Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York
Scheduled First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. EDT (Game 2 of the series)
Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Bubba Chandler (RHP)
NYY: Will Warren (RHP) Weather: 78°F at gametime in the Bronx
Concise Takeaway
New York holds a stronger record, better run prevention, and home-field advantage, while Pittsburgh brings one of MLB’s most productive offenses (5.33 runs per game). Chandler vs. Warren is a matchup of developing right-handers, and both teams enter with solid recent form (6–4 last 10). Expect run scoring opportunities, especially given Pittsburgh’s high OBP and New York’s power profile.
Team Form & Statistical Profile
Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 52–49
Runs For / Against: 5.33 RF / 4.82 RA per game
Last 10 Games: 7–3, .280 AVG, 4.24 ERA, +27 run differential
Slugging: .428
OBP: .341 (2nd in NL)
Season HR: 129 HRs
New York Yankees
Record: 56–44
Runs For / Against: 4.75 RF / 3.87 RA per game
Last 10 Games: 6–4, .247 AVG, 3.27 ERA, +7 run differential
Home Runs: 144 HR (AL-leading 1.5 per game)
Pitching Matchup
Bubba Chandler — Pittsburgh
Pirates’ rotation has been inconsistent, but Chandler has shown flashes (4.2 IP, 3 ER vs MIL on July 11).
Pirates’ staff ERA: 4.26; WHIP: 1.31; 917 strikeouts; 104 HR allowed
Will Warren — Yankees
Previously faced PIT on April 6, 2025 (4 IP, 4 ER) — historical note, not predictive.
Yankees’ staff has been stronger overall, allowing just 3.87 RA per game.
Current Rosters & Key Hitters
Pirates Hitters
From Baseball Savant’s July 21 preview:
Esmerlyn Valdez: .364 xwOBA, 93.1 EV, 55.6% hard-hit rate
Bryan Reynolds: .366 xwOBA, 47.2% hard-hit rate
Ryan O’Hearn: 16 HR, 64 RBI (team power anchor)
Henry Davis: 75.8% zone swing rate, 9% walk rate
Marcell Ozuna: .311 xwOBA, 30.7% under% (fly-ball heavy)
Yankees Hitters
Ben Rice: 29 HR, .596 SLG (elite power)
Cody Bellinger: 11-for-38 recently, steady contact profile
Injury Reports
Pirates
Oneil Cruz — 60-Day IL (hand)
Endy Rodriguez — 10-Day IL (lower body)
Spencer Horwitz — 10-Day IL (hamstring)
Evan Sisk — 15-Day IL (elbow)
Konnor Griffin — 60-Day IL (finger)
Chris Devenski — 60-Day IL (illness)
Yankees
Aaron Judge — 60-Day IL (rib)
Carlos Rodón — 15-Day IL (elbow)
Max Fried — 15-Day IL (elbow)
Giancarlo Stanton — 10-Day IL (leg)
Clarke Schmidt — 60-Day IL (elbow)
Series History & Head-to-Head
Last 10 H2H: PIT leads 6–4; O/U 7–2–1
Most Recent Game (July 20, 2026): Yankees 8–5 over Pirates
NYY: Ryan Weathers 4.2 IP
PIT: Braxton Ashcraft 3.0 IP
Key Matchups
1. Bubba Chandler vs. Ben Rice
Rice’s 29 HR and .596 SLG make him the most dangerous bat in this matchup. Chandler’s HR suppression will be tested.
2. Will Warren vs. Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds’ .366 xwOBA and strong hard-hit profile give PIT a reliable middle-order threat.
3. Bullpen Battle
Pirates’ bullpen: 51.4% save rate, 31% inherited runners scoring (high-risk) Yankees’ bullpen has been steadier, contributing to their superior run prevention.
GAME ODDS
Pittsburgh Pirates 9.5
New York Yankees – 125
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 20, 2026
