MLB Game Preview: Tampa Bay Rays (65-69) at Washington Nationals (53-81)

Venue, Date & Time

• Venue: Nationals Park, 1500 South Capitol Street SE, Washington, D.C.
• Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 — First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Surface: Kentucky bluegrass (outdoor)

Weather Outlook

• Forecast at First Pitch: 77°F (25°C), sunny, humidity ~31%, winds NNW at 5 mph
• Precipitation: 0% — no rain threat
• Impact: Neutral hitting conditions; mild temps and light wind should not significantly affect ball flight

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

• SS Ha-Seong Kim — 10-day IL (back)
• SS Taylor Walls — 10-day IL (groin)
• OF Jonny DeLuca — 10-day IL (hamstring)
• 1B Jonathan Aranda — 10-day IL (wrist)
• OF Stuart Fairchild — 60-day IL (oblique)
• 2B Richie Palacios — 60-day IL (knee)
• RHP Shane McClanahan — 60-day IL (triceps)
• RHP Alex Faedo — 60-day IL (shoulder)
• RHP Manuel Rodríguez — 60-day IL (forearm)
• RHP Hunter Bigge — 60-day IL (lat)
• LHP Nate Lavender — 60-day IL (elbow)

Washington Nationals

• C Keibert Ruiz — 7-day IL (concussion)
• C Drew Millas — day-to-day (finger)
• CF Daylen Lile — day-to-day (illness)
• SP Trevor Williams — 60-day IL (elbow)
• RP Derek Law — 60-day IL (forearm)
• SP DJ Herz — 60-day IL (elbow)
• SP Josiah Gray — 60-day IL (elbow)

Projected Starting Pitchers

Key Player Matchups

Rays Bats vs. Irvin

• Junior Caminero — 39 HR, 94 RBI; elite barrel rate vs. RHP
• Yandy Díaz — .286 AVG, .474 SLG; 3-game hit streak, .474 last 5 games
• Brandon Lowe — 26 HR, .515 SLG; 2-run HR in series opener
• Chandler Simpson — .297 AVG, 38 SB; speed threat at top of order

Nationals Bats vs. Pepiot

• C.J. Abrams — .267 AVG, 3-game hit streak; 1 HR in last 5 games
• James Wood — 26 HR, 83 RBI; team’s top power bat
• Luis García Jr. — .262 AVG, 25 doubles; contact-oriented approach
• Josh Bell — 16 HR, 50 RBI; veteran switch-hitter with pull power

Recent Form

Tampa Bay Rays

• Last 5: W-L-L-W-W
• Won series opener 4-1 (Aug. 29) behind HRs from Lowe & Pereira
• 4-6 in last 10 games; averaging 4.3 runs/game in that span

Washington Nationals

• Last 5: L-L-L-L-L (6-game losing streak)
• 3-7 in last 10 games; team ERA 5.93 in that stretch
• 0-for-12 RISP in series opener

Series History

• All-time: Rays lead 22-21
• Recent: Rays 4-1 in last 5 meetings
• 2024: Rays won season series 2-1
• No postseason meetings

Betting Trends

• Rays: 37-27 as favorite; Over in 6 of last 10 games
• Nationals: 49-67 as underdog; 4-3-3 O/U in last 10 games
• Head-to-Head: Under in 2 of last 3 meetings
• Pitcher Trends: Pepiot — Under in 3 of last 5 starts; Irvin — Over in 4 of last 6

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Rays’ superior starting pitching edge (Pepiot vs. Irvin)
• Nationals’ offensive struggles with RISP
• Rays’ recent power surge (12 HR last 10 games)
• Nationals’ bullpen ERA (5.38) among worst in MLB