Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Probable Pitchers:
SD — Walker Buehler (RHP) vs. BAL — Tyler Rogers (RHP)
Broadcast: Bally Sports San Diego / MASN / MLB.TV
San Diego and Baltimore wrap up their interleague series with a compelling pitching matchup between a rejuvenated Walker Buehler and the deceptive, submarine‑throwing Tyler Rogers, who is making a rare spot start for the Orioles. Both teams sit near the .500 mark and are fighting to stay in the early Wild Card conversation.
Venue & Weather
Oriole Park at Camden Yards — Baltimore, Maryland
- Dimensions: 333 ft (LF), 364 ft (LCF), 410 ft (CF), 373 ft (RCF), 318 ft (RF)
- Park Factor: Slightly hitter‑friendly, especially for RHB pull power
- Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast
- Temperature: 83–86°F
- Sky: Mostly sunny
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to left
- Rain: <10%
- Impact:
- Warm air + wind out → boosts RH power (Machado, Santander, Mountcastle)
- Good hitting conditions overall
- Buehler must keep the ball down to avoid carry to LF
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — Probable (minor wrist soreness)
- Xander Bogaerts — OUT (shoulder)
- Joe Musgrove — OUT (elbow)
- Robert Suarez — OUT (forearm)
Impact: San Diego’s bullpen is thin without Suarez, and Bogaerts’ absence weakens the infield defense and lineup depth.
Baltimore Orioles
- Gunnar Henderson — Probable (quad tightness)
- Cedric Mullins — OUT (foot fracture)
- Kyle Bradish — OUT (UCL surgery)
- Danny Coulombe — OUT (biceps)
Impact: Henderson’s availability is crucial — he’s Baltimore’s engine. Mullins’ absence hurts their outfield defense and speed.
Team Records & Recent Form
San Diego Padres (36–33)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Road Record: 18–16
- Runs/Game: 4.39
- Team ERA: 3.92
- Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense improving; bullpen shaky
Baltimore Orioles (34–38)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 17–19
- Runs/Game: 4.31
- Team ERA: 4.28
- Trend: Offense inconsistent; pitching depth stretched; bullpen overworked
Series History (2026 Season)
- Padres lead season series 2–1
- Padres have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
- Camden Yards has historically been favorable to San Diego’s RH power bats
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
SD — Walker Buehler (RHP)
Record: 4–2 ERA: 3.48 WHIP: 1.16 K/BB: 68/19 Last 3 Starts: 2.95 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Profile: Buehler is finally looking like his pre‑injury self — mid‑90s fastball life, sharp cutter, and a devastating curveball. His command has improved each month.
Keys to Success:
- Elevate fastball vs. aggressive RH hitters (Mountcastle, Santander)
- Keep cutter inside to righties
- Avoid long innings — Orioles feast on mistakes in hitter’s counts
BAL — Tyler Rogers (RHP)
Record: 2–3 ERA: 3.96 WHIP: 1.28 K/BB: 24/7 Last 3 Appearances: 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Profile: Rogers is a submarine reliever making a rare spot start due to Baltimore’s rotation injuries. He relies on deception, ground balls, and soft contact. Expect a short outing (3–4 innings).
Keys to Success:
- Keep ball down to avoid HRs
- Induce early‑count grounders
- Avoid facing Machado multiple times
Key Player Matchups
1. Manny Machado (SD) vs. Tyler Rogers
- Machado crushes low‑velocity RHP
- Rogers must avoid middle‑in sinkers
2. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) vs. Walker Buehler
- Henderson’s bat speed matches up well with Buehler’s cutter
- If Henderson reaches base twice, Baltimore’s offense opens up
3. Jake Cronenworth (SD) vs. Orioles Bullpen
- Cronenworth excels vs. high‑spin relievers
- Baltimore’s middle relief is vulnerable
4. Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Buehler’s Fastball
- Mountcastle punishes elevated heaters
- Buehler must mix pitches effectively
Betting Trends
- Padres are 7–3 in their last 10 road games
- Orioles are 3–7 in their last 10 overall
- Over is 6–2 in Padres’ last 8 games
- Under is 5–2 in Orioles’ last 7 home games
- Padres are 5–1 in Buehler’s last 6 starts
Predictive Analysis
This matchup heavily favors San Diego:
Padres advantages:
- Clear starting pitching edge
- Better recent form
- More lineup depth
- Better road performance
Orioles advantages:
- Home‑field
- Henderson’s return boosts offense
- Padres’ bullpen is vulnerable
Game Odds
San Diego Padres 9.5
Baltimore Orioles – 125
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, June 13, 2026
