Venue: Fenway Park – Boston, Massachusetts
Surface: Natural grass
Capacity: ~37,700
Scheduled First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET / 1:10 PM PT
Weather Forecast (Boston, MA)
Temperature: 84°F Humidity: 66% Wind: 7 mph SW (blowing out toward the Green Monster) Rain Chance: 15% Conditions: Warm, slightly humid; ball expected to carry well to left field.
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Bo Bichette – SS: Day‑to‑day, hamstring tightness
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1B: Active, minor wrist soreness
Kevin Gausman – RHP: 15‑day IL, shoulder inflammation
Danny Jansen – C: Day‑to‑day, thumb bruise
Jordan Romano – RHP: Out, elbow recovery
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers – 3B: Active, minor quad soreness
Triston Casas – 1B: Day‑to‑day, ankle soreness
Brayan Bello – RHP: 15‑day IL, forearm strain
Tyler O’Neill – OF: Day‑to‑day, back stiffness
Kenley Jansen – RHP: Out, shoulder fatigue
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Dylan Cease – RHP, Blue Jays
2026 Season: 4.09 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 118.2 IP | 142 K | 42 BB
Profile: Four‑seam/slider/curve; elite strikeout ability; inconsistent command.
Strengths: Generates whiffs at elite rate; slider is devastating vs. right‑handed hitters.
Weaknesses: Walks can pile up; vulnerable to left‑handed power; Fenway’s dimensions challenge fly‑ball pitchers.
Vs. Red Sox Lineup:
Boston’s left‑handed bats (Devers, Casas, Duran) match well vs. Cease’s fastball.
Cease must avoid elevated sliders to Devers.
Sonny Gray – RHP, Red Sox
2026 Season: 3.62 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 116.1 IP | 118 K | 30 BB
Profile: Sinker/slider/curveball; excellent command; strong home splits.
Strengths: Keeps ball down; induces weak contact; elite vs. right‑handed hitters.
Weaknesses: Occasional trouble vs. aggressive left‑handed hitters; Toronto’s lefties (Schneider, Varsho) match up well.
Vs. Blue Jays Lineup:
Toronto’s inconsistent offense struggles vs. command‑heavy pitchers.
Gray’s sinker/slider combo is ideal for Fenway.
Key Player Matchups
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Dylan Cease
Devers crushes high‑velocity fastballs and elevated sliders.
Cease must rely on his curveball to disrupt timing.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Sonny Gray
Guerrero’s power vs. righties remains elite.
Gray must avoid middle‑middle sinkers.
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Cease
Duran’s speed and contact ability challenge Cease’s command.
Cease’s slider is key to neutralizing Duran.
Daulton Varsho (TOR) vs. Gray
Varsho’s left‑handed power plays well at Fenway.
Gray must keep the ball down to avoid extra‑base damage.
Recent Team Form
Toronto Blue Jays
Last 10 Games: 4–6
Road Record: 22–30
Offense: 4.2 runs/game; inconsistent; struggles with RISP
Pitching: 4.37 team ERA; bullpen unreliable
Trend: Competitive but inconsistent; offense depends heavily on Guerrero/Bichette.
Boston Red Sox
Last 10 Games: 6–4
Home Record: 29–22
Offense: 4.9 runs/game; strong situational hitting
Pitching: 3.98 team ERA; bullpen stabilizing
Trend: Playing confident baseball; lineup producing timely hits.
Series History
2024–2026 Combined: Red Sox lead 18–14
At Fenway Park: Red Sox lead 10–6
Boston has won four of the last five meetings.
Games tend to be high‑scoring at Fenway (avg. 9.3 runs/game).
Betting Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
4–6 in last 10 games
3–7 in Cease’s last ten starts
Over has hit in 6 of last 9 Blue Jays games
Boston Red Sox
6–4 in last 10 home games
5–2 in Gray’s last seven starts
Over has hit in 5 of last 8 Red Sox games
Head‑to‑Head
Red Sox have won 7 of last 10 meetings
Over has hit in 6 of last 10 matchups
Fenway Park boosts run scoring
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays – 109
Boston Red Sox 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 24, 2026
