Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee, Wisconsin
First Pitch: 7:10 PM CT / 5:10 PM PT
Surface: Indoor/outdoor retractable roof (grass-like turf)
Capacity: ~41,900
Venue Profile — American Family Field
A hitter‑friendly retractable‑roof stadium:
Boosts RH pull power, especially to LF.
Brewers’ lineup thrives here, particularly their middle‑order bats.
Mets’ pitching historically struggles in Milwaukee due to park factors.
Roof status can dramatically affect run scoring; warm weather usually means roof open → more carry.
Weather Forecast — Milwaukee, WI
(Roof status TBD; forecast influences decision)
Temperature: 82–85°F
Humidity: 55–65%
Wind: 8–12 mph (blowing out to left)
Conditions: Partly cloudy
Impact: If roof is open → boosts HR carry; if closed → neutral but still hitter‑leaning.
Team Form & Statistical Profile
New York Mets (43‑50)
Last 10 Games: 4‑6 Runs Per Game: 4.28 Runs Allowed: 4.92 Road Record: 20‑27
Team Identity
Streaky offense
Heavy reliance on Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Martinez
Rotation inconsistency
Bullpen volatility
One of the most unpredictable teams in the NL East
Milwaukee Brewers (63‑38)
Last 10 Games: 7‑3 Runs Per Game: 4.91 Runs Allowed: 3.88 Home Record: 34‑17
Team Identity
Contact‑plus‑power offense
Heavy reliance on William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, Jackson Chourio
Strong rotation depth
Elite bullpen anchored by Devin Williams
One of the most consistent teams in MLB
Listed Injury Reports
New York Mets
Kodai Senga (SP): Out — shoulder
Edwin Díaz (RP): Out — elbow
Starling Marte (OF): Day‑to‑day — groin
Jeff McNeil (INF): Out — wrist
Luis Severino (SP): Day‑to‑day — back
Mets’ pitching depth remains thin.
Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta (SP): Out — elbow
Devin Williams (RP): Day‑to‑day — back
Brice Turang (INF): Day‑to‑day — ankle
Garrett Mitchell (OF): Out — shoulder
Joe Ross (SP): Out — forearm
Brewers’ lineup remains intact despite pitching injuries.
Probable Pitchers
New York Mets — Christian Scott (RHP)
2026 Stats:
Record: 3‑5
ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.26
K/BB: Strong
Strengths: Four‑seam ride, slider depth
Weaknesses: HR susceptibility vs RH power
Matchup Outlook
Brewers’ RH power (Hoskins, Contreras, Chourio) is a tough matchup.
Scott must keep fastball down to avoid barrels.
Key battle: Scott vs Hoskins, who crushes elevated heaters.
Milwaukee Brewers — Henderson (RHP)
(Brewers’ rookie starter with strong command profile) 2026 Stats:
Record: 4‑2
ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.19
K/BB: Excellent
Strengths: Ground‑ball induction, changeup command
Weaknesses: Occasional struggles vs LH power
Matchup Outlook
Mets’ LH bats (Nimmo, Lindor) match reasonably well.
Henderson’s changeup plays extremely well in Milwaukee.
Key battle: Henderson vs Lindor, who hits changeups well.
Key Player vs Player Matchups
1. William Contreras (MIL) vs Christian Scott (NYM)
Contreras crushes elevated fastballs
Scott’s HR susceptibility is a concern Edge: Contreras
2. Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs Henderson (MIL)
Lindor excels vs changeups
Henderson must keep ball down Edge: Even
3. Rhys Hoskins (MIL) vs Mets Bullpen
Hoskins thrives in late‑inning leverage
Mets’ bullpen is extremely inconsistent Edge: Hoskins
4. Pete Alonso (NYM) vs American Family Field
Alonso’s pull power fits the park perfectly Edge: Alonso
Recent Team Trends
New York Mets
Offense averaging 4.3 runs last 10
Bullpen ERA: 4.61
Road OPS: .705
Poor in close games (14‑22 in one‑run contests)
Milwaukee Brewers
Offense averaging 5.0 runs last 10
Bullpen ERA: 3.41
Home OPS: .755
Excellent in close games (23‑12 in one‑run contests)
Series History
2026 Season: First meeting
Last 20 meetings: Brewers lead 12‑8
At American Family Field (last 10): Brewers 7‑3
Scott career vs MIL: First appearance
Henderson career vs NYM: First appearance
Betting Trends
Mets ML: 4‑6 last 10
Brewers ML: 7‑3 last 10
Mets O/U: Over in 6 of last 10
Brewers O/U: Over in 7 of last 10
American Family Field Overs: 8 of last 12
Mets on road: 3‑7 last 10
Brewers at home: 8‑2 last 10
Game Odds
New York Mets 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers – 138
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026
