Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Venue Type: Pitcher‑leaning park with deep alleys and heavy summer air.
WEATHER / PARK CONDITIONS
New York Forecast:
Temp: 83°F
Humidity: 64%
Wind: SE 6 mph (blowing toward RF corner)
Precipitation: 10%
Conditions: Warm, partly cloudy
Weather slightly favors left‑handed pull hitters, but Citi Field remains pitcher‑friendly overall.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Atlanta — RHP Maximo Pérez
2026 Season: 7–3, 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Power righty with elite slider
Mets struggle vs. high‑spin breaking balls
Road ERA: 3.71
Key strength: swing‑and‑miss stuff; top‑tier K%
Key vulnerability: occasional walk spikes; early‑inning command variance
New York — RHP Ty Thornton
2026 Season: 4–6, 4.62 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Sinker/slider profile
Braves crush sinkers (team SLG .487 vs. sinkers)
Home ERA: 4.28
Key strength: induces ground balls
Key vulnerability: left‑handed power (Olson, Harris II)
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Atlanta Braves — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Offense averaging 5.2 runs/game
Bullpen elite (2.98 ERA last 10)
Road record: 29–22
Strength: top‑tier power, elite run prevention
Weakness: occasional swing‑and‑miss issues vs. elite sliders
New York Mets — Last 10 Games: 4–6
Offense averaging 4.0 runs/game
Bullpen inconsistent (4.77 ERA last 10)
Home record: 25–28
Strength: contact hitters (McNeil, Nimmo)
Weakness: bottom‑third MLB in SLG, struggles vs. power RHP
INJURY REPORT
Atlanta Braves
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. — Day‑to‑Day (knee soreness)
RP A.J. Minter — 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
SP Spencer Strider — Out for season (elbow)
C Sean Murphy — Active
New York Mets
1B Pete Alonso — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
SP Kodai Senga — IL (shoulder)
RP Edwin Díaz — 15‑Day IL (lat)
OF Starling Marte — Active but limited
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Maximo Pérez vs. Francisco Lindor
Lindor vs. sliders: .244 AVG, .421 SLG
Pérez’s slider is his best pitch Edge: Pérez
Maximo Pérez vs. Pete Alonso
Alonso vs. high‑velocity RHP: .271 AVG, .540 SLG
If Alonso plays, he’s the Mets’ biggest HR threat Edge: Alonso (if active)
Ty Thornton vs. Matt Olson
Olson vs. sinkers: .309 AVG, .612 SLG
Thornton’s sinker is his primary pitch Edge: Olson
Ty Thornton vs. Austin Riley
Riley crushes sliders (.298 AVG, .559 SLG)
Thornton’s slider is inconsistent Edge: Riley
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Braves lead 5–2
Last 20 meetings: Atlanta 13–7
At Citi Field (last 3 seasons): Atlanta 17–10
Braves have dominated Mets in games started by power RHP
BETTING TRENDS
Atlanta
Braves are 8–2 in their last 10 road games
Over is 9–4 in Atlanta’s last 13 games
Braves are 7–1 in their last 8 games vs. Mets
New York
Mets are 3–8 in Thornton’s last 11 starts
Under is 10–5 in Mets’ last 15 home games
Mets are 2–6 in their last 8 games vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Braves have covered RL in 6 of last 8
Over has hit in 7 of last 10
Atlanta has scored 5+ runs in 5 straight games vs. NYM
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Pérez: 2.7 WAR
Thornton: 1.0 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Atlanta: .764
New York: .703
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Atlanta: 3.12
New York: 4.68
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Atlanta: 5.1–5.8 runs
New York: 3.7–4.3 runs
Game Odds
Atlanta Braves 8.5
New York Mets – 106
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 26, 2026
