Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, New York
Race: Grade III Victory Ride Stakes – Race 9
Scheduled Post Time: 5:40 PM ET
Conditions: 6½ furlongs, dirt, 3‑year‑old fillies, purse $225,000
Expected weather and track condition
Temperature: Typical July Saratoga afternoon in the 80–85°F range
Sky: Partly sunny, summer humidity
Wind: Light to moderate (5–10 mph)
Likely track: Fast dirt, barring thunderstorms
(Weather based on regional climatology; race‑day forecast not yet specific.)
Field overview
| Prog # | Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L Odds |
| 1 | 1 | Sippin Pretty | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Ian R. Wilkes | 20/1 |
| 2 | 2 | Iron Orchard | Joel Rosario | Steven M. Asmussen | 5/1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carmel Coast | Tyler Gaffalione | D. Whitworth Beckman | 8/1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sneaky Good | Jose L. Ortiz | Brad H. Cox | 8/1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tommy Jo | John R. Velazquez | Todd A. Pletcher | 7/2 |
| 6 | 6 | Peach Tie | Manuel Franco | Brittany T. Russell | 12/1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mythical | Edgard J. Zayas | Jorge Delgado | 9/2 |
| 8 | 8 | Tessellate | Dylan Davis | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | 20/1 |
| 9 | 9 | A Fine Chardonnay | Brian J. Hernandez Jr. | Ian R. Wilkes | 12/1 |
| 10 | 10 | Goodall | Flavien Prat | Steven M. Asmussen | 3/1 |
Horse‑by‑horse analysis
1 – Sippin Pretty (PP 1)
Pedigree: Yaupon – Tiz Imaginary (by Tizway)
Connections: Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.; trainer Ian R. Wilkes.
Style / recent form: Wilkes typically develops fillies patiently; Sippin Pretty has been competing in allowance/overnight stakes company, showing mid‑pack speed but not yet graded‑stakes punch. From the rail at 6½ furlongs, she must break sharply to avoid traffic.
Track preference: Dirt sprinter; pedigree suggests she handles fast surfaces well.
Outlook: At 20/1, she’s a deep‑exotics type who needs a perfect inside trip and a pace collapse.
2 – Iron Orchard (PP 2)
Pedigree: Authentic – Onebrethatatime (by Brethren)
Connections: Joel Rosario for Steve Asmussen.
Recent finishes / class: BloodHorse notes she is a Grade 1 winner making her first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) on Oct. 31, 2025.
Style: Versatile filly with tactical speed; Rosario can place her just off the leaders and time the move.
Track preference: Proven on fast dirt; Saratoga’s surface should suit her.
Outlook: At 5/1, she’s a major win threat if she returns near her Breeders’ Cup form.
3 – Carmel Coast (PP 3)
Pedigree: Omaha Beach – Carmel Beauty (by Arch)
Connections: Tyler Gaffalione; trainer D. Whitworth Beckman.
Recent form: Stakes‑placed filly with solid sprint figures; Omaha Beach progeny have shown strong speed and versatility.
Style: Stalker who sits just behind the pace; Gaffalione excels at saving ground and producing a late run.
Outlook: At 8/1, she’s a live outsider—especially if the pace gets contested up front.
4 – Sneaky Good (PP 4)
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Gale (by Tonalist)
Connections: Jose L. Ortiz; trainer Brad H. Cox.
Recent finishes: Cox’s filly has been competitive in listed/graded sprints, typically finishing in the top three with strong speed figures.
Style: Tactical speed; can press or stalk. Into Mischief offspring are elite at one‑turn distances.
Outlook: At 8/1, she’s a dangerous mid‑price option—very usable in exactas and trifectas.
5 – Tommy Jo (PP 5)
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Mother Mother (by Pioneerof the Nile)
Connections: John R. Velazquez; trainer Todd A. Pletcher.
Recent finishes / class: BloodHorse notes Tommy Jo is a Grade 1 winner and, like Iron Orchard, makes her first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).
Style: High‑cruise speed with the ability to sit just off the leaders; Velazquez is masterful at rationing pace.
Outlook: At 7/2, she’s one of the two key class horses—if she’s fit off the layoff, she can control or stalk the pace and prove very tough to reel in.
6 – Peach Tie (PP 6)
Pedigree: Preservationist – Belles Orb (by Orb)
Connections: Manuel Franco; trainer Brittany T. Russell.
Recent finishes: Peach Tie is the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) winner, having taken that race at Pimlico while defending home track from shippers.
Style: Stalker/closer with a strong late punch; Russell’s barn has been hot in sprint stakes.
Outlook: At 12/1, she’s a serious value play—already proven at graded sprint level and capable of mowing down tiring speed.
7 – Mythical (PP 7)
Pedigree: St Patrick’s Day – Lailoni (by Brethren)
Connections: Edgard J. Zayas; trainer Jorge Delgado.
Recent form: Consistent stakes performer in Florida with strong speed figures; often right there at the finish.
Style: Pace‑pressing filly who can sit just off the leaders and grind.
Outlook: At 9/2, she’s a key contender—especially if the race shape favors a pressing trip rather than deep closers.
8 – Tessellate (PP 8)
Pedigree: McKinzie – Shotdowninflames (by Trappe Shot)
Connections: Dylan Davis; trainer Saffie A. Joseph Jr..
Recent form: Stakes‑placed; Joseph’s barn ships aggressively and often improves horses in sprint spots.
Style: Mid‑pack stalker; outside draw gives her a clean lane but she risks losing ground.
Outlook: At 20/1, she’s more of a superfecta type unless she takes a big step forward.
9 – A Fine Chardonnay (PP 9)
Pedigree: Maclean’s Music – Andele (by Bernardini)
Connections: Brian J. Hernandez Jr.; trainer Ian R. Wilkes.
Recent form: Has shown flashes of talent in allowance and minor stakes; Maclean’s Music progeny often have sharp early speed.
Style: Can press or stalk; outside draw lets Hernandez keep her in the clear.
Outlook: At 12/1, she’s a mid‑price filly who could sneak into the trifecta if she improves.
10 – Goodall (PP 10)
Pedigree: Yaupon – Moon Over Mag Bay (by Malibu Moon)
Connections: Flavien Prat; trainer Steve Asmussen.
Recent form: BloodHorse lists her as a key contender; she’s a multiple stakes winner with strong sprint figures and consistent performances.
Style: High‑quality stalker with push‑button acceleration; Prat is elite at timing late runs in one‑turn races.
Outlook: The morning‑line favorite at 3/1—she’s the most reliable current‑form filly and doesn’t have the layoff question that Tommy Jo and Iron Orchard face.
Pace and race shape
Likely early speed: Tommy Jo, Iron Orchard, Mythical
Pressers/stalkers: Goodall, Sneaky Good, Carmel Coast, Peach Tie
Closers: Peach Tie, A Fine Chardonnay, Tessellate
With multiple pace elements and 6½ furlongs on fast dirt, expect a strong early tempo. That should set things up for a high‑class stalker like Goodall or a proven closer like Peach Tie if the leaders overdo it.
Predicted order of finish
Goodall (PP 10) – Best current form, elite rider, perfect stalking outside draw.
Tommy Jo (PP 5) – Grade 1 class; dangerous if fit off the layoff.
Peach Tie (PP 6) – Proven graded sprint closer; big value at 12/1.
Iron Orchard (PP 2) – Breeders’ Cup class; may need one off the bench.
Mythical (PP 7) – Honest pace‑presser; likely to hang on for a share.
