First Pitch: 7:20 PM ET
Venue: Truist Park, 755 Battery Ave SE, Atlanta, GA
Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
Broadcast: Bally Sports South / SNY
Weather Report — Atlanta, GA
Truist Park is outdoors, and early July in Atlanta is classic hot‑weather baseball.
Temperature: 87–91°F at first pitch
Humidity: 55–65%
Wind: 7–12 mph blowing out to right‑center
Weather Impact:
Boost to fly‑ball carry, especially for left‑handed power
Warm, humid air favors offense
Pitchers may fatigue faster in the heat
Probable Pitchers
NYM — RHP Franklin Peralta
(2026 scouting profile)
Record: 3–7
ERA: 4.68
WHIP: 1.36
K/BB: Solid strikeout ability but inconsistent command
Pitch Mix:
4‑seam fastball 94–96
Slider with late bite
Changeup used sparingly
Strengths: Generates strikeouts, good vs right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses: Home run susceptibility, struggles when behind in counts
Matchup Concern: Braves’ lineup punishes elevated fastballs
ATL — RHP Reynaldo López
Record: 8–4
ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.18
K/BB: Excellent command, strong strikeout rate
Pitch Mix:
97 mph fastball
Tight slider
Occasional curve
Strengths: Dominant at home, elite vs right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses: Can be hit by patient left‑handed bats
Matchup Edge: Mets’ lineup is right‑heavy, favoring López
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (37–53)
Last 10: 3–7
Road Record: 17–28
Runs/Game: 4.12
Team ERA: 4.71
Trend: Offense inconsistent, bullpen unreliable late
Season Arc: Struggling to stay competitive; pitching depth thin
Atlanta Braves (52–36)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 29–15
Runs/Game: 4.89
Team ERA: 3.78
Trend: Steady, strong at home, elite pitching staff
Season Arc: Chasing NL East lead, lineup heating up
Injury Report
Mets
Starling Marte — Day‑to‑day (hamstring)
Jeff McNeil — Day‑to‑day (wrist)
Bullpen missing one middle‑relief arm
Braves
Michael Harris II — Day‑to‑day (groin)
One bullpen arm on IL
Core lineup intact
Key Player Matchups
Mets Offense vs Reynaldo López
Pete Alonso: .260, 22 HR — power threat but struggles vs high‑velocity RHP
Francisco Lindor: .245, 14 HR — patient hitter, can work counts
Brandon Nimmo: .270, OBP machine — best left‑handed matchup vs López
Edge: López — velocity + command neutralizes Mets’ right‑handed core.
Braves Offense vs Franklin Peralta
Matt Olson: .275, 25 HR — elite vs elevated fastballs
Austin Riley: .265, 18 HR — crushes sliders left over the plate
Ozzie Albies: .285, 14 HR — switch‑hitter with strong numbers vs RHP
Edge: Braves — Peralta’s home run issues vs Atlanta’s power is a dangerous mix.
Series History
Braves lead season series 5–2
Braves have won 9 of last 12 vs Mets
At Truist Park: Braves have won 7 of last 9
Mets’ pitching has allowed 5+ runs in 6 of 7 meetings this season
This matchup has been heavily Braves‑favored for two straight seasons.
Betting Trends
Mets
3–7 last 10
2–8 last 10 road games
Underdog in 80% of games
Overs hit in 6 of last 9 Mets games
Braves
6–4 last 10
5–1 last 6 home games
Favorites in 90% of games
Unders hit in 7 of last 10 Braves games (elite pitching)
Head‑to‑Head
Braves have covered run line in 5 of 7 meetings
Home team has won 8 of last 10
Game Odds
New York Mets 8.5
Atlanta Braves – 123
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 5, 2026
