Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (37–49) vs. Atlanta Braves (39–47)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 7:15 PM ET
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Watch: MLB Network, MASN, Bally Sports South
Odds: Braves -168 | Orioles +142 | Over/Under: 9 runs
Game Overview
The Atlanta Braves host the Baltimore Orioles in a Fourth of July showdown at Truist Park. Both teams are underperforming relative to preseason expectations, but this interleague matchup offers a chance for momentum heading into the second half of the season.
The Orioles have dropped 7 of their last 11 and are struggling to find consistency at the plate. The Braves, meanwhile, have lost 6 of their last 8 but remain dangerous at home, where they’re 24–18.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Charlie Morton (Orioles)
- Record: 4–7
- ERA: 5.63
- WHIP: 1.57
- Last Start: 5 IP, 3 ER vs. Rangers
- Career vs. Braves: 3–2, 3.53 ERA in 7 starts
Morton returns to Atlanta, where he spent four seasons and won 45 games. While his overall numbers are rough, he’s posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 9 outings and brings veteran savvy to a young Orioles rotation.
Spencer Strider (Braves)
- Record: 3–6
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.14
- Last Start: 7 IP, 2 ER vs. Phillies
- June Stats: 3.60 ERA, 42 K in 35 IP
Strider is rounding into form after a shaky start to the season. He’s struck out 10+ batters in 3 of his last 5 starts and owns a 2.25 ERA over his last 4 outings.
Key Hitters to Watch
Orioles
- Ryan O’Hearn: .294 AVG, 11 HR, .853 OPS
- 4-game hitting streak; 2 doubles in last 5 games
- Gunnar Henderson: .276 AVG, 10 HR, 16 2B
- Cedric Mullins: 12 HR, 39 RBI, .213 AVG
- Jackson Holliday: .255 AVG, 10 HR, 12 2B
Braves
- Matt Olson: .267 AVG, 16 HR, 56 RBI
- 9-game hitting streak; .375 AVG over last 10 games
- Austin Riley: .274 AVG, .427 SLG
- Ozzie Albies: .227 AVG, 6 HR, 11 2B
- Jurickson Profar: 2 HR in 2 games since return from suspension
Team Stats & Trends
| Category | Orioles | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Batting Avg | .240 (20th in MLB) | .244 (17th in MLB) |
| OPS | .705 | .698 |
| Runs Per Game (L10) | 5.5 | 3.1 |
| Team ERA | 4.50 | 4.45 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.12 | 3.89 |
| Last 10 Games | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Strider’s recent dominance and Atlanta’s home-field advantage give them the edge. Morton’s experience could keep it close early, but the Braves’ bullpen and timely hitting should carry them late.
Betting Trends
- Orioles are 1–4 in their last 5 games as underdogs
- Braves are 17–12 when favored by -168 or more
- Under is 7–2–1 in the last 10 Orioles vs. Braves matchups
- Braves are 3–7 ATS in their last 10 games
Game Odds
Baltimore Orioles 8.5
Atlanta Braves – 180
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 3, 2025
