Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
Game 1 First Pitch: 1:05 PM ET
Game 2 First Pitch: 7:05 PM ET
Weather: 84–87°F, partly cloudy, light winds blowing out to RF (slightly hitter‑friendly)
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GAME 1 PREVIEW — Mitch Keller (PIT) vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
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Team Form & Context
Pirates (52–49)
Last 10: 6–4, +9 run differential
Road record: 25–26
Offense: .242 AVG, .316 OBP, 4.3 runs/game
Pitching: 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Strength: bullpen late‑inning leverage (Bednar, Holderman)
Weakness: inconsistent middle‑order production
Yankees (56–44)
Last 10: 5–5, –2 run differential
Home record: 30–20
Offense: .247 AVG, .330 OBP, 4.7 runs/game
Pitching: 3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Strength: top‑tier rotation + elite HR power
Weakness: streaky offense when Judge/Soto aren’t carrying
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Keller — RHP, PIT
2026: 9–6, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 124 K
Road ERA: 3.60
Last 5 starts: 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Profile: heavy sinker usage, improved command, limits HRs
Key concern: Yankees’ left‑handed power (Soto, Rizzo)
Gerrit Cole — RHP, NYY
2026: 7–4, 2.88 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 132 K
Home ERA: 2.55
Last 5 starts: 2.41 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Profile: elite fastball/slider combo, high K‑rate, dominates RH hitters
Key concern: Pirates’ contact‑heavy approach vs high‑velo arms
Current Lineups (Projected)
Pirates
Reynolds — LF
Hayes — 3B
Cruz — SS
Suwinski — RF
Rowdy Tellez — 1B
Henry Davis — C
Nick Gonzales — 2B
Edward Olivares — DH
Ji Hwan Bae — CF
Yankees
Anthony Volpe — SS
Juan Soto — RF
Aaron Judge — CF
Giancarlo Stanton — DH
Gleyber Torres — 2B
Austin Wells — C
Ben Rice — 1B
Alex Verdugo — LF
Oswaldo Cabrera — 3B
Injury Reports
Pirates
Quinn Priester — 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
JT Brubaker — 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Michael Burrows — 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Endy Rodriguez — 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Yankees
Nestor Cortes — 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
Clarke Schmidt — 60‑Day IL (lat)
Jasson Domínguez — 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Jonathan Loáisiga — 60‑Day IL (elbow)
Key Matchups
1. Keller vs Juan Soto
Soto vs RHP in 2026: .311 AVG, .425 OBP, .590 SLG
Keller’s sinker runs into Soto’s launch zone Advantage: Soto
2. Cole vs Oneil Cruz
Cruz vs high‑velo RHP: .247 AVG, 32% K rate
Cole’s elevated fastball is a bad matchup for Cruz Advantage: Cole
3. Pirates bullpen vs Yankees late‑inning power
PIT bullpen ERA last 30 days: 3.12
NYY HR in innings 7–9: Top 3 MLB High‑leverage volatility
Betting Trends
Pirates: 28–18 as underdogs of +120 to +160
Yankees: 34–12 as home favorites
Total:
PIT unders: 52%
NYY overs: 55%
Cole home unders: 61%
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GAME 2 PREVIEW — Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Max Fried (NYY)
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Team Form & Context
Same teams, but Game 2 shifts pitching advantage dramatically toward New York.
Probable Pitchers
Bubba Chandler — RHP, PIT
2026: 4–5, 4.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 71 K
Road ERA: 5.10
Profile: electric stuff, inconsistent command
Key concern: Yankees crush fastball‑heavy pitchers
Max Fried — LHP, NYY
2026: 8–6, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 112 K
Home ERA: 2.90
Profile: elite ground‑ball rate, soft‑contact machine
Key concern: Pirates’ RH bats (Hayes, Davis, Gonzales)
Projected Lineups (Game 2 Adjustments)
Pirates
Expect more RH bats vs Fried:
Reynolds
Hayes
Cruz
Davis
Gonzales
Olivares
Suwinski
Tellez
Bae
Yankees
Same as Game 1, possibly resting Stanton or Verdugo in night game.
Key Matchups
1. Chandler vs Judge
Judge vs RHP: .297 AVG, .620 SLG
Chandler’s command issues + Judge’s plate discipline = danger Advantage: Judge
2. Fried vs Hayes
Hayes vs LHP: .288 AVG, low K rate
Fried’s curveball neutralizes contact hitters Advantage: Fried
3. Pirates bullpen fatigue
Game 2 of a doubleheader → bullpen usage matters
Pirates pen depth weaker than Yankees Advantage: NYY
Betting Trends
Pirates in Game 2 of doubleheaders: 2–7 last 9
Yankees in Game 2: 6–3 last 9
Fried night‑game ERA: 2.71
Chandler road overs: 63%
GAME 1 ODDS
Pittsburgh Pirates 9.5
New York Yankees – 157
GAME 2 ODDS
Pittsburgh Pirates 8.5
New York Yankees – 161
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026
