Venue: Petco Park
Location: San Diego, California
First Pitch: 1:10 PM PT / 4:10 PM ET
Broadcast: Sportsnet (Canada) / Bally Sports San Diego / MLB.TV
Weather Update — San Diego, CA
Temperature: 76–80°F at first pitch
Humidity: 60–65%
Wind: 7–10 mph (blowing out to right‑center)
Rain Chance: <5%
Impact:
Classic Petco Park conditions: mild, pitcher‑friendly
Slight breeze may help right‑handed opposite‑field power
Expect controlled scoring unless bullpens falter late
Team Records & Standings
Toronto Blue Jays — 45–50 (4th in AL East)
Offense inconsistent
Rotation strong at top, thin behind Gausman
Bullpen middle‑tier
Road record: 22–27
San Diego Padres — 47–48 (3rd in NL West)
Offense streaky but dangerous at home
Rotation stabilizing behind Márquez
Bullpen improving
Home record: 25–23
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Bo Bichette — Probable (wrist)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Out (hamstring)
Chris Bassitt — Out (shoulder)
Daulton Varsho — Questionable (illness)
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. — Probable (ankle)
Xander Bogaerts — Out (back)
Joe Musgrove — Out (elbow)
Luis Campusano — Questionable (illness)
Impact:
Toronto missing Guerrero Jr. removes their biggest power threat.
Padres missing Bogaerts weakens their right‑handed contact hitting.
Pitching Matchup — Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. Germán Márquez (SD)
Toronto Blue Jays — Kevin Gausman (RHP)
Record: 7–7 ERA: 3.66 WHIP: 1.18 K/BB: Elite strikeout‑to‑walk ratio
Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, splitter, slider
Scouting Notes:
Splitter remains one of MLB’s best out pitches
Padres’ lineup struggles vs. elite vertical movement
Petco Park suits his fly‑ball tendencies
Must avoid middle‑middle fastballs to Tatis and Cronenworth
San Diego Padres — Germán Márquez (RHP)
Record: 6–6 ERA: 4.02 WHIP: 1.27 K/BB: Solid command
Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, curveball, slider, sinker
Scouting Notes:
Curveball generates soft contact
Blue Jays’ lineup struggles at times vs. elite breaking balls
Petco Park suppresses HRs, helping his fly‑ball profile
Must avoid falling behind in counts vs. Bichette and Springer
Recent Team Form
Toronto Blue Jays — Last 10 Games
4–6
Offense averaging 4.1 runs per game
Bullpen ERA: 3.88
Trending downward; scoring issues persist
San Diego Padres — Last 10 Games
6–4
Offense averaging 4.7 runs per game
Rotation ERA: 3.92
Trending upward; strong home performances
Series History
All‑Time: Blue Jays lead 22–20
Last 10 Meetings: Padres lead 6–4
2026 Season Series: First meeting
At Petco Park: Padres have won 5 of last 7
Key Note: Toronto has scored 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 8 games vs. San Diego.
Key Player Matchups
Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Germán Márquez (SD)
Bichette: .279 AVG, 14 HR
Márquez’s curveball can challenge aggressive hitters Edge: Slight to Bichette
George Springer (TOR) vs. Padres Bullpen
Springer: .254 AVG, 13 HR
Padres bullpen ranks middle‑tier Edge: Springer
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Tatis: .271 AVG, 18 HR
Gausman’s splitter can neutralize aggressive right‑handed hitters Edge: Slight to Gausman
Jake Cronenworth (SD) vs. Blue Jays Pitching
Cronenworth: .262 AVG, 12 HR
Jays pitching struggles at times vs. disciplined left‑handed hitters Edge: Cronenworth
Statistical Comparison (2026 Season)
| Category | Blue Jays | Padres |
| Runs per Game | 4.18 | 4.52 |
| Team ERA | 4.21 | 4.08 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.88 | 3.71 |
| OPS | .712 | .731 |
| Home Runs | 98 | 112 |
| Defensive Runs Saved | +4 | +7 |
Key Insight: Padres hold advantages in offense, rotation stability, and home‑field performance; Blue Jays hold slight edge in bullpen.
Betting Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
3–7 in last 10 road games
2–8 in last 10 vs. NL West
Unders hit in 5 of last 7 Gausman starts
Jays 1–6 in last seven Sunday games
San Diego Padres
7–3 in last 10 home games
6–2 in last 8 vs. teams below .500
Overs hit in 5 of last 7 Márquez starts
Padres 5–1 in last six day games
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Padres have covered run line in 6 of last 9
Average total last 10 meetings: 8.3 runs
Unders hit in 6 of last 10 matchups
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays – 123
San Diego Padres 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 11, 2026
