MLB Game Preview: Baltimore Orioles (61-75) vs. San Francisco Giants (67-69)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 4:05 PM ET / 1:05 PM PT
• Venue: Oracle Park, 24 Willie Mays Plaza, San Francisco, CA 94107
• Surface: Natural grass
• Broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area (SF), MASN2 (BAL), MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Partly cloudy, high near 68°F (20°C)
• Wind: Light westerly breeze ~8 mph toward right field
• Impact: Minimal weather effect; Oracle Park’s marine air can still suppress deep fly balls, especially to center.

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles:

• Brandon Young (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (hamstring)
• Scott Blewett (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Gary Sánchez (C) – 60‑Day IL (knee)
• Jordan Westburg (INF) – 10‑Day IL (ankle)
• Félix Bautista (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Adley Rutschman (C) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
• Zach Eflin (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (back)
• Tyler O’Neill (OF) – 10‑Day IL (wrist)
• Colin Selby (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (hamstring)
• Jorge Mateo (INF) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Grayson Rodriguez (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Albert Suárez (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Tyler Wells (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

San Francisco Giants:

• Randy Rodriguez (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
• Landen Roupp (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (knee)
• Erik Miller (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Jerar Encarnación (OF) – 10‑Day IL (hamstring)
• Tom Murphy (C) – 60‑Day IL (back)

Probable Pitchers

• BAL: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (10‑6, 4.06 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 91 K)
  • Veteran righty with plus command; limits walks (2.2 BB/9) but allows contact.
  • First career start vs. Giants.
• SF: RHP Justin Verlander (2‑10, 4.47 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 104 K)

• Future Hall‑of‑Famer enduring a tough season; still flashes swing‑and‑miss stuff (9.1 K/9).
• Career vs. BAL: 11‑6, 3.74 ERA in 22 starts.

Recent Form

Baltimore Orioles – Last 10: 2‑8 (.252 AVG, 5.26 ERA, −13 run diff)

• Struggling to score consistently; bullpen taxed due to short starts.
• Key injuries to Rutschman and O’Neill have thinned the lineup.

San Francisco Giants – Last 10: 6‑4 (.254 AVG, 5.16 ERA, +5 run diff)

• Riding strong home play; offense boosted by Willy Adames’ power surge and Luis Matos’ hot bat.
• 39‑12 when scoring 5+ runs this season.

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Tied 1‑1 entering finale.
• First meeting between these clubs since 2022 prior to this series.
• Both games in this set have been decided by 3+ runs.

Key Player Matchups

• Willy Adames (SF) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
  • Adames: 18 2B, 2 3B, 25 HR; 4 multi‑HR games in 2025.
  • Sugano: Opponents hitting .265 off his fastball; must keep ball down vs. Adames.
• Luis Matos (SF) vs. BAL Bullpen
  • Matos: 14‑for‑33 (.424) last 10 games with 3 HR, 7 RBI.
• Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Justin Verlander
  • Mountcastle: 17 2B, 5 HR, 29 RBI; power bat who can punish mistakes up in the zone.
• Colton Cowser (BAL) vs. Giants Middle Relief
• Cowser: 10‑for‑41 (.244) last 10 games with 3 HR; potential late‑inning threat.

Betting Trends

Baltimore Orioles:

• 28‑14 when not allowing a HR.
• 3‑7 in last 10 road games.
• Over is 5‑5 in last 10 overall.

San Francisco Giants:

• 34‑34 at home this season.
• 6‑4 in last 10 overall; 7‑3 ATS in that span.
• Over is 6‑4 in last 10 games.

Head‑to‑Head:

• Series tied 1‑1; both games have gone Over the total.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Giants Moneyline (‑133)

• SF’s recent form, home‑field edge, and Baltimore’s injury‑depleted lineup tilt value toward the home side.

Secondary Lean: Over 8 Runs (‑114)

• Both starters have ERAs north of 4.00; recent series trend toward higher scoring.

Prop Angle: Willy Adames Anytime HR (+400)

• Adames’ power surge + Sugano’s contact‑heavy profile make this a value play.