1 1/16 Miles | Turf | Purse: $125,000 | New York‑Bred 3‑Year‑Olds & Up | Stakes
Race Details
Race: 2026 Ashley T. Cole Stakes (Race 8)
Post Time: 4:45 PM ET
Surface: Turf
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Rail Setting: 18 feet (projected)
Track Condition (Forecast): Firm
Weather Forecast: Mostly sunny, 78°F, light winds 7–10 mph — ideal for turf racing.
Field Analysis – Ashley T. Cole Stakes (Race 8)
(Morning line odds are projected based on typical NY‑bred turf stakes patterns.)
Post 1 – Empire’s Honor
ML Odds: 3‑1 Trainer: Christophe Clement Jockey: Joel Rosario Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 3rd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm turf Running Style: Ground‑saving stalker
Analysis: Empire’s Honor draws the rail, which is perfect for his style. He loves to sit 2–3 lengths off the pace and make a rail‑skimming run. His last race at Belmont at The Big A was a strong second, closing into a slow pace. Rosario is elite at timing late moves on turf, and Clement’s NY‑bred turf runners are consistently dangerous. If he gets a clean trip, he’s a major win threat.
Post 2 – Hudson Valley King
ML Odds: 6‑1 Trainer: Michelle Nevin Jockey: Manny Franco Recent Finishes: 4th, 2nd, 5th Preferred Track Conditions: Firm or good Running Style: Mid‑pack grinder
Analysis: Hudson Valley King is a steady, reliable type who rarely runs a bad race. He doesn’t have a huge turn of foot, but he sustains his run better than most. Franco fits him well, and Nevin’s barn has been strong with NY‑bred turf routers. He needs a bit of pace up front, but if the leaders go too fast, he’ll be picking them off late.
Post 3 – North Country Breeze
ML Odds: 10‑1 Trainer: Orlando Noda Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: North Country Breeze is a tricky horse to read. His best races are good enough to hit the board, but he’s inconsistent. Carmouche is an aggressive rider who may try to put him into the race early. If he sits just behind the leaders and gets first run, he’s a live longshot. If he’s shuffled back early, he’s less effective.
Post 4 – Ridgewood Ruler
ML Odds: 7‑2 Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Recent Finishes: 1st, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Stalker / tactical closer
Analysis: Ridgewood Ruler enters in top form, with back‑to‑back wins and a strong runner‑up finish before that. Brown and Irad are lethal together on the turf, especially in NY‑bred stakes. He has a powerful late kick and consistently runs fast closing fractions. The only concern is trip — he can get stuck behind horses. If Irad finds a seam, he’s the most dangerous closer in the field.
Post 5 – Catskill Commander
ML Odds: 12‑1 Trainer: David Donk Jockey: Jose Lezcano Recent Finishes: 6th, 4th, 3rd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Catskill Commander is the truest closer in the field, but that’s a double‑edged sword. He needs a fast pace and a clean trip, and he rarely gets both. Lezcano is excellent on turf closers, but the short stretch configuration at The Big A can make it tough for deep closers to get there in time. He’s usable underneath but needs a perfect setup to win.
Post 6 – Broadway Baron
ML Odds: 4‑1 Trainer: Linda Rice Jockey: Jose Ortiz Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Versatile — can press or stalk
Analysis: Broadway Baron is the most versatile horse in the race. He can sit just off the pace or drop back and make one run. His last two races were excellent — he pressed a moderate pace and still finished strongly. Jose Ortiz is a perfect fit for this type of horse, and Rice’s turf runners have been sharp all season. If the pace is moderate, he becomes extremely dangerous.
Post 7 – Capital District
ML Odds: 8‑1 Trainer: Tom Morley Jockey: Dylan Davis Recent Finishes: 3rd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Front‑running speed
Analysis: Capital District is the likely pacesetter. He has wired fields before and is dangerous when left alone on the lead. Davis is excellent at rationing speed, and Morley’s barn has been strong with turf sprinters stretching out. If he gets comfortable fractions, he could take this field a long way. If he’s pressured early, he may fade late.
Pace Projection
Early Speed: Capital District (7)
Pressers: North Country Breeze (3), Broadway Baron (6)
Stalkers: Empire’s Honor (1), Ridgewood Ruler (4), Hudson Valley King (2)
Closers: Catskill Commander (5)
Expected Scenario: Capital District sets the pace. Broadway Baron and North Country Breeze sit just behind. Empire’s Honor and Ridgewood Ruler get ideal stalking trips. The race likely comes down to which stalker gets the best trip turning for home.
Predicted Order of Finish
Ridgewood Ruler (Post 4) – Best closer + best connections + ideal setup
Empire’s Honor (Post 1) – Rail trip + Rosario magic
Broadway Baron (Post 6) – Versatility keeps him in the mix
Capital District (Post 7) – Speed holds for a piece
Hudson Valley King (Post 2) – Late run gets him into the superfecta
North Country Breeze (Post 3) – Needs perfect trip
Catskill Commander (Post 5) – Too much to do late
