee

Cleveland Guardians

• Gabriel Arias (INF) – Day‑to‑day, hand
• Lane Thomas (OF) – 10‑Day IL, foot
• Ben Lively (SP) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Will Brennan (OF) – 60‑Day IL, forearm
• Andrew Walters (RP) – 60‑Day IL, lat strain
• Sam Hentges (RP) – 60‑Day IL, shoulder
• John Means (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Projected Starting Pitchers

• CLE: LHP Parker Messick (1‑0, 0.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 12 K in 13.2 IP) – Two starts, both quality; opponents hitting .224 against him.
• BOS: RHP Brayan Bello (10‑6, 2.99 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 108 K in 141.2 IP) – Three straight quality starts; 17 consecutive outings of 5+ IP.

Key Player Matchups

Guardians Offense

• José Ramírez: .283 AVG, 26 HR, 68 RBI, 36 SB — elite contact/power blend; 9.7% BB rate, 10.8% K rate.
• Steven Kwan: .270 AVG, 22 2B, 10 HR, 14 SB — high‑contact leadoff bat.
• Kyle Manzardo: .233 AVG, 23 HR, .469 SLG — power threat in middle order.
• Angel Martinez: .226 AVG, 21 2B, 10 HR — extra‑base hit potential.

Red Sox Offense

• Jarren Duran: .260 AVG, 14 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB — speed/power combo; .788 OPS.
• Trevor Story: .256 AVG, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 24 SB — team leader in HR & RBI.
• Ceddanne Rafaela: .250 AVG, 29 2B, 15 HR — gap‑to‑gap hitter with speed.
• Alex Bregman: .287 AVG, 16 HR, .372 OBP — disciplined middle‑order bat.

Recent Form

Cleveland Guardians

• Last 10: 4‑6 (.163 AVG, 4.39 ERA, -22 run diff)
• Road record: 33‑34
• Offensive struggles: 0 runs in 3 of last 7 games

Boston Red Sox

• Last 10: 7‑3 (.249 AVG, 2.93 ERA, +9 run diff)
• Home record: 42‑27
• Won 8 of last 11 games; bullpen ERA under 3.00 in span

Series History

• 2025 Season: Red Sox lead 2‑1
• 2024 Season: Split 3‑3
• All‑time: Red Sox lead 1,068–1,016

Betting Trends

Cleveland Guardians

• 44.6% win rate as underdog (33‑41)
• Under has hit in 6 of last 10 games
• 5‑5 ATS last 10

Boston Red Sox

• 59% win rate as favorite (50‑34)
• Over in 3 of last 10 games
• 4‑6 ATS last 10

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Red Sox’s home dominance & recent form vs. Guardians’ offensive slump
• Messick’s small‑sample dominance vs. Boston’s top‑5 offense in MLB runs scored
• Fenway’s hitter‑friendly dimensions, but mild wind in from RF slightly dampening HR carry