Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. EDT
Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
Surface: Natural Grass
Capacity: ~41,800
Broadcast: Bally Sports Florida / SNY
Weather Forecast — Queens, NY
Temperature: 79°F at first pitch
Wind: 7–11 mph blowing in from right field
Humidity: ~63%
Conditions: Clear skies Impact: Citi Field plays pitcher‑friendly when wind blows in; suppresses HRs, especially for left‑handed pull hitters.
Probable Pitchers
Marlins — RHP Jimmy Junk
2026 Season: 6–6, 4.11 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Profile: Slider‑heavy right‑hander with good command
Strengths: Generates weak contact; strong vs right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to left‑handed power; struggles when behind in counts
Matchup Note: Mets’ left‑handed core (McNeil, Nimmo, Lindor as a switch‑hitter) matches up well vs Junk’s slider.
Mets — RHP Franklin Peralta
2026 Season: 5–8, 4.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Profile: Young power arm with a rising fastball and developing curve
Strengths: High strikeout upside; good vs aggressive hitters
Weaknesses: Command inconsistency; HR‑prone when fastball leaks up
Matchup Note: Marlins’ right‑handed bats (Burger, Chisholm Jr. as a righty vs lefties, though he’s a lefty hitter) can punish elevated heaters.
Current Rosters (Key Starters & Regulars)
(Reflecting 2026 active rosters as of July 31)
Marlins Lineup Core
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
RF Bryan De La Cruz
3B Jake Burger
1B Josh Bell
LF Jesús Sánchez
SS Tim Anderson
2B Xavier Edwards
C Nick Fortes
DH Dane Myers
Mets Lineup Core
CF Brandon Nimmo
SS Francisco Lindor
1B Pete Alonso
LF Jeff McNeil
RF Starling Marte
3B Brett Baty
2B Ronny Mauricio
C Francisco Alvarez
DH Mark Vientos
Injury Report
Marlins
Eury Pérez — IL (elbow)
Edward Cabrera — IL (shoulder)
Avisaíl García — IL (back)
Ryan Weathers — IL (lat strain)
Mets
Kodai Senga — IL (shoulder)
Luis Severino — IL (forearm)
Jose Quintana — IL (knee)
DJ Stewart — IL (wrist)
Recent Team Form
Marlins — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense improving (4.9 runs/game)
Bullpen stabilizing (3.40 ERA last 10)
Burger and De La Cruz both hot (combined 6 HR last 10 games)
Mets — Last 10 Games: 3–7
Offense inconsistent (3.8 runs/game)
Pitching staff struggling without Senga/Severino
Alonso and Lindor producing, but bottom of lineup cold
Series History (Last 10 Meetings)
Marlins lead 7–3
Miami has won 4 straight at Citi Field
Games tend to be low‑scoring at Citi Field due to park dimensions
Key Player Matchups
1. Jimmy Junk vs Francisco Lindor
Lindor excels vs slider‑heavy pitchers
Junk’s slider is his primary weapon Edge: Lindor
2. Franklin Peralta vs Jake Burger
Burger crushes elevated fastballs
Peralta’s fastball often leaks up Edge: Burger
3. Pete Alonso vs Junk’s Fastball
Alonso destroys right‑handed fastballs
Junk’s fastball is his weakest pitch Edge: Alonso
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs Peralta’s Curveball
Chisholm struggles vs high‑spin breaking balls
Peralta’s curveball is his best swing‑and‑miss pitch Edge: Peralta
Betting Trends
Marlins Trends
Marlins overs hit 58% on the road
Miami is 9–4 in last 13 games vs NL East opponents
Burger has reached base in 12 straight games
Mets Trends
Mets unders hit 61% at home
Mets are 4–11 in Peralta’s last 15 starts
Alonso has 5 HR in last 14 home games
Game Odds
Miami Marlins 8.5
New York Mets – 113
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 30, 2026
