First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Venue: Great American Ball Park – Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
Capacity: ~42,000
Park Profile: Extreme hitter‑friendly, boosts HRs to LF/RF
Weather Update
Great American Ball Park is outdoors — weather matters.
- Temperature: 84°F (29°C) at first pitch
- Humidity: 63%
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to right field
- Conditions: Mostly clear skies
- Impact:
- Boosts fly‑ball carry
- Slight advantage to left‑handed power hitters
- Could elevate HR probability
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies (51–41)
- Bryce Harper (1B/OF): Probable – minor elbow soreness; expected to play.
- Trea Turner (SS): Available – full workload after rest day.
- Kyle Schwarber (OF): Questionable – quad tightness; game‑time decision.
- José Alvarado (RP): Out – forearm strain; 2–3 weeks.
- Team Status: Lineup mostly intact; bullpen missing a key late‑inning arm.
Cincinnati Reds (41–49)
- Elly De La Cruz (SS): Available – minor wrist bruise; cleared.
- Matt McLain (2B): Out – shoulder surgery; long‑term.
- Hunter Greene (SP): Out – lat strain; 4–6 weeks.
- Nick Lodolo (SP): Probable – blister issue; not pitching today.
- Team Status: Rotation depth thin; lineup healthy.
Team Records & Recent Form
Philadelphia Phillies
- Record: 51–41 (2nd in NL East)
- Last 10 Games: 6–4
- Road Record: 24–22
- Run Differential: +46
- Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense streaky but dangerous.
Cincinnati Reds
- Record: 41–49 (4th in NL Central)
- Last 10 Games: 4–6
- Home Record: 22–23
- Run Differential: -28
- Trend: Inconsistent offense; bullpen overworked.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Corbin Burns – RHP, Phillies
- 2026 Stats: 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 118 K, 27 BB
- Last 5 Starts: 3–1, 2.88 ERA
- Strengths: Cutter dominance, elite command, strong road splits.
- Weaknesses: Occasional HR issues in hitter‑friendly parks.
- Matchup Note: Reds’ lineup is aggressive — Burns’ cutter can exploit chase tendencies.
Cincinnati Reds – Starter TBD (Bullpen Game Likely)
With Greene and Lodolo unavailable, Cincinnati is expected to use a bullpen‑heavy approach.
- Projected Opener: Right‑hander with mid‑tier strikeout rate
- Bullpen ERA: 4.32 (bottom‑third MLB)
- Weakness: Struggles vs top‑tier offenses; poor HR suppression.
- Matchup Note: Phillies’ power bats have a major advantage.
Key Player Matchups
1. Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Reds Pitching Staff
Harper’s ability to punish mistakes is amplified in this ballpark. If Schwarber sits, Harper becomes the primary HR threat.
2. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Corbin Burns
Elly’s elite bat speed vs Burns’ cutter. Burns must keep pitches off the inner half.
3. Nick Castellanos (PHI) vs. Great American Ball Park
Castellanos’ pull power plays extremely well here; he’s historically strong in Cincinnati.
4. Reds Left‑Handed Bats vs. Burns
Burns’ cutter is especially effective vs lefties — a major challenge for players like Fraley and Benson.
Series History
- 2026 Season Series: Phillies lead 2–1
- 2025 Season Series: Phillies won 4–2
- At Great American Ball Park (last 20 games): Phillies lead 11–9 Philadelphia has handled Cincinnati well in recent seasons, especially when their ace is on the mound.
Betting Trends
Philadelphia Phillies
- 6–4 in last 10 games
- Under has hit in 5 of last 7 road games
- Burns starts: Phillies 12–6 last 18
- Phillies are 5–2 vs NL Central in last 7
Cincinnati Reds
- 4–6 in last 10 games
- Over has hit in 7 of last 10 home games
- Reds are 2–8 in last 10 vs teams above .500
- Bullpen ERA rising over last 14 days
GAME ODDS
Philadelphia Phillies 9
Cincinnati Reds – 130
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, July 7, 2026
