Horse Race Preview: Race 9 – Elgin Stakes at Woodbine

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Dive into the $100,000 Elgin Stakes for three- and four-year-old colts and geldings, contested at seven furlongs on Woodbine’s Tapeta dirt track. Nine entrants line up postward at 5:25 PM ET, vying for a $63,000 winner’s share in this Grade 3-caliber sprint.

Pace & Run-Style Breakdown

Front-runners: Kekoa and Summer Commander figure to press the early pace, ensuring honest fractions.

Stalkers: Regal Guest and Shadow Realm will tuck in a notch off the leaders, saving ground into the turn.

Closers: Its Time To Shine and Criminal Intent need a genuine tempo to unleash a late surge.

A swift opening quarter in the low :22s should favor late kickers, whereas moderate fractions will set up pressers for a stretch tilt.

Entrants Overview

PostHorseAgeORTrainerJockeyPedigree
1Kekoa394Catherine D. PhillipsFraser AeblyReload – Henley Hill (GB)
2Summer Commander4101Stuart C. SimonJose CamposSilent Name (JPN) – Dancing Allstar
3Criminal Intent491Steven B. FlintSofia VivesReload – Philzana
4Frost Bitten484Michael P. De PauloLeo SallesFrosted – Spider Dust
5Sunday’s Well390Terry W. BrookerDavid MoranGamble’s Exchange – Mrs. Monty
6Friendly Ghost494Evette Chartrand-HoekSahin CivaciOutwork – Kin’s Ghost
7Shadow Realm399Sid C. AttardPietro MoranSignature Red – Poke the Dragon
8Regal Guest396Mark E. CassePatrick HusbandsOld Forester – Gladiator Queen
9Its Time To Shine495John A. RossRafael HernandezSouper Speedy – Platinum Steel

Leading Contenders

2 – Summer Commander (Jose Campos – Stuart C. Simon)

Off a gutsy victory at Woodbine in July, she edged Shadow Realm by 1½ lengths in a six-furlong stakes (fast) to post her fourth win from seven starts this season. By Silent Name (JPN) out of Dancing Allstar, she blends dirt speed with late kick and carries the high OR of 101 into this field.

7 – Shadow Realm (Pietro Moran – Sid Attard)

Rated near the pace in last month’s six-furlong stakes, he finished a solid third behind Deputy Daddy, proving his ability to handle a contested early tempo. A Signature Red colt out of Poke the Dragon, he boasts a quick early foot and can stalk or press before unleashing his late punch.

8 – Regal Guest (Patrick Husbands – Mark E. Casse)

Two-for-three at Woodbine, she most recently earned a close second by a half-length in a seven-furlong stakes (fast) in June. By Old Forester out of Gladiator Queen, she rates a versatile trip and benefits from the Husbands–Casse stakes acumen on Tapeta dirt.

9 – Its Time To Shine (Rafael Hernandez – John A. Ross)

Last seen rallying to win a six-furlong stakes by a head at Woodbine in July, he’s proven effective on dirt and owns a late-running style that thrives when fractions are hot. A Souper Speedy colt out of Platinum Steel, he offers value beneath the chalk in exacta and trifecta plays.

Dark Horses & Value Plays

1 – Kekoa (Fraser Aebly/Catherine D. Phillips): Rail-hugging threat, runner-up by a half-length in July’s six-furlong stakes; profile suggests a ground-saving trip can pay dividends.

3 – Criminal Intent (Sofia Vives/Steven B. Flint): Won a July 6f stakes by 1¼ lengths at Woodbine; off a strong closing run and sitting on a career-best effort next out.

6 – Friendly Ghost (Sahin Civaci/Evette Chartrand-Hoek): Consistent graded-stakes placer, three-length third over one mile in September; needs pace but has shown dirt-mile versatility.

Trainer & Jockey Highlights

Stuart Simon: Captured last year’s Elgin with a similar sprinting colt and maintains strong form with veteran sprinters this meet.

Mark E. Casse: His dirt-sprinting juveniles and three-year-olds consistently fire, especially when paired with Patrick Husbands.

Patrick Husbands: Leads all Woodbine dirt riders this meet with a 22% win rate, excels on stalking-type sprinters.

Sid C. Attard: Brings a 24% win rate in stakes company at Woodbine this season, particularly with Signature Red progeny.

Betting Strategy

Win Bets: Summer Commander and Shadow Realm as top choices.

Exacta Box: 2–7–8–9 covers both pace pressers and stalkers.

Trifecta Wheel: Key 2 on top, then 7–8–9–1 underneath for broader payoff potential.

Late Pick 3 (Races 7–9): Use 2 and 7 in Race 9, combining with live favorites in the first two legs for value.