First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (6:40 p.m. PT; coverage on Padres.TV / Brewers.TV / MLB.TV).
Probable Starters
Brewers: RHP Logan Henderson (#43; 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 50.0 IP, 62 K in 10 starts).
The young right-hander has been outstanding with elite strikeout rates (~11.2 K/9), low walks, and strong recent outings (including scoreless or low-run starts). He is one of the more effective young arms in the rotation.
Padres: RHP Casey Mize (approx. 4-7, 3.40 ERA).
Mize provides a solid counter with competitive numbers, though he has been less dominant overall than Henderson.
Henderson holds a clear edge in ERA, WHIP, and recent form in this righty-vs-righty matchup.
Venue and Weather
Petco Park (pitcher-friendly dimensions). Forecast for Monday: Partly cloudy with daytime highs around 79–81°F, cooling into the upper 60s by evening. Patchy morning fog possible, light southwest/west winds (5–10 mph), very low chance of rain. Comfortable, dry conditions expected for a night game with minimal weather impact.
Injury Reports (key listed)
Brewers: Sal Frelick (OF, 10-day IL, shoulder), Cooper Pratt (INF, 10-day IL, hamstring), JoJo Romero (RP, 15-day IL), Joel Kuhnel (RP, shoulder), and longer-term absences including Brandon Woodruff (shoulder). Core lineup (Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, etc.) remains largely intact.
Padres: Miguel Andujar (INF/OF/DH, 10-day IL, wrist), Samad Taylor (OF, 10-day IL, oblique), Lucas Giolito (SP, elbow), Joe Musgrove (SP, elbow/rehab), Nick Pivetta (arm), Jason Adam (RP, shoulder), and others. Key bats like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts are available.
Current Rosters / Projected Emphases
Brewers (strong overall offense, ~.253 AVG, solid power and speed): Feature Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang (high RBI production), Jake Bauers, and supporting cast emphasizing contact, on-base skills, and baserunning. Top NL Central team with excellent pitching depth (team ERA ~3.48).
Padres (~.236 AVG, more power-oriented): Led by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado (team HR/RBI leader), Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, Ty France, and Xander Bogaerts. Competitive in the NL West wild-card picture with home-field support.
Key Player vs. Player Matchups
Henderson (RHP) vs. Padres hitters: Elite K ability and low WHIP challenge Tatis Jr., Machado, and Merrill. Henderson has limited hard contact effectively.
Mize (RHP) vs. Brewers hitters: Faces a balanced, high-contact Milwaukee lineup led by Chourio and Turang; power threats like Bauers remain key.
Team-level: Brewers’ superior record, pitching efficiency, and offense edge the matchup. Petco Park favors pitchers and can suppress scoring.
Recent Team Forms
Brewers (74-44, 1st NL Central): Excellent season with strong recent results (including series wins). High run production (~5 RPG range in broader stats) and elite pitching staff. Away record solid.
Padres (62-57, 3rd NL West): Competitive and in the wild-card mix after recent results (e.g., wins over Astros). Home form mixed but capable; pitching has been more inconsistent with injuries.
Series History
Prior 2026 meetings (May series) saw Milwaukee take the majority. Competitive interleague/NL matchups historically, with Petco often producing tighter, lower-scoring games. This opens a three-game set (Aug 10–12).
Betting Trends:
Unders frequent at Petco and in recent head-to-heads; strong road teams or favorites often cover in similar spots; public may lean the better overall record (Brewers).
Game Odds
Milwaukee Brewers – 109
San Diego Padres 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, August 9, 2026
