MLB Game Preview: Cincinnati Reds (67-62) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (63-66)

Matchup Overview

The Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks clash on Saturday, August 23, 2025, at Chase Field, Phoenix, in a game with meaningful implications for both teams’ postseason hopes. Both teams sit third in their respective National League divisions, with the Reds holding a 67–62 (.519) record, trailing the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers by 14 games, and the Diamondbacks at 63–66 (.488), 10 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. This contest is the second game of a three-game set and the fifth between these teams this season, with Cincinnati owning a 3–1 edge in their 2025 season series. The game is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET and is set against a backdrop of sweltering late-summer desert conditions — ideal for offensive fireworks, but the Chase Field roof and air conditioning will moderate the effect on play.

Both clubs are battling through a challenging middle of the MLB season. The Reds, known for their deep, young roster and aggressive style, are hoping to rebound from recent losses that have slightly dimmed their playoff prospects. Arizona, meanwhile, is trying to extend a three-game home winning streak and build momentum in a division that features two powerhouse teams above them. Notably, both teams possess significant home run power but have divergent strengths: Cincinnati’s on-base skills and emerging rotation contrast with Arizona’s power-laden but inconsistent offense and a bullpen that’s dealt with injuries and underperformance in 2025.

This preview explores team form, key performers, lineups, betting markets, likely pitching approaches, injury updates, and contextual factors, all using the latest and most comprehensive data available.

Team Records and Standings

Cincinnati’s performance continues to outpace preseason expectations. They’re six games above .500, but their recent two-game skid has kept them from gaining significant ground on the Cubs and Brewers. Arizona, meanwhile, is battling to reach .500, buoyed by recent wins but hampered by a season-long struggle with bullpen depth and consistency in key spots.

Additionally, the Reds have performed nearly identically at home and on the road (31–33 away, 36–29 home), showing a degree of resilience in hostile environments. The Diamondbacks, for their part, are 33–31 at home and have lately leveraged their home field to stay in the Wild Card discussion.

Head-to-Head Season Series 2025

Prior to the current series, the Reds had won three of four meetings against Arizona (scores: 4–3, 13–1, and 4–2 back in early June). Arizona picked up a tight 6–5 win in the series opener on August 22, with a walk-off indicating these teams are well-matched and competitive. Pitching matchups, bullpen depth, and home-run prevention have repeatedly swung these outcomes.

Pitching Probables

Probable Starters

Team	Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	IP	SO/9	Notes
Cincinnati Reds	Andrew Abbott	8–3	2.28	1.08	112	35	130.0	7.8	LHP, 22 GS, 7 scoreless in last outing
Arizona D-backs	Nabil Crismatt	0–0	1.80	0.80	5	1	5.0	9.0	RHP, second start of the season

Andrew Abbott has established himself as a legitimate front-line lefty, leading Cincinnati’s rotation with efficiency and poise. In his previous start, Abbott threw seven shutout innings against Milwaukee, scattering four hits, with no walks and seven strikeouts. On the year, opponents are batting just .218 against him, and he’s posted a 2.28 ERA across 22 games, underscoring his reliability and ability to suppress damage even against top-tier lineups.

Abbott by the numbers:

• Quality starts: Last eight starts have each eclipsed five innings pitched
• Scoreless outings: Six starts without an earned run in 2025
• Recent trend: Followed a minor skid with back-to-back quality starts; career-low walk rate and improved chase inducement

On the other side, Nabil Crismatt will make just his second big-league start of 2025. Crismatt posted strong results against the Colorado Rockies in his first outing—five innings of one-run ball, three hits, five strikeouts, and just one walk—but it’s worth noting it came against a weak Rockies lineup. His brief 2025 major-league sample (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) belies longer-term modesty: career MLB ERA above 4.00 entering the year, and previously used almost exclusively in long-relief roles.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Abbott holds a pronounced edge in reliability, strikeout skill, and stamina. Crismatt’s arsenal is predicated on changeup usage and soft contact; while he flashed a decent whiff rate in his first start, his lack of recent MLB starting experience introduces considerable volatility. Arizona will almost certainly need a multi-inning lift from its bullpen, which has struggled in high-leverage moments. Expect Arizona to have a quick hook with Crismatt at the first sign of trouble given their bullpen’s recent usage and ongoing injuries.

Recent Form

Team Performance — Last 10 Games

Team	W-L	Batting Average	Runs/Game	ERA	HR	Run Differential
Cincinnati Reds	5–5	.256	4.7	2.61	7	+11
Arizona Diamondbacks	6–4	.249	4.8	4.20	13	+5

The Reds have combined quality starting pitching with a consistent offense over the past 10 games, though their run-prevention edge is especially notable—they’ve allowed almost two runs fewer per game than Arizona in this span. They’ve also outslugged Arizona in doubles and extra-base hits, though the Diamondbacks have shown more home-run firepower recently.

