Fenway Park, Boston, MA
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Broadcast: Sportsnet, NESN, MLB.TV
Toronto and Boston meet again in an AL East matchup between two clubs trending in different directions. The Blue Jays (36–38) are trying to claw back to .500 behind improved starting pitching and a more consistent offense. The Red Sox (29–42) continue to struggle with injuries, rotation instability, and a bullpen that has been overworked. Toronto sends Chase Yesavage, one of the most exciting young arms in the league, while Boston counters with veteran right‑hander Sonny Gray, who has battled inconsistency in 2026.
Venue Information
Fenway Park — Boston, Massachusetts
Opened: 1912
Capacity: ~37,500
Park Factors:
Boosts doubles due to the Green Monster
Short right‑field porch favors left‑handed pull hitters
Plays hitter‑friendly in warm weather
Weather Forecast (Boston, MA)
Temperature: 76–80°F at first pitch
Humidity: 55–60%
Wind: 7–10 mph blowing out to left
Rain Chance: <10%
Impact:
Boost to right‑handed power hitters
Fly balls to left will carry
Slightly elevated scoring environment
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Healthy
Bo Bichette — Healthy
George Springer — Healthy
Daulton Varsho — Healthy
Chase Yesavage — Healthy
Impact: Toronto enters nearly at full strength, giving them a major advantage in lineup depth and defensive stability.
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers — Healthy
Jarren Duran — Healthy
Triston Casas — OUT (shoulder)
Masataka Yoshida — Questionable (hamstring)
Sonny Gray — Healthy
Impact: Casas’ absence removes Boston’s best left‑handed power threat, and if Yoshida sits, the Red Sox lose another key bat.
Team Records & Recent Form
Toronto Blue Jays (36–38)
Last 10: 6–4
Road Record: 18–20
Run Differential: -8
Trend: Rotation improving; bullpen stabilizing; offense streaky but trending upward
Boston Red Sox (29–42)
Last 10: 3–7
Home Record: 14–22
Run Differential: -55
Trend: Pitching struggling; offense inconsistent; defense below average
Series History
2025 Season: Blue Jays won 10–3
Last 20 Meetings: Blue Jays lead 14–6
At Fenway Park (last 10): Blue Jays lead 7–3
Toronto has dominated this rivalry over the past two seasons.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
TOR — Chase Yesavage (RHP)
2026 Stats: 3.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Strengths: Power fastball, wipeout slider, high strikeout rate
Weaknesses: Occasional walk issues; can be HR‑prone when elevated
Matchup Outlook:
Must keep the slider down vs. Devers
Fenway’s dimensions can punish mistakes
Still holds a clear stuff advantage over Boston’s lineup
BOS — Sonny Gray (RHP)
2026 Stats: 4.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Strengths: Strong curveball, veteran command, induces weak contact
Weaknesses: Declining velocity; struggles vs. right‑handed power
Matchup Outlook:
Toronto’s right‑handed core (Guerrero, Bichette, Springer) is a tough matchup
Must avoid falling behind in counts
Likely 5‑inning ceiling
Key Player Matchups
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Sonny Gray
Guerrero crushes right‑handed pitching
Fenway’s left‑field wall is tailor‑made for his line‑drive power
Could be a multi‑extra‑base‑hit night
2. Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Chase Yesavage
Devers handles elite velocity well
Yesavage must keep the slider down and away
High‑leverage matchup every plate appearance
3. Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Gray’s Curveball
Bichette excels vs. breaking balls left up in the zone
Strong candidate for RBI opportunities
4. Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Toronto Bullpen
Duran’s speed can create chaos
Key late‑inning matchup if Boston keeps it close
Betting Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
6–4 in last 10
Over is 6–4 in last 10
7–3 in last 10 vs. Red Sox
5–2 in Yesavage’s last 7 starts
Boston Red Sox
3–7 in last 10
Under is 5–4–1 in last 10
2–8 in last 10 home games
1–6 in Gray’s last 7 starts
Predictive Analysis
Why Toronto Can Win
Yesavage has a strong matchup vs. Boston’s weakened lineup
Guerrero and Bichette are heating up
Toronto dominates this rivalry
Gray struggles vs. right‑handed power
Why Boston Can Win
Devers can carry the offense
Fenway’s dimensions can punish fly‑ball pitchers like Yesavage
If Gray survives the first two innings, Boston can keep it competitive
X‑Factor:
Fenway Park’s left‑field wall. Toronto’s right‑handed hitters can feast on Gray’s elevated fastballs.
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays 9.5
Boston Red Sox – 148
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, June 17, 2026
