Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET / 4:10 PM PT
Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW / Bally Sports Great Lakes / MLB.tv
Probable Pitchers:
SEA — RHP Luis Castillo (6–6, 3.54 ERA)
CLE — LHP Joey Cantillo (3–3, 4.22 ERA)
Venue Information — Progressive Field
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
Capacity: ~34,800
Dimensions: LF 325 ft, CF 405 ft, RF 325 ft
Ballpark Tendencies:
Slightly boosts left‑handed power
Neutral for run scoring
Weather often dictates offensive output
Weather Forecast (Cleveland, OH)
Temperature: 77°F at first pitch
Wind: 10 mph blowing out to right field
Humidity: 62%
Conditions: Clear, warm summer evening Impact: Boost to left‑handed pull hitters; slight increase in run‑scoring environment.
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
Julio Rodríguez — ACTIVE (returned from minor back tightness)
Ty France — DAY‑TO‑DAY (ankle soreness)
J.P. Crawford — OUT (hamstring strain, 10‑day IL)
Matt Brash — OUT (UCL surgery)
Gregory Santos — OUT (shoulder inflammation)
Cleveland Guardians
José Ramírez — ACTIVE (rest day Thursday)
Josh Naylor — OUT (oblique strain, 10‑day IL)
Steven Kwan — DAY‑TO‑DAY (wrist soreness)
Shane Bieber — OUT (Tommy John rehab)
Emmanuel Clase — ACTIVE (light workload expected)
Team Records & Recent Form
Seattle Mariners (41–41)
Last 10: 5–5
Road Record: 18–22
Run Differential: +6
Trend: Pitching strong; offense inconsistent but improving.
Cleveland Guardians (42–39)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 23–17
Run Differential: +14
Trend: Rotation stabilizing; lineup adjusting without Naylor.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Luis Castillo — RHP, Mariners
2026 Stats: 6–6, 3.54 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 98 K in 94 IP
Strengths
Elite fastball/changeup combo
Excellent command
Dominant vs. right‑handed hitters
Strong road splits this season
Weaknesses
Occasionally homer‑prone when behind in counts
Guardians’ lineup has several strong contact hitters
Must avoid middle‑in to Ramírez
Matchup vs. Guardians
Cleveland ranks bottom‑10 vs. high‑velocity fastballs
Castillo’s changeup should neutralize Kwan and Giménez
Excellent matchup on paper
Joey Cantillo — LHP, Guardians
2026 Stats: 3–3, 4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 67 K in 64 IP
Strengths
Good deception from left side
Strong changeup vs. right‑handers
Generates whiffs at top of zone
Effective at home
Weaknesses
Walk issues at times
Struggles vs. power right‑handed bats
Mariners have several hitters who excel vs. changeups
Matchup vs. Mariners
Seattle ranks top‑10 vs. left‑handed pitching
Julio Rodríguez, Haniger, and Raleigh all profile well
Cantillo must keep ball down to avoid HRs to left field
Key Player Matchups
Julio Rodríguez (SEA) vs. Cantillo
Crushes left‑handed pitching
Cantillo’s fastball may not challenge him Edge: Rodríguez
Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. LHP
Power bat; thrives vs. changeups left up Edge: Raleigh
José Ramírez (CLE) vs. Castillo
Elite vs. fastballs
Castillo must rely on changeup/slider mix Edge: Even
Andrés Giménez (CLE) vs. RHP
Contact hitter; good vs. changeups Edge: Giménez
Series History
2024–2026 Combined
Mariners lead 10–7
Seattle has won 5 of last 7 at Progressive Field
Average total runs: 8.1 per game
2026 Season Series
First meeting of the season
Betting Trends
Seattle Mariners
6 of last 9: UNDER
4–1 in Castillo’s last 5 starts
3–7 in last 10 road games
6–2 last 8 vs. AL Central
Cleveland Guardians
5 of last 7: OVER
7–3 in last 10 home games
4–1 in Cantillo’s last 5 starts
5–2 last 7 vs. teams at .500 or better
Game Odds
Seattle Mariners 7.5
Cleveland Guardians – 105
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, June 25, 2026