Arizona, meanwhile, owns the better record across the last 10 thanks to an upsurge in power—13 home runs (compared to 7 for Cincinnati) have buoyed them in tight games. Still, their 4.20 team ERA in this window underscores ongoing pitching instability, especially among relievers. Notably, both clubs have outscored opponents in this stretch, suggesting some underlying positive momentum.

Players to Watch

Key Reds Hitters

Elly De La Cruz (SS)

• Season stats: .274 AVG, .348 OBP, .458 SLG, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 25 2B, 5 3B, 31 SB
• Last 10 games: Continues to be a table-setter and run-producer for Cincinnati. His advanced metrics (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 11% barrel rate, high sprint speed) reflect a rare blend of contact, power, and elite speed.
• Skill set: Switch-hitting, with pronounced value against right-handed pitching (Crismatt is right-handed). De La Cruz’s dynamic athleticism can disrupt games defensively and on the bases, and he routinely turns in highlight-level plays. His Statcast percentile ranks show him above league average in xwOBA, xSLG, and sprint speed.

TJ Friedl (CF)

• Season: .266/.365/.380, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 18 2B, 11 SB
• Recent trend: Entering the game on a four-game hit streak, and leads regulars in OBP. He’s cooled to .190 over the past five games, but his discipline and speed remain weapons at or near the top of the order.

Miguel Andújar (OF/1B)

• Recent 10 games: .417 AVG, 3 HR, 11 RBI, with a slugging percentage over .600 in that stretch—hottest bat in the lineup.
• Season: Fringy role early, but his surge has pushed the Reds to give him more high-leverage at-bats.

Other contributors: Spencer Steer (15 HR, 59 RBI), Matt McLain (11 HR, 40 RBI), Gavin Lux (.278/.355/.383) provide a mix of power and contact, with Steer capable of punishing mistakes but streaky, and Lux bringing stability. Will Benson, Austin Hays, Jose Trevino, and Noelvi Marte round out a deep and versatile lineup.

Key Diamondbacks Hitters

Corbin Carroll (OF)

• Season: .253/.329/.556, 27 HR, 65 RBI, 23 2B, 16 3B, 17 SB
• Power surge: Carroll has entered the upper echelons of National League power hitters—his 27 home runs put him top-15 in MLB, and his .556 slugging is good for a top-five mark among qualifying hitters.
• Recent performance: Several home runs and extra-base hits in last 10 games, with exit velocities frequently over 105 mph and hard-hit rate near 60% on the month.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF)

• Season: .249/.297/.416, 17 HR, 73 RBI
• Last 10 games: Hitting .286 with three homers and 14 RBI. He tends to get hot for stretches and can anchor the middle of the order on days when Carroll is pitched around.

Geraldo Perdomo (SS)

• Season: .288/.392/.440, 13 HR, 81 RBI, leads the club in OBP
• Recent weeks: Drawing significant walks (10 in last 10 games) and posting a .314 average over that span.

Ketel Marte (2B)

• Season: .292/.392/.542, 23 HR, 57 RBI, .590 SLG in last 10 games
• Profile: Switch-hitter, high-contact, extra-base threat with a knack for clutch hits.

Supporting bats: Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Tim Tawa, and Gabriel Moreno contribute variously, but much depends on Carroll and Marte going deep.

Key Pitchers and Bullpen Comparison

Reds Bullpen (2025 to date)

• Team Rank (ERA): 20th in MLB, 4.12 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 20 saves
• High-leverage group: Emilio Pagán (closer, 17 saves, 2.78 ERA), Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft, Scott Barlow, Brent Suter
• Back-end profile: Pagán has solid save conversion; Santillan and Ashcraft morph between multi-inning and setup roles. Ashcraft has thrived in the eighth, while Barlow is the secondary righty. Reds’ relievers are susceptible to home runs on occasion but overall have fared better at suppressing late scoring than Arizona, especially with a healthy lead.

Diamondbacks Bullpen (2025 to date)

• Team Rank (ERA): 27th in MLB, 4.90 ERA, 1.426 WHIP, 33 saves
• Closer(s): Shelby Miller (10 saves, 1.98 ERA), Jalen Beeks, Justin Martinez (injured), and a carousel of arms owing to numerous injuries.
• Issues: High rate of blown saves (24); frequent use of middle-relief arms in late spots.
• Injury depletion: A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel, and Ryan Thompson are unavailable, thinning out the back-end depth severely. As a result, Miller and Beeks often function as both setup and closer, at risk of being overworked.

