Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV/Stream: Marlins.TV / Reds.TV (MLB.TV available in most markets)
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: RHP Sandy Alcantara (13-6, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 163.2 IP, 128 K, 42 BB, 17 HR)
Reds: RHP Chase Burns (13-2, 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 124.0 IP, 143 K, 46 BB, 13 HR)
This is a high-quality matchup of two strong right-handers. Burns has been one of the more dominant starters in baseball with elite strikeout numbers (high K/9) and a strong win-loss record. Alcantara, the workhorse, has been excellent recently (including consecutive shutout-type outings) and remains a durable innings-eater with solid command. Both project to work deep into the game.
Venue and Weather Forecast
Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly venue (elevated park factor, especially for home runs). Forecast for Cincinnati: Hot and humid with highs around the mid-to-upper 80s°F (heat index possibly near or above 100 earlier in the day). Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms (precipitation probability roughly 25-40% around game time, higher earlier). Winds light (around 3-5 mph, variable or light out to right field at times). Possible brief delay risk from storms, but full postponement not expected. Conditions favor offense slightly if the ball carries, though the pitching matchup may counteract the park.
Injury Reports
Marlins:
Kyle Stowers (1B/OF, 10-day IL, hamstring) – expected return around Aug. 21
Max Meyer (SP, 15-day IL, neck)
Anthony Bender (RP, 15-day IL)
Andrew Nardi (RP, 60-day IL, ribs)
Additional longer-term absences (Robby Snelling, Ronny Henriquez, Adam Mazur, others on elbow-related IL)
Reds:
Spencer Steer (1B, 10-day IL, wrist) – longer return window (~Sept. 1)
Tony Santillan (RP, 15-day IL, oblique)
Graham Ashcraft (RP, 60-day IL, forearm/elbow)
Brandon Williamson (SP, 60-day IL, shoulder)
Hunter Greene (SP, 60-day IL, elbow – season-ending implications noted in some reports)
Blake Dunn (OF, 60-day IL, elbow)
Both bullpens are dealing with absences; starting pitching depth is more impacted for Cincinnati.
Current active rosters feature key contributors such as Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernández, and Jakob Marsee for Miami; Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart (team HR leader), Tyler Stephenson, and other regulars for Cincinnati.
Key Player vs. Player Matchups and Notes
Burns’ high-velocity fastball and wipeout slider (elite whiff rates) present a tough challenge for the Marlins’ contact-oriented and opportunistic lineup. Alcantara’s mix (strong fastball, sinker/change elements, and ability to induce weak contact) will test a Reds offense that ranks near the bottom in batting average but has power (higher HR totals).
Notable Reds threats include Elly De La Cruz (speed + power) and Sal Stewart (26 HR range, strong RBI production). For Miami, Otto Lopez (high AVG) and power threats like Hernández or Conine (recent multi-hit/power production) stand out. Platoon and recent form advantages lean toward the better-pitched side of the matchup. Great American Ball Park’s dimensions can amplify any mistakes by either starter.
Recent Team Forms
Marlins: 5-5 in last 10. Competitive overall (third in NL East, in the wild-card mix). Strong when scoring 5+ runs. Road record is weaker (24-35). Coming off a mixed series vs. Pittsburgh and looking to snap a road skid. Pitching has been solid (recent team ERA in good form).
Reds: 6-4 in last 10. Fourth in NL Central with a poorer run differential. Home record 29-31. Offense has been inconsistent (.200-ish AVG in recent stretch in some reports) but capable of power outbursts. Entering after a series vs. the White Sox.
Series History
Season series tied 2-2 (four prior meetings earlier in the year, mostly in Miami). Prior results included low- and mid-scoring games with both teams taking wins. Historical matchups have been competitive; no heavy dominance either way in 2026.
Betting Trends
Strong pitching matchups often suppress totals even in hitter parks. Reds have success in low-HR allowed games. Marlins perform well when scoring early/mid-range runs. Models give a slight edge to the home team/Burns side (win probabilities around 55% for Reds in some projections). Recent forms and the park factor keep the total in play, but elite starters favor the Under.
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 8
Cincinnati Reds – 112
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, August 13, 2026
