Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
TV: Twins.TV / MASN (streaming options include Fubo/MLB.TV where available)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Twins took the opener 9-5 on Monday (Dean Kremer, acquired from Baltimore at the trade deadline, beat his former team). The Orioles responded with a 5-2 win on Tuesday, powered by home runs from Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both clubs are on the fringes of the AL wild-card race.
Probable Starting Pitchers
- Orioles: RHP Shane Baz (#34) — 4-11, 3.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 120 K in 136.1 IP (23 starts). Recent form has been strong (low-2.00s ERA over his last several outings, including an 8-IP complete-game effort). He limits hard contact and home runs effectively (only 10 HR allowed).
- Twins: RHP Zebby Matthews (#52) — 5-8, 5.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 73 K in 86.0 IP. More home-run prone (17 HR). He was available after a recent foot blister and is starting as planned after a recall to replace the injured Joe Ryan.
Baz holds a clear edge on paper with better command, strikeout ability relative to workload, and recent results.
Venue & Weather Forecast
Target Field (outdoor, capacity ~38,500; slightly hitter-friendly in recent seasons).
Forecast for first pitch/afternoon: Partly sunny to hazy sunshine, high around 85–90°F (upper 80s common in forecasts), light northeast winds (~5 mph or less), low precipitation chance during game hours (isolated evening storms possible later). Comfortable playing conditions with limited wind influence.
Injury Reports
Orioles:
- Yohel Pozo (C): Day-to-day (left index finger; left Tuesday’s game after being hit by a bat).
- Blaze Alexander (INF): 10-day IL (hand).
- Samuel Basallo (C): 10-day IL (shoulder).
- Longer-term: Ryan Mountcastle (foot), Jordan Westburg (UCL), Chris Bassitt (back), Zach Eflin/Felix Bautista/Keegan Akin/Ryan Helsley (elbow/shoulder issues) on 60-day IL. Catching depth is thinned.
Twins:
- Byron Buxton (CF): 10-day IL (hip).
- Joe Ryan (SP): 15-day IL (glute).
- Longer-term: Pablo López (elbow surgery), David Festa (shoulder), Mick Abel/Cole Sands/Mike Paredes/Anthony Banda (various) on 60-day IL. Center field and rotation depth impacted.
Current Rosters / Key Players
Orioles key contributors: Pete Alonso (1B, ~.25x AVG, team-leading ~26 HR / 75+ RBI), Gunnar Henderson (SS), Jackson Holliday (2B), Coby Mayo, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Leody Taveras, Dylan Beavers; bullpen includes Yennier Cano, Andrew Kittredge, Brandon Young (recent strong start), Josh Walker. Catching options limited (Carlos Narváez / Pozo status).
Twins key contributors: Josh Bell (DH), Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, Austin Martin, Alan Roden, Kaelen Culpepper (recent call-up); pitchers include Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Dean Kremer, Connor Prielipp, and relievers Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Morris. Buxton’s absence hurts the lineup’s speed/power.
Key Player Matchups & Notes
- Alonso (power vs. RHP) and Henderson vs. Matthews (who has allowed elevated HR rates).
- Orioles’ recent power surge (three HRs Tuesday) against a Twins staff that has been vulnerable at times.
- Twins’ Brooks Lee/Royce Lewis/Josh Bell production vs. Baz’s ability to induce weak contact and limit barrels.
- Bullpens: Both have solid late options (Cano/Kittredge for BAL; Hoffman/Minter for MIN), but Orioles’ recent usage and depth edge slightly favors them in a close game.
Season series: Orioles lead 3-2 heading into this game (after splitting the first two of this set).
Recent Team Forms
- Orioles: 4-6 in last 10; snapped a skid with Tuesday’s win. Offense has shown flashes (Alonso/Henderson hot) but overall consistency has been average (.23x team AVG range). Pitching has been respectable (team ERA ~4.2). Away record 26-32.
- Twins: 3-7 in last 10 (struggled recently before Monday’s win); home record 31-28. Offense ranks higher in runs/HR but pitching ERA sits around 4.6. Missing Buxton’s production and Ryan’s innings hurts.
Both teams are sellers/buyers mixed at the deadline context (Kremer to MIN from BAL), still mathematically alive for wild cards but needing streaks.
Series History & Betting Trends
- 2026 season series favors Baltimore slightly entering the finale.
- Recent meetings have been competitive with runs scored varying (9-5, 5-2).
Game Odds
Baltimore Orioles 9
Minnesota Twins – 109
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, August 11, 2026