The bottom line: While neither bullpen is elite, Cincinnati holds a pronounced advantage in experience, recent effectiveness, and available options. Arizona’s relievers have a track record of late-game volatility, and with Crismatt likely on a tight pitch count, they may be called upon early.

Statistical Comparison

Team Batting & Pitching Splits

Stat	Reds (Season)	D-backs (Season)	Reds (Away)	D-backs (Home)
Batting Avg	.247	.251	.240	.263
OBP	.318	.325	.313	.330
SLG	.391	.439	.381	.463
HR/game	0.98	1.39	0.95	1.36
ERA	3.78	4.53	3.93	4.32
Opponent BA	.234	.253	.244	.253
WHIP	1.232	1.326	1.291	1.319

Key Takeaways:
Arizona’s offense is more explosive at home, with notable surges in slugging and batting average at Chase Field. However, their pitching woes are exacerbated at home, where their ERA balloons above 4.30. Cincinnati is a steady, contact-oriented team, slightly less powerful but more balanced with better run prevention. The home-run differential emphasizes Arizona’s risk/reward offensive approach.

Betting Insights

• Slight favorite: The Reds are favored on the moneyline in the -129 range, reflecting their edge in overall record, pitching stability, and recent bullpen performance.
• Implied probability: Cincinnati’s moneyline translates to about a 56% chance of winning, with Arizona’s at 48% per most sportsbooks.
• Totals market: The over/under set at 9 runs reflects both teams’ offensive upside but also a degree of caution given Abbott’s dominance and Crismatt’s potential to limit damage via grounders.
• Recent ATS & O/U: Cincinnati is 7–3 ATS in its last 10; Arizona is 5–5. Both clubs have hit the over in four of their previous 10 games, suggesting neither offense is particularly hot nor cold. Notably, Arizona as a home underdog has won 46% of such games, outperforming expectations in that context.
• Predictive models: System estimates split: Reds’ win probability 51%, Diamondbacks 49% — essentially a toss-up, though most models slightly lean toward a close game in hitter-friendly conditions.

Key Injuries

Cincinnati Reds

Player	Position	Injury (Updated)	Status
Tyler Stephenson	C	Thumb (Aug 20)	10-day IL, out until at least Aug 27
Ian Gibaut	RP	Shoulder (Aug 20)	60-day IL, out until Sept 18
Nick Lodolo	SP	Finger (Aug 19)	15-day IL, out until Aug 26
Chase Burns	SP	Elbow (Aug 15)	15-day IL, out until Aug 27
Wade Miley	SP	Flexor/Forearm (Aug 18)	60-day IL, out until Sept 12
Carson Spiers	SP	Shoulder (Jul 28)	Out for season
Tyler Callihan	LF/UT	Wrist/Forearm (Jul 28)	Out for season
Brandon Williamson	SP	Elbow (Aug 10)	Out for season
Rhett Lowder	SP	Oblique (Jul 31)	Out for season
Julian Aguiar	SP	Elbow (Jul 23)	Out for season
Alex Young	RP	Elbow (Jul 25)	Out for season
Tejay Antone	RP	Elbow (Aug 18)	Out until at least Sept 1
Josh Staumont	RP	Undisclosed (Apr 23)	Out for season

Impact: The Reds are missing several arms, especially among the rotation (Lodolo, Miley, Williamson, Burns, Spiers) — testing their rotation depth. Catcher Tyler Stephenson’s absence impacts both defense and power, though Jose Trevino and Austin Wynns have performed capably in sharing duties.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Player	Position	Injury (Updated)	Status
Gabriel Moreno	C	Finger (Aug 18)	Out until at least Aug 19
Ryan Thompson	RP	Shoulder (Aug 17)	Out until at least Aug 22
Kristian Mena	RP	Shoulder (Aug 17)	Out until at least Aug 29
Kyle Amendt	RP	Undisclosed (Aug 17)	Out until at least Aug 27
Anthony DeSclafani	RP	Thumb (Aug 13)	Out until at least Aug 28
Justin Martinez	RP	Elbow (Aug 9)	Out for season
Kevin Ginkel	RP	Shoulder (Aug 7)	Out for season
Christian Montes De Oca	RP	Back (Jul 22)	Out until at least Sept 15
A.J. Puk	RP	Elbow (Jul 6)	Out for season
Corbin Burnes	SP	Elbow (Jun 7)	Out for season
Blake Walston	SP	Elbow (Apr 28)	Out for season

Impact: Arizona’s bullpen is decimated, missing both setup men and closers (Puk, Martinez, Ginkel, Ryan Thompson) and down a top starter (Burnes). The domino effect means more innings for unproven arms, particularly if Crismatt exits early. The absence of Moreno could affect game-calling, although James McCann and Adrian Del Castillo are serviceable offensively. The frequency and severity of the D-backs’ injuries have led them to shuttle prospects and secondary options into leverage spots, often with mixed results.

