First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET / 3:40 PM PT
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
Park Factor: One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks, especially for left‑handed power
Weather Report — Cincinnati, OH
Great American Ball Park is extremely sensitive to summer weather.
Temperature: 84–88°F at first pitch
Humidity: 60–70%
Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to right‑center
Conditions: Partly cloudy
Impact:
Boost to left‑handed pull power
Warm, humid air increases carry
Strong lean toward Over unless Wheeler dominates
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies
One bullpen arm on IL
Corner infielder day‑to‑day
Core lineup intact
Wheeler fully healthy
Cincinnati Reds
One reliever on IL
Outfielder day‑to‑day
Abbott fully active
Everyday lineup mostly healthy
Both teams enter relatively healthy for midseason.
Team Records & Statistical Profile
Philadelphia Phillies (50–41)
Last 10: 6–4
Road Record: 23–22
Runs/Game: 4.78
Team ERA: 3.92
Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense improving
Season Arc: NL Wild Card contender
Cincinnati Reds (41–48)
Last 10: 4–6
Home Record: 21–23
Runs/Game: 4.41
Team ERA: 4.56
Trend: Inconsistent; bullpen shaky
Season Arc: Trying to climb back toward .500
Probable Pitchers
PHI — RHP Zack Wheeler
Record: 8–5
ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.08
Profile:
96–98 mph fastball
Elite slider
Top‑tier command
Strengths: Dominant vs right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses: Occasional HR issues in hitter‑friendly parks
Matchup Note: Reds’ left‑handed bats (De La Cruz, Fraley) will test him.
CIN — LHP Andrew Abbott
Record: 6–7
ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.29
Profile:
Fastball/curve/change mix
Strong vs left‑handed hitters
Vulnerable to right‑handed power
Strengths: Good home strikeout rate
Weaknesses: HR‑prone in Great American Ball Park
Matchup Note: Phillies’ right‑handed core (Harper, Bohm, Castellanos) fits well vs Abbott.
Key Player Matchups
Phillies Offense vs Andrew Abbott
Bryce Harper: .285, 19 HR — elite vs LHP
Alec Bohm: .280, strong vs curveballs
Nick Castellanos: .265, 15 HR — perfect matchup in Cincinnati
Edge: Phillies — right‑handed power advantage.
Reds Offense vs Zack Wheeler
Elly De La Cruz: .260, 17 HR — huge power/speed threat
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand: .255, 14 HR — strong vs high‑velocity arms
TJ Friedl: .275, OBP machine
Edge: Wheeler — Reds chase high‑spin sliders.
Series History
Phillies lead recent meetings
Phillies have won 6 of last 9 vs Cincinnati
At Great American Ball Park: Phillies have won 4 of last 6
Reds have scored 3 or fewer in 5 of last 8 vs PHI pitching
Betting Trends
Philadelphia Phillies
6–4 last 10
4–2 last 6 road games
Unders hit in 6 of last 10
Wheeler starts often trend Under
Cincinnati Reds
4–6 last 10
3–4 last 7 home games
Overs hit in 7 of last 10 (park effect)
Underdog in most home games
Head‑to‑Head
Phillies have covered run line in 4 of last 6
Unders hit in 5 of last 8
GAME ODDS
Philadelphia Phillies – 167
Cincinnati Reds 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 6, 2026
