The Rays lead the best-of-five series 1-0 after a 1-0 victory in Game 1 on October 3, powered by Drew Rasmussen’s near no-hitter (one hit allowed over eight innings) and a Jonathan Aranda home run off Gerrit Cole. The Yankees managed just one hit and were shut out for the first time in the postseason.
Venue and First Pitch
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida (indoor/domed stadium).
First pitch: 8:00 PM ET.
Broadcast: TBS, truTV, HBO Max (Spanish options on UniMas/TUDN Radio; national radio on ESPN Radio).
Weather Forecast
Tropicana Field is a fixed-roof domed stadium, so outdoor weather does not affect play. Outside conditions in St. Petersburg on October 5 are expected to be warm and humid: partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs near 86–88°F, lows in the mid-to-upper 70s°F, a 40–50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms (mainly afternoon/evening), and light winds (southeast/southwest around 5 mph). Humidity will be high.
Starting Pitchers
Yankees: RHP Cam Schlittler (#31). 2026 regular season: 14-6, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 239 strikeouts in 193.2 IP (elite road numbers: ~1.16 ERA in 17 road starts). He threw 6.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in the Wild Card Series vs. Boston. Cy Young favorite with dominant stuff and recent form.
Rays: RHP Freddy Peralta (#51). 2026 overall: 10-11, 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156 strikeouts in 169.0 IP (stronger late with the Rays after a midseason acquisition from the Mets; recent stretch includes a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts in some reports, and solid home numbers at the Trop). He has been effective in shorter outings recently.
Current Rosters and Key Players
Yankees (manager Aaron Boone): Without three-time MVP Aaron Judge (right calf strain; left off the ALDS roster). Key active contributors include DH Ben Rice (strong power numbers in Judge’s absence), Cody Bellinger, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Anthony Volpe/Gleyber-type infield options, and Giancarlo Stanton (available as a pinch-hitter after a long calf recovery; saw limited action in Game 1). Pitching depth includes Ryan Weathers (activated for the roster after forearm issues). Regular-season leaders featured Rice in HRs/RBIs among active players.
Rays (manager Kevin Cash): Strong balanced roster with Yandy Díaz (DH), Junior Caminero (3B, high RBI totals), Jonathan Aranda (1B, Game 1 hero), Chandler Simpson (speed/outfield), Cedric Mullins, Taylor Walls, and others. Bullpen anchors include Bryan Baker (closer). Full ALDS roster emphasizes depth with recent activations from minor forearm issues (e.g., Cleavinger, Wells).
Injury Reports
Yankees: Aaron Judge (10-day IL, right calf strain—out for the series start; limited running/rehab progress). Clarke Schmidt (15-day IL, biceps—out for postseason). Fernando Cruz and Kervin Castro (60-day IL, elbows). Ryan Weathers is available with restrictions after a flexor strain.
Rays: Shane McClanahan (15-day IL, forearm—unavailable this series). Other longer-term absences include players on 60-day IL (e.g., related to elbow/shoulder/hip/hamstring). Recent forearm recoveries (Cleavinger, Tyler Wells) are active. Chandler Simpson was day-to-day earlier with a foot issue but available. No major new absences reported for Game 2.
Key Player Matchups
Schlittler vs. Rays hitters (Díaz, Caminero, Aranda, Simpson): Schlittler’s elite strikeout rate, low WHIP, and road dominance make him a tough matchup. Expect him to challenge Tampa Bay’s contact-oriented and power threats with velocity and command. Caminero’s production and Aranda’s recent power are key tests.
Peralta vs. Yankees lineup (Rice, Bellinger, Wells, Chisholm): Without Judge, New York relies on Rice’s power and Bellinger’s all-around game. Peralta’s improved recent form and home comfort at the Trop favor him limiting damage, though the Yankees’ ability to work counts could force early exits.
Bullpen and secondary: Yankees’ depth (Weathers, Bednar-type arms) vs. Rays’ rested pen after Rasmussen’s long outing. Speed (Simpson, Chisholm) and defensive plays at the Trop could factor.
Overall: Pitching duel lean with Schlittler’s superior season metrics against a Rays offense that scored just one run in Game 1.
Recent Team Forms
Yankees: Swept Boston in the Wild Card (high-scoring wins), then scored 0 runs on 1 hit in ALDS Game 1. Regular season: 93-68 (2nd in AL East). Strong late push but vulnerable without Judge.
Rays: 98-64 regular season (AL East winners, top seed). Dominant Game 1 shutout. Strong home record (55-26). Consistent pitching and timely hitting define their form.
Series History
Frequent AL East rivals with many tight contests. In 2026 regular season and recent meetings, results were mixed (Yankees took some late-season games; Rays competitive overall). Historical postseason edge limited; this is a high-stakes intra-division clash. Rays hold the early 2026 ALDS lead.
Game Odds
New York Yankees – 125
Tampa Bay Rays 6.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, October 4, 2026