Weather and Venue Conditions — Chase Field

The forecast for Phoenix on August 23 predicts a daytime high around 107°F, tapering to mid-80s by first pitch. However, Chase Field’s retractable roof and full climate control mean playing conditions should be comfortable and uniform for players and fans.

• Wind: Light, variable (minimal impact given roof closure)
• Humidity: Moderate, 37–52% during game time
• Precipitation: None expected
• Ballpark Factor: Chase Field, when closed, is roughly neutral (100–102 park factor range). On open days, the venue slightly boosts home runs thanks to thin air, but the closed setting likely moderates that effect.

Tactical and Analytical Preview

Cincinnati Reds – Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Elite starting pitching led by Abbott: With Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo injured, Abbott’s production is even more significant.
• Good OBP and speed: On-base percentage ranks in the NL’s top third; De La Cruz, Friedl, and Benson provide running game pressure.
• Bullpen stability: While lacking a dominant closer, Pagán and Santillan are reliable, ground-ball-oriented arms.

Weaknesses:

• Injury attrition: Rotation is stretched thin, and the offense is vulnerable to power pitching with Stephenson sidelined.
• Inconsistent power: Beyond De La Cruz and Andújar’s recent hot stretch, the team’s overall slugging numbers are ordinary.

Key to victory: A deep start from Abbott, coupled with run manufacturing rather than all-or-nothing approach. Limiting Arizona’s power, particularly from Carroll and Marte.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

• Home run power: Carroll, Marte, and Gurriel Jr. power a lineup that’s fourth in the NL in slugging at home.
• Offensive surges: When hot, the offense is capable of big innings; high walk rate from Perdomo and Marte builds potential for crooked numbers.

Weaknesses:

• Bullpen risk: Injury-thinned and heavily worked; Miller’s reliability may be taxed if Crismatt exits before the 6th.
• Starting pitching depth: With Burnes and DeSclafani out, they’re forced to rely on Crismatt and a patchwork rotation.

Key to victory: Arizona must get early runs and hope Crismatt can go at least five innings. Deploying Beeks and Miller strategically in late innings is essential. Home run mitigation against Cincinnati’s lefty bats, and maintaining defensive discipline with an athletic Reds basepath presence, will be critical.

Season and Player Metrics Table

	Team	Key Hitter	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	OPS	Key Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	IP
Reds	CIN	E. De La Cruz	.274	.348	.458	19	77	31	.806	A. Abbott	8–3	2.28	1.08	112	35	130.0
D-backs	ARI	C. Carroll	.253	.329	.556	27	65	17	.885	N. Crismatt	0–0	1.80	0.80	5	1	5.0

Prediction and Closing Thoughts

While this game features teams with distinct identities and urgent playoff hopes, the clearest advantage lies with the Cincinnati Reds due to Andrew Abbott’s stellar form and the relative stability of their bullpen compared to Arizona’s battered corps. The surges from Andújar and De La Cruz complement the contact and plate discipline of the Reds lineup. Meanwhile, Arizona’s hopes rest heavily on early home runs and an unlikely extended outing from Crismatt.

Projected outcome: Most models and betting lines view the game as essentially even, with a slight tilt to Cincinnati. Projected scorelines hover around 6–5, with the over/under set at 9 runs — reflecting both teams’ propensity to score but also Abbott’s ability to limit damage. The bullpen differential is crucial: if Arizona cannot hold a slim lead late, Cincinnati is well-placed to pounce on fill-in relievers.

Star matchup: All eyes will be on Elly De La Cruz and Corbin Carroll, the two budding superstars each capable of altering the course of a game in a single at-bat or on the basepaths.

X-factors:

• Will Crismatt survive past the fifth inning, or will Arizona’s bullpen be exposed?
• Can Cincinnati leverage De La Cruz’s baserunning and extra-base power to pressure a sometimes-shaky Arizona defense?
• Will Carroll or Marte deliver the game-changing home run?

Final note: Expect a tightly contested, high-leverage affair, with the tiniest edges in pitching and depth likely making the difference. Given Arizona’s home form and offensive upside, an upset is possible, especially if Carroll and Marte get going, but the “chalk” pick on the road is Andrew Abbott and the battle-tested Reds bullpen holding on late.