Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
Probable Pitchers:
- NYM: Tyler Myers (RHP)
- CIN: Corbin Burns (RHP)
- First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET (4:10 PM PT)
- Broadcast: SNY, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
The Mets and Reds open a three‑game set in Cincinnati with both clubs trying to climb back into the NL Wild Card picture. New York enters struggling to find consistency, while Cincinnati leans on ace Corbin Burns to stabilize their rotation and halt a recent slide.
Venue & Weather Conditions
Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, OH
- Dimensions: 328 LF / 404 CF / 325 RF
- Park Factor: One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks
- Surface: Grass
Weather Forecast
- Temperature: 85–88°F
- Humidity: 60–65%
- Wind: 9–12 mph blowing out to left‑center
- Rain Chance: <10%
- Impact:
- Hot, humid air + wind out = major boost to home runs
- Fly‑ball pitchers at risk
- RH pull hitters (Alonso, India, Steer) get a bump
Injury Report
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso — Healthy
- Francisco Lindor — Healthy
- Starling Marte — OUT (hamstring)
- Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
- Jeff McNeil — Healthy
Impact: Marte’s absence hurts lineup depth and outfield defense.
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz — Healthy
- Jonathan India — Healthy
- TJ Friedl — OUT (wrist)
- Hunter Greene — Healthy
- Christian Encarnacion‑Strand — OUT (back)
Impact: Reds missing two key bats, but the top of the order remains explosive.
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (32–39)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 15–21
- Runs Scored: 4.2 per game
- Runs Allowed: 4.9 per game
- Trend: Pitching inconsistent, bullpen unreliable, offense streaky.
Cincinnati Reds (33–37)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Home Record: 18–17
- Runs Scored: 4.5 per game
- Runs Allowed: 4.7 per game
- Trend: Offense hot‑and‑cold, pitching stabilizing behind Burns and Greene.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
New York — Tyler Myers (RHP)
- 2026 Stats: 4.61 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 8.1 K/9
- Last 3 Starts: 15.0 IP, 10 ER, 5 HR allowed
- Pitch Mix: 4‑seam, slider, curve, change
- Strength: Generates strikeouts when ahead in the count
- Concern: Fly‑ball tendencies in a hitter’s park with wind blowing out
Matchup Outlook: Myers must keep the ball down — Great American Ball Park is unforgiving to elevated fastballs.
Cincinnati — Corbin Burns (RHP)
- 2026 Stats: 3.28 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 10.4 K/9
- Last 3 Starts: 20.1 IP, 5 ER, 27 K
- Pitch Mix: Cutter, curve, sinker, change
- Strength: Elite command, dominant vs. RH hitters
- Concern: Mets’ lefties (McNeil, Nimmo) hit cutters well
Matchup Outlook: Burns is the clear pitching advantage and has been excellent at home.
Key Player Matchups
1. Elly De La Cruz vs. Tyler Myers
- Elly’s power + speed combo is lethal in Cincinnati
- Myers’ fly‑ball profile is a bad matchup
2. Pete Alonso vs. Corbin Burns
- Alonso has HR power vs. elite pitching
- Burns’ cutter must stay inside to avoid damage
3. Jonathan India vs. Mets Bullpen
- India thrives late in games
- Mets’ middle relief is one of MLB’s weakest units
4. Francisco Lindor vs. Burns
- Lindor hitting .290 vs. RHP in June
- Burns’ curveball is the key weapon here
Series History
- 2025 Season: Mets won 4–2
- Last 20 Meetings: Mets lead 11–9
- At Great American Ball Park: Reds 6–4 in last 10
This matchup has been competitive, with slight home‑field advantage for Cincinnati.
Betting Trends
New York Mets
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
- Over is 6–4 in last 10
- Mets 1–5 in Myers’ last 6 starts
Cincinnati Reds
- 7–3 in last 10 home games
- Reds 6–2 in Burns’ last 8 starts
- Over is 5–2 in last 7 at Great American Ball Park
Predictive Analysis
Why the Mets can win
- Alonso/Lindor can carry the offense
- Burns occasionally gives up early HRs
- Mets’ lineup has been better on the road
Why the Reds can win
- Burns is in ace form
- Ballpark conditions favor Cincinnati’s power
- Mets’ pitching staff struggling across the board
Projected Game Script
- Burns dominates early
- Reds score 2–3 runs in the middle innings
- Mets threaten late but bullpen falters
- Cincinnati closes it out
Game Odds
New York Mets 8.5
Cincinnati Reds – 135
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, June 14, 2026
