Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET
Probable Pitchers:
DET — Casey Mize (RHP) vs. CLE — Gavin Williams (RHP)
Broadcast: Bally Sports Detroit / Bally Sports Great Lakes / MLB.TV
Cleveland looks to secure a series win and maintain their position in the AL Central race, while Detroit continues to search for consistency in a season defined by offensive struggles and pitching volatility. This matchup features two former top‑10 draft picks — one trying to reestablish himself (Mize), the other emerging as a frontline arm (Williams).
Venue & Weather
Progressive Field — Cleveland, Ohio
- Dimensions: 325 ft (LF), 370 ft (LCF), 405 ft (CF), 375 ft (RCF), 325 ft (RF)
- Park Factor: Slightly hitter‑friendly, especially for LHB pull power
- Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast
- Temperature: 79–82°F
- Sky: Mostly sunny
- Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to right
- Rain: <10%
- Impact:
- Boosts LHB power (Kwan, Naylor, Carpenter)
- Warm air helps carry fly balls
- Pitchers must keep the ball down to avoid damage to the RF porch
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene — Probable (minor knee soreness)
- Kerry Carpenter — OUT (hamstring)
- Tarik Skubal — OUT (shoulder fatigue)
- Alex Faedo — OUT (forearm)
Impact: Detroit’s lineup is thin without Carpenter, and losing Skubal removes their ace from the rotation.
Cleveland Guardians
- Josh Naylor — Probable (ankle soreness)
- Steven Kwan — Healthy
- Shane Bieber — OUT (Tommy John recovery)
- Trevor Stephan — OUT (elbow)
Impact: Cleveland’s offense hinges on Naylor’s availability. The bullpen remains strong despite Stephan’s absence.
Team Records & Recent Form
Detroit Tigers (29–42)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Road Record: 13–22
- Runs/Game: 3.78
- Team ERA: 4.47
- Trend: Offense struggling; pitching inconsistent; bullpen overworked
Cleveland Guardians (39–33)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Home Record: 21–14
- Runs/Game: 4.52
- Team ERA: 3.91
- Trend: Pitching strong; offense streaky but improving; excellent at home
Series History (2026 Season)
- Guardians lead season series 4–1
- Cleveland has won 9 of the last 12 meetings
- Progressive Field has been a difficult venue for Detroit’s offense
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
DET — Casey Mize (RHP)
Record: 2–6 ERA: 4.68 WHIP: 1.36 K/BB: 48/19 Last 3 Starts: 5.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Profile: Mize continues to search for consistency post‑injury. His splitter has shown flashes, but his fastball command has been inconsistent, leading to hard contact.
Keys to Success:
- Keep splitter down vs. Naylor and Ramirez
- Avoid falling behind — Cleveland punishes fastball counts
- Induce ground balls early to limit pitch count
CLE — Gavin Williams (RHP)
Record: 5–3 ERA: 3.22 WHIP: 1.14 K/BB: 72/21 Last 3 Starts: 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Profile: Williams has emerged as Cleveland’s most reliable starter. His mid‑90s fastball and sharp slider generate elite swing‑and‑miss rates, and he’s been dominant at home.
Keys to Success:
- Elevate fastball vs. Detroit’s RH hitters
- Use slider early in counts to disrupt timing
- Attack bottom of the order aggressively
Key Player Matchups
1. José Ramírez (CLE) vs. Casey Mize
- Ramírez feasts on pitchers who struggle with command
- Mize must avoid middle‑in fastballs
2. Riley Greene (DET) vs. Gavin Williams
- Greene is Detroit’s best hitter vs. high velocity
- Williams must keep the slider away from Greene’s barrel
3. Josh Naylor (CLE) vs. Mize’s Splitter
- Naylor crushes pitches left up in the zone
- Mize must bury the splitter consistently
4. Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Guardians Bullpen
- Torkelson’s power plays well to left field
- Cleveland’s late‑inning arms are elite at limiting RH power
Betting Trends
- Tigers are 2–8 in their last 10 road games
- Guardians are 7–3 in their last 10 home games
- Under is 6–3 in Detroit’s last 9 games
- Cleveland is 5–1 in Williams’ last 6 starts
- Tigers are 1–6 in Mize’s last 7 starts
Predictive Analysis
This matchup heavily favors Cleveland:
Guardians advantages:
- Clear starting pitching edge
- Better recent form
- Strong home performance
- More consistent offense
Tigers advantages:
- Greene’s bat gives them a chance
- Mize has shown flashes of improvement
Game Odds
Detroit Tigers 7.5
Cleveland Guardians – 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, June 13, 2026
