Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Probable Pitchers: BOS — Sonny Gray (RHP) vs. NYM — Nolan McLean (RHP)
Boston enters the matchup trying to climb back toward .500, while the Mets continue to search for consistency in a season marked by injuries and uneven offense.
Weather Outlook — Queens, NY
A warm July night at Citi Field:
Temperature: 82–86°F
Wind: 6–10 mph blowing out toward left‑center
Humidity: Moderate
Rain: Low chance Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly conditions, especially for right‑handed pull hitters.
Team Records & Recent Form
Boston Red Sox (43–48)
Last 10: 4–6
Road Record: Slightly below .500
Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense inconsistent
Strengths:
Veteran rotation presence (Gray)
Improved bullpen
Weaknesses:
Low run production
Inconsistent middle‑order hitting
New York Mets (40–54)
Last 10: 3–7
Home Record: Below .500
Trend: Offense struggling; pitching depth tested
Strengths:
Power potential in top of lineup
Solid defense
Weaknesses:
High strikeout rate
Bullpen volatility
Struggles vs. veteran right‑handed starters
Starting Pitcher Breakdown
BOS — Sonny Gray (RHP)
Profile: Veteran ace with elite command and a sharp curveball
Strengths:
High ground‑ball rate
Excellent vs. right‑handed hitters
Keeps ball in the park
Weaknesses:
Occasional early‑inning struggles
Vulnerable to left‑handed power
Matchup vs. NYM: Mets’ lineup leans right‑handed — advantage Gray.
NYM — Nolan McLean (RHP)
Profile: Young arm with power fastball and developing slider
Strengths:
Generates swings‑and‑misses
Effective vs. left‑handed hitters
Weaknesses:
Command inconsistency
Prone to HRs when behind in counts
Matchup vs. BOS: Boston’s lineup has several disciplined hitters (Devers, Story) who can exploit McLean’s walk issues.
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers: Healthy
Trevor Story: Healthy
Tyler O’Neill: Day‑to‑day (hamstring)
Bullpen: Fully available
New York Mets
Pete Alonso: Healthy
Francisco Lindor: Healthy
Starling Marte: IL (groin)
Rotation: Depth arms on IL
Key Player Matchups
1. Rafael Devers vs. Nolan McLean
Devers’ ability to crush fastballs makes him Boston’s biggest threat.
2. Pete Alonso vs. Sonny Gray
Alonso’s power vs. Gray’s curveball is the marquee matchup — Gray must avoid middle‑in mistakes.
3. Francisco Lindor vs. Gray
Lindor’s switch‑hitting versatility challenges Gray’s pitch mix.
4. Trevor Story vs. McLean
Story’s plate discipline could force McLean into deep counts.
Series History
Red Sox have won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
At Citi Field, BOS is 4–3 in their last seven.
Games between these teams tend to be low‑scoring early, high‑scoring late due to bullpen volatility.
Betting Trends
Boston Red Sox
Under has hit in 6 of their last 9 games.
BOS is 7–3 in their last 10 games vs. losing teams.
Gray’s starts often trend Under.
New York Mets
Mets are 3–8 in their last 11 home games.
Over has hit in 5 of their last 7 at Citi Field.
NYM struggles vs. veteran right‑handed starters.
Game Odds
Boston Red Sox 7.5
New York Mets – 128
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 9, 2026
