Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET (1:20 p.m. CT)
TV: Marquee Sports Network / SportsNet Pittsburgh
Venue & Weather
Wrigley Field (capacity ~41,649, grass surface). Forecast for game time is favorable for baseball: partly cloudy to mostly sunny, temperature around 81–86°F (high near 86°F), winds ~8 mph from the SW/WSW (light, with gusts possible up to 15–20 mph), humidity moderate, and precipitation chance near 0–25% (very low during the afternoon window). No significant rain expected; conditions should be warm and playable with a slight wind that could modestly favor fly balls.
Probable Starting Pitchers
Pirates: RHP Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 181 K in 155.0 IP)
Recent form has been mixed but showed bounce-back potential. In his last start (Sept. 6 vs. Angels), he threw 5.1 scoreless innings (4 H, 1 BB, 2 K) for the win, ending a long winless stretch. Career vs. Cubs: 2-4, 3.45 ERA in 9 starts (44.1 IP); this season specifically 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts against them. High-strikeout profile (10.5 K/9 overall) but recent outings have seen lower K rates and occasional elevated walk rates. He remains a high-upside arm capable of dominating.
Cubs: RHP Clay Holmes (6-7, 2.83 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 65 K in 86.0 IP)
Strong overall season after joining the Cubs (lower ERA in limited sample with the team). Last outing (Sept. 6 at Marlins) was rough: 4.1 IP, 8 ER. Prior to that he had a stretch of excellent starts (including scoreless outings). Ground-ball oriented with solid command; lower strikeout rate than Skenes but effective at limiting damage and home runs (only 5 HR allowed). Home ERA has been notably strong.
This is a classic power vs. contact/ground-ball matchup. Skenes’ elite stuff vs. a high-powered Cubs lineup that ranks near the top of the NL in runs and slugging; Holmes’ efficiency vs. a Pirates offense that has shown recent life.
Current Rosters & Key Players
Pirates key contributors Nick Gonzales (.305 AVG leader), Brandon Lowe (power/RBI production, ~29 HR), Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds (recently hot), Konnor Griffin (rookie impact, including Friday’s leadoff triple), Ryan O’Hearn (recently activated from IL), Rafael Flores Jr., Jake Mangum, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis (catcher). Pitching depth impacted by injuries.
Cubs key contributors:
Pete Crow-Armstrong (standout season: ~.281 AVG, 41 HR, 98 RBI, elite speed/defense in CF), Alex Bregman (hot of late: multi-hit games, 25th HR on Friday), Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner (versatile infield, currently filling SS with Swanson out), Carson Kelly (C), Michael Conforto, Pedro Ramírez, Tyrone Taylor. Offense leads NL in several categories (runs, HR, SLG). Lineups were listed as TBD closer to first pitch in available sources; expect standard configurations with possible adjustments for lefty/righty matchups and the Valdez situation.
Injury Reports
Pirates:
Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) – Day-to-day (left hamstring discomfort; left Friday’s game).
Kirby Yates (RP) – 15-day IL (shoulder).
Braxton Ashcraft (SP) – 15-day IL (arm).
Isaac Mattson (RP) – 15-day IL (hip).
Mitch Keller (SP) – 60-day IL (arm).
Endy Rodríguez (C) – 60-day IL (hip).
Ryan O’Hearn recently activated.
Cubs:
Dansby Swanson (SS) – 10-day IL (oblique/side; expected return ~Sept. 18).
Multiple pitchers on IL: Edward Cabrera (15-day, blister/finger), Gavin Hollowell (15-day, shoulder), Hunter Harvey (60-day, triceps), Shelby Miller (60-day, elbow), Justin Steele (60-day, elbow), Porter Hodge, Cade Horton, Phil Maton, Ben Brown, Riley Martin, Tyler Austin (knee), and others. Bullpen and rotation depth affected, but active rotation (including Holmes, Imanaga, Boyd, Gausman, Peterson) remains competitive.
Recent Team Forms & Series Context
Pirates: 74-74 overall (36-40 away). Strong recent stretch before Friday (won 4 straight, including series vs. White Sox; 7-3 or better in last 10 in some reports). Dropped to .500 after Friday’s 12-2 loss. Offense capable of scoring runs; pitching has been inconsistent.
Cubs: 82-66 overall (42-31 home), 2nd in NL Central (10 GB of Brewers, in wild-card mix). Snapped a 4-game skid with Friday’s 12-2 rout (16 hits, Bregman 3 hits + HR, multiple multi-hit games). Last 10: ~4-6. High-powered offense (NL-leading or near-leading in runs/HR/SLG) but pitching ERA around 4.20.
Series: Cubs lead the current 3-game set 1-0 after Friday’s blowout. Season series: Cubs lead ~6-5 heading into this game (12th meeting of the year). Historical edge at Wrigley and vs. Skenes noted in previews.
Key Player vs. Player / Matchup Notes
Skenes vs. Cubs hitters: Cubs have handled him reasonably well in prior meetings this year and career (higher ERA against them). Crow-Armstrong, Bregman (hot), Suzuki, and Busch present tough matchups for a right-hander. Skenes’ velocity and secondary pitches can miss bats, but Wrigley + Cubs’ power creates risk.
Holmes vs. Pirates: Ground-ball tendency could neutralize some of Pittsburgh’s power (Lowe, Reynolds, Cruz). Pirates’ recent contact/OBP success and speed elements (Griffin, etc.) could test him if he leaves pitches up.
Bullpen/late-inning factors: Both sides dealing with IL absences; Cubs’ home advantage and offensive depth give them more margin. Friday’s blowout showed Cubs’ ability to pile on against non-ace pitching.
Betting Trends
Cubs strong at home; high-scoring potential given offenses and Wrigley. Skenes can suppress runs but has been hittable vs. this lineup. Holmes’ overall ERA is excellent but last start was poor. Recent series and season meetings lean Cubs. Overs have hit in several prior meetings. Pirates have shown resilience on the road in streaks but struggled in the opener.
GAME ODDS
Pittsburgh Pirates 9
Chicago Cubs – 120
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, September 11, 2026
