Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
The best-of-seven American League Championship Series is tied 1-1 after the Guardians took Game 1 7-3 in St. Petersburg and the Rays responded with a 3-1 win in Game 2 (all three Rays runs unearned after a José Ramírez error). The series shifts to Progressive Field for the next three games. First pitch has been moved up to 1:00 p.m. ET (originally 6:00 p.m.) due to a forecast of inclement weather later in the day; it airs on TBS, truTV, and HBO Max.
Probable Starting Pitchers
Rays: RHP Griffin Jax (regular season 8-10, 3.53 ERA in 112.1 IP; postseason 0-0, 4.50 ERA in 2 IP relief vs. Yankees). Jax has not covered 5 innings in a start in over three weeks; the bullpen is expected to be heavily involved. Career vs. Guardians: limited sample, batters hitting around .230 with no home runs allowed in available data.
Guardians: RHP Gavin Williams (regular season 14-8, 3.76 ERA, 248 K in 184.1 IP; postseason 1-0, 1.54 ERA, 24 K in 11.2 IP across ALDS starts/relief). Dominant vs. Rays historically (career ~1.80 ERA in 5 starts, including a strong 2026 outing). He has struck out 24 in the postseason so far.
Current Rosters (ALCS 26-man)
Tampa Bay Rays (12 pitchers / 14 position players): Pitchers — Bryan Baker, Cam Booser (L), Brody Hopkins, Griffin Jax, Kevin Kelly, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz (L), Freddy Peralta, Drew Rasmussen, Ian Seymour (L), Cole Sulser, Tyler Wells. Catchers — Nick Fortes, Liam Hicks. Infielders — Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Jorge Mateo, Richie Palacios, Taylor Walls, Ben Williamson. Outfielders — Jonny DeLuca, Víctor Mesa Jr., Cedric Mullins, Chandler Simpson, Ryan Vilade. (Yandy Díaz often DH.)
Cleveland Guardians (13 pitchers / 13 position players): Pitchers — Shawn Armstrong, Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi, Daniel Espino, Matt Festa, Hunter Gaddis, Foster Griffin, Tim Herrin, Parker Messick, Erik Sabrowski, Cade Smith, Gavin Williams. Catchers — Patrick Bailey, Austin Hedges. Infielders — Travis Bazzana, David Fry, Ángel Genao, Nathaniel Lowe, José Ramírez, Brayan Rocchio. Outfielders — Jo Adell, Chase DeLauter, Petey Halpin, Steven Kwan, Angel Martínez.
Injury Reports
Rays: Notable absences include SP Shane McClanahan (forearm, out for postseason), OF Jacob Melton (hamstring, 60-day IL), RP Jon Heasley (elbow), RP Edwin Uceta (shoulder), INF Gavin Lux (shoulder, day-to-day/expected out at least through Oct. 15), and RP Ryan Pepiot (hip). Core ALCS roster is largely healthy; Caminero and DeLuca avoided serious injury after a Game 1 collision.
Guardians: RP Colin Holderman (wrist surgery, out for postseason) and 1B Rhys Hoskins (back, 10-day IL, limited role). Chase DeLauter and Angel Martínez have dealt with wrist/flank issues earlier but have been active in the series. No major new absences reported for the active roster.
Weather Forecast (Progressive Field)
Thursday: Partly sunny with a high near 66–70°F. Chance of showers mainly after 5 p.m. (around 20–30% during the afternoon game window). East winds ~5–7 mph. Evening/night sees higher rain chances (up to 90%) with possible thunderstorms, which prompted the earlier start. Conditions should be favorable for a daytime game.
Key Player Matchups
Williams vs. Rays hitters: Strong track record. Yandy Díaz has had success (.467 in limited PAs), but Williams has dominated overall (career low ERA vs. the club). Junior Caminero, Cedric Mullins, and contact threats like Chandler Simpson/Taylor Walls face a high-K arm (Williams posts elite strikeout rates).
Jax vs. Guardians hitters: Steven Kwan has struggled vs. Jax historically (near-.000 in small sample). José Ramírez (~.294), Chase DeLauter, and Jo Adell represent power/contact threats. Jax’s sweeper/sinker mix has limited HRs vs. this group.
Broader series notes: Ramírez’s Game 2 error was costly; DeLauter has been a postseason standout (near cycle in Game 1). Rays’ speed (Simpson, etc.) and bullpen depth (Baker as closer) contrast with Guardians’ contact-oriented approach and Williams’ swing-and-miss stuff.
Recent Team Forms
Rays: 98-64 regular season (AL East winners). Swept Yankees in ALDS. Split first two ALCS games at home (lost 7-3, won 3-1). Strong home record but now on the road; pitching has been excellent overall in the postseason.
Guardians: 85-77 regular season (AL Central winners by a narrow margin). Came back from 0-2 deficit to eliminate White Sox in ALDS (won three straight). Took Game 1 of ALCS on the road before dropping Game 2. Recent form includes strong pitching and opportunistic offense (Ramírez, DeLauter key).
Series History
Rays dominated the 2026 regular-season series (won 5 of 6). In the ALCS: Guardians 1, Rays 1. Overall recent H2H favors Tampa Bay, with low-scoring affairs common (many decided by 3 or fewer runs outside one blowout). Guardians’ home advantage at Progressive Field is a new factor.
Betting Trends
H2H unders have been common; public has leaned Rays in earlier games; Guardians perform well as home favorites in October. Series odds have Rays as slight overall favorites.
This is a classic pitchers’ duel with bullpen implications in a tied series. Williams gives Cleveland the edge to take a 2-1 lead, but the Rays’ overall talent and adaptability make it competitive.
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Rays 6.5
Cleveland Guardians – 125
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, October 14, 2026
