Scheduled first pitch: 7:45 p.m. EDT
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
Busch Stadium is a fairly neutral park—slightly suppressing home runs but rewarding line‑drive contact. Gametime weather is listed around 86°F in St. Louis, typical warm, humid July conditions that give a mild boost to carry but don’t turn the park into a bandbox.
This is Game 3 of the set: Chicago has already taken the first two (7–3 and 10–2), and the season series is tied 4–4 entering this matchup.
Team profile and recent form
Chicago Cubs
Offense:
Runs: 548 (5.2 per game, 3rd in MLB)
Slash line: .248 AVG / .339 OBP / .415 SLG
Extra‑base hits: 173 doubles, 133 HR, 514 RBI, 901 hits
Pitching:
Team ERA/WHIP: 4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Runs allowed: 468 total (443 ER), 876 hits, 161 HR allowed
K/BB: 825 K, 321 BB (2.57 K/BB)
Bullpen:
22 saves, 17 blown in 39 chances (56.4% save rate)
38 holds; 347 relief appearances; 31.8% of inherited runners score
Recent form:
Last 10: 7–3, .304 AVG, 2.97 ERA, +39 run differential
Cubs bring one of the league’s best offenses and are red‑hot, dominating both at the plate and on the mound over the last 10 games.
St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 53–54 overall, 27–31 at home
Offense (top line):
Alec Burleson: .285 AVG, 26 doubles, 15 HR, 71 RBI
Team OPS around .695 with 471 runs scored (per pitcherstat preview)
Pitching:
Team ERA/WHIP: 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (very similar ERA to Chicago, slightly worse WHIP)
Recent form:
Last 10: 2–8, .219 AVG, 5.04 ERA, -18 run differential
St. Louis is scuffling badly—losers of three straight at home and outscored heavily over the last 10.
Probable pitching matchup
Matthew Boyd – LHP, Cubs
Season line: 6–1, 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 59 IP, 11 GS, 8.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Recent form (last 5 starts): 2.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP; two strong outings after a rougher one, ERA trending down.
Profile:
Strengths:
Limits home runs (0.92 HR/9) and keeps traffic manageable.
Recent starts show stability and quality‑start potential (QS in 60% of last 5).
Risks:
Not a pure ace; if command wavers, Cardinals’ top bats (Walker, Burleson, Herrera) can punish mistakes.
Dustin May – RHP, Cardinals
Season line: 5–7, 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 104 IP, 20 GS, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9
Recent form (last 5 starts): 6.03 ERA, 1.44 WHIP; alternating good and bad outings, command less stable.
Profile:
Strengths:
Excellent home‑run suppression (0.61 HR/9) despite higher ERA.
Swing‑and‑miss stuff; can rack up strikeouts when his command is on.
Risks:
Recent ERA spike; walks and big innings have crept in.
Faces a Cubs lineup that’s hot and has multiple hitters with prior success against him.
Pitching edge: Slightly Cubs, given Boyd’s recent trend and Chicago’s overall staff form, though May’s HR suppression keeps him dangerous.
Key batter vs pitcher matchups
Cardinals vs Matthew Boyd
Jordan Walker: 1 HR, 3 RBI, .667 AVG (3 AB), 2.417 OPS
Masyn Winn: .333 AVG (9 AB), .956 OPS
Alec Burleson: .286 AVG (7 AB), .572 OPS
Iván Herrera: 0-for-3 but with 1 RBI (sacrifice situations)
Walker has done serious damage in a tiny sample; Winn and Burleson have shown they can find hits against Boyd.
Cubs vs Dustin May
Pete Crow‑Armstrong: 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1.000 AVG (3 AB), 3.333 OPS
Alex Bregman: 1 HR, 2 RBI, .200 AVG (5 AB), 1.000 OPS
Ian Happ: .333 AVG (3 AB), 1.334 OPS
Dansby Swanson: .250 AVG (4 AB), 1.250 OPS
Miguel Amaya: .333 AVG (3 AB), 1 RBI
Multiple Cubs bats have already shown power and run production against May, especially Crow‑Armstrong and Bregman.
Injury reports
From ESPN pregame:
Cardinals
JoJo Romero (RP): 15‑Day IL (appendix)
Ramón Urías (INF): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Max Rajcic (SP): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Rotation depth and a key reliever are impacted, but the core lineup (Burleson, Walker, Herrera, Wetherholt) is intact.
Cubs
Hoby Milner (RP): 15‑Day IL (appendicitis)
Edward Cabrera (SP): 15‑Day IL (hamstring)
Justin Steele (SP): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Matt Shaw (INF): 10‑Day IL (hand)
Riley Martin (RP): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Hunter Harvey (RP): 60‑Day IL (tricep)
Phil Maton (RP): 15‑Day IL (knee)
Ethan Roberts (RP): 15‑Day IL (forearm)
Christopher Austin (INF): 60‑Day IL (knee)
Daniel Palencia (RP): 15‑Day IL (elbow)
Ben Brown (SP): 15‑Day IL (neck)
Porter Hodge (SP): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Cade Horton (SP): 60‑Day IL (forearm)
Shelby Miller (RP): 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Chicago’s pitching depth is heavily taxed, but the frontline lineup remains available and productive.
Series history and context
Season series: Tied 4–4 entering this game.
Current set:
Game 1 (7/27): Cubs 7, Cardinals 3
Game 2 (7/28): Cubs 10, Cardinals 2
St. Louis is on a three‑game home losing streak, while Chicago rides a two‑game win streak in this series and sits six games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central.
Betting trends and market
Trend notes:
Cubs’ offense is top‑3 in runs per game and has been scorching over the last 10.
Cardinals are 37–17 when they record at least eight hits—if they get to Boyd early, they can flip the script.
Recent form heavily favors Chicago (7–3 vs 2–8).
Game Odds
Chicago Cubs – 115
St. Louis Cardinals 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, July 28, 2026
