Matchup: New York Yankees (48–38) vs. New York Mets (49–38)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 3:10 PM ET
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Watch: MLB Network, YES, SNY
Game Overview
The Subway Series returns to Queens as the New York Mets host the New York Yankees in a July 4th showdown. Both teams are reeling from rough June stretches—New York’s AL squad has dropped four straight, while the Mets are just 3–13 since mid-June.
This is the first of a three-game set at Citi Field, with the Yankees having taken two of three in the first leg of the series back in May. With both teams clinging to playoff hopes and the All-Star break looming, this game carries serious momentum implications.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Marcus Stroman (Yankees)
- Record: 1–1
- ERA: 5.65
- WHIP: 1.48
- Starts: 4 (limited due to injury)
- Last Start: 5 IP, 3 ER vs. Blue Jays
Stroman returns to Citi Field for the first time since leaving the Mets in 2022. He’s struggled with command and long balls in limited action this season, allowing 3 HR in just 14.1 innings.
Justin Hagenman (Mets)
- MLB Debut Start
- ERA: N/A
- Scouting Report: Mid-90s fastball, plus changeup, command-first profile
Hagenman makes his first career MLB start after a strong showing in Triple-A. He’ll face a Yankees lineup that’s cooled off but still features elite power.
Key Hitters to Watch
Yankees
- Aaron Judge: .363 AVG, 31 HR, 70 RBI
- 2nd in MLB in HR, 3rd in RBI
- Cody Bellinger: .267 AVG, 12 HR, 15 2B
- Paul Goldschmidt: .286 AVG, 8 HR, 18 2B
Mets
- Juan Soto: 20 HR, .287 AVG, .950 OPS
- Homered in his last game vs. Yankees
- Pete Alonso: .287 AVG, 66 RBI, 22 HR
- 2-for-5 career vs. Stroman
- Francisco Lindor: .261 AVG, 17 HR, 16 2B
Team Stats & Trends
| Category | Yankees | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Batting Avg | .251 | .248 |
| Runs Per Game (L10) | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Team ERA (L10) | 4.97 | 6.28 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.12 (14th in MLB) | 4.45 (22nd in MLB) |
| Last 10 Games | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Despite their recent slump, the Yankees have the edge with a more experienced starter and a deeper lineup. Stroman’s familiarity with Citi Field and the Mets’ lineup could work in his favor, while Hagenman faces a brutal debut assignment.
Betting Trends
- Yankees are 6–2 in their last 8 games vs. the Mets
- Mets are 2–8 in their last 10 games as favorites
- Under is 6–4 in the last 10 Subway Series games
- Yankees are 4–1 in Stroman’s last 5 interleague starts
Game Odds
New York Yankees 9.5
New York Mets – 133
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 3, 2025
