Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
Scheduled First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. EDT
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast – Citi Field
Temperature: 84°F at first pitch
Wind: 9–12 mph blowing out to right field
Humidity: 66%
Sky: Mostly sunny
Run Environment: Citi Field is normally pitcher-friendly, but warm temperatures + wind out to right give a modest boost to left-handed pull hitters and opposite-field right-handed hitters. Slightly elevated HR probability.
Probable Pitchers
Miami – RHP Jordan Phillips
(Phillips is Miami’s mid-rotation right-hander in 2026)
2026 Season: 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 117.0 IP, 22.9% K, 7.4% BB
Profile:
Four-seam/slider/split-change mix.
Generates swing-and-miss with his slider but can be homer-prone when fastball command lapses.
Mets’ lineup has several left-handed bats (McNeil, Nimmo, Lindor as a switch-hitter) who match up well against elevated four-seamers.
New York Mets – RHP Ty Thornton
(Thornton is the Mets’ young right-hander with developing command)
2026 Season: 4.67 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 109.2 IP, 20.8% K, 9.1% BB
Profile:
Sinker/slider pitcher with inconsistent command.
Vulnerable to left-handed power — dangerous against Miami’s core (Arraez, Chisholm, Sánchez).
Ground-ball tendencies help him at Citi Field, but wind blowing out reduces margin for error.
Current Rosters
Miami Marlins – Key Position Players
1B Josh Bell
2B Luis Arraez
SS Tim Anderson
3B Jake Burger
LF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
CF Bryan De La Cruz
RF Jesús Sánchez
DH Avisail García
C Nick Fortes / Kyle Manzardo
New York Mets – Key Position Players
1B Pete Alonso
2B Jeff McNeil
SS Francisco Lindor
3B Brett Baty
LF Brandon Nimmo
CF Drew Gilbert
RF Starling Marte
DH J.D. Martinez
C Francisco Álvarez / Tomás Nido
Injury Reports
Miami Marlins
Eury Pérez – IL (elbow)
Edward Cabrera – IL (shoulder)
Xavier Edwards – IL (ankle)
A.J. Puk – IL (lat strain)
New York Mets
Kodai Senga – IL (shoulder)
Tylor Megill – IL (forearm)
Ronny Mauricio – IL (knee)
Jose Quintana – IL (back)
Recent Team Form
Miami Marlins – Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Bullpen ERA last 10: 3.48.
Road record: 27–29.
Jazz Chisholm has 3 HR and 3 SB in his last 10 games.
New York Mets – Last 10 Games: 3–7
Offense averaging 3.8 runs per game.
Bullpen has struggled: 4.92 ERA last 10.
Home record: 25–31.
Pete Alonso has 4 HR in his last 8 games.
Series History (2024–2026)
Marlins have dominated the matchup since 2024.
2026 head-to-head: Marlins lead 5–2 entering this game.
Citi Field games between these teams since 2024 have averaged 8.1 runs.
Miami has won 7 of last 10 at Citi Field.
Key Player vs Player Matchups
Jordan Phillips vs Pete Alonso
Alonso crushes elevated fastballs and has elite pull power.
Phillips must rely on his slider to neutralize Alonso.
Edge: Alonso
Jordan Phillips vs Francisco Lindor
Lindor’s switch-hitting ability gives him flexibility; he hits righties better.
Phillips’ split-change could induce weak contact.
Edge: Lindor (slight)
Ty Thornton vs Luis Arraez
Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skills counter Thornton’s inconsistent command.
Thornton struggles to put Arraez away; high on-base probability.
Edge: Arraez
Ty Thornton vs Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm’s left-handed power plays well with wind blowing out.
Thornton’s sinker must stay down or Chisholm can do damage.
Edge: Chisholm
Betting Trends (2026 Season)
Miami Marlins
ML: 56–55
O/U: 52–57–2
As road favorite: 14–10
First 5 innings overs: 55%
New York Mets
ML: 47–64
O/U: 50–58–3
As home underdog: 16–22
Full-game overs at home: 59%
Head-to-head trends
Marlins have covered run line in 8 of last 11 meetings.
Overs have hit in 6 of last 9 at Citi Field.
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 9
New York Mets – 130
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 31, 2026
