MLB Game Preview: San Diego Padres (75-60) vs. Minnesota Twins (61-73)

Game & Venue Details

• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 – First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET / 6:10 p.m. CT
• Venue: Target Field, 1 Twins Way, Minneapolis, MN 55403
• Surface: Natural grass
• Weather: Clear skies, ~78°F at first pitch, light NW winds 5–7 mph. Slight breeze toward left field; minimal impact on HR carry.

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

• Out: Xander Bogaerts (foot, 10-day IL), Jackson Merrill (ankle, 10-day IL), Michael King (knee, 15-day IL), Jhony Brito (forearm, 60-day IL), Joe Musgrove (elbow, 60-day IL)
• Impact: Missing key middle infield bat (Bogaerts) and rotation depth; bullpen usage elevated.

Minnesota Twins

• Out: Alan Roden (thumb, 60-day IL), Christian Vázquez (shoulder, 10-day IL), Anthony Misiewicz (shoulder, 15-day IL), David Festa (shoulder, 15-day IL), Pablo López (shoulder, 60-day IL)
• Impact: Rotation thinned; catching depth tested.

Projected Starting Pitchers

Key Player Matchups

• Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) – .264/.370/.434, 18 HR, 27 SB; elite plate discipline vs. Bradley’s fastball-heavy mix.
• Manny Machado (SD) – .288 AVG, 21 HR, 78 RBI; .467 SLG, thrives vs. RHP with mid-tier velocity.
• Luis Arraez (SD) – .283 AVG, 29 doubles; contact machine, potential table-setter.
• Byron Buxton (MIN) – .269 AVG, 27 HR, 21 SB; coming off 20–20 milestone game.
• Trevor Larnach (MIN) – 16 HR, .242 AVG; power threat vs. Pivetta’s occasional elevated fastball.
• Royce Lewis (MIN) – 9 HR; multi-hit upside, especially if Padres’ bullpen is taxed early.

Recent Team Form

Padres (Last 10): 6–4, .259 AVG, 4.14 ERA, +8 run diff

• Lost 4 of last 5 after 5-game win streak; offense averaging 4.9 R/G in span.

Twins (Last 10): 3–7, .245 AVG, 6.72 ERA, –22 run diff

• Snapped 5-series losing streak with last night’s win; bullpen still volatile.

Series History

• All-Time: Twins lead 19–10
• Recent: Twins took 2 of 3 in Aug. 2024; Padres won 2 of 3 in May 2023.
• At Target Field: Twins 9–4 all-time vs. Padres.

Betting Trends

• Padres: 61.8% win rate as favorite; 37–22 when favored at –126 or shorter. Over in 58 of 133 games (43.6%).
• Twins: 38% win rate as underdog; 12–17 when +108 or longer. Over in 59 of 129 games (45.7%).
• Padres 6–4 ATS last 10; Twins 4–6 ATS last 10.
• Over has hit in 80% of Twins’ last 10 games.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Pitcher splits (Pivetta’s 0.94 WHIP vs. Bradley’s 1.31 WHIP)
• Team wRC+ vs. RHP (SD 104, MIN 97)
• Bullpen ERA last 30 days (SD 3.12, MIN 5.84)
• Park factor for RH pull power (Target Field neutral-to-slight boost in warm weather)
• Recent run production trends