Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET
Broadcast: Bally Sports South / SNY / MLB.TV
Atlanta continues its NL-best pace while the Mets try to salvage a homestand with a rotation spot still unsettled. With the Braves’ offense heating up and New York’s pitching depth stretched thin, this matchup leans heavily toward Atlanta unless the Mets’ mystery starter delivers a surprise gem.
Weather Forecast — Queens, NY
- Temperature: 79–82°F at first pitch
- Wind: 7–10 mph blowing out to right-center
- Humidity: ~57%
- Rain: <10% — dry, warm, slightly hitter-friendly
- Impact:
- Boost to left-handed power, especially balls hit to right-center
- Good carry on fly balls; pitchers must keep the ball down
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
- SP Spencer Strider — OUT (UCL surgery)
- RP A.J. Minter — 15-day IL (shoulder)
- OF Michael Harris II — Day-to-day (hamstring tightness)
- C Sean Murphy — Probable (hand bruise)
- 3B Austin Riley — Healthy after minor back stiffness earlier in week
New York Mets
- SP Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
- RP Edwin Díaz — 15-day IL (forearm)
- OF Brandon Nimmo — Day-to-day (quad tightness)
- C Francisco Álvarez — Probable (knee soreness)
- **SP TBD — Mets expected to choose between:
- José Butto (RHP) — 4.71 ERA, command issues
- Christian Scott (RHP) — 3.98 ERA, strong fastball/slider
- Bullpen game if neither is available**
Team Records & Recent Form
Atlanta Braves (45–24)
- Last 10: 7–3
- Trend: Offense surging; pitching stabilizing.
- Road Record: 22–14
- Run Differential: +71
- Key Note: Braves averaging 5.4 runs per game in June.
New York Mets (31–38)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Trend: Bullpen collapsing; offense inconsistent.
- Home Record: 15–20
- Run Differential: -39
- Key Note: Mets have allowed 6+ runs in 7 of their last 10.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Atlanta — LHP Martín Pérez
- Record: 6–3
- ERA: 3.66
- WHIP: 1.24
- K/BB: 58/18
- Profile:
- Soft-contact lefty with cutter/changeup mix
- Excellent at limiting HRs — key in Citi Field
- Vulnerable to right-handed power when behind in counts
- Matchup Notes:
- Mets’ best hitters (Lindor, Alonso) are right-handed
- Pérez has a 3.12 ERA in day games this season
New York — TBD (Likely Butto or Scott)
If José Butto starts:
- ERA: 4.71
- WHIP: 1.39
- Profile:
- Fastball-changeup pitcher
- Command issues lead to high pitch counts
- Struggles vs elite offenses
- Matchup vs Braves:
- Atlanta crushes changeups
- Butto has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of last 6 starts
If Christian Scott starts:
- ERA: 3.98
- WHIP: 1.22
- Profile:
- High-spin fastball, sharp slider
- Better command than Butto
- Matchup vs Braves:
- Braves hit high-spin fastballs well
- Scott’s slider could neutralize lefties (Olson, Harris)
If bullpen game:
- Mets bullpen ERA last 14 days: 5.92
- Major disadvantage vs Atlanta’s lineup
Key Player Matchups
Atlanta Braves
- Ronald Acuña Jr.: Heating up; elite vs fastballs; Citi Field suits his power.
- Matt Olson: Wind blowing out to right-center is ideal for him.
- Ozzie Albies: Switch-hitter with strong numbers vs Mets pitching.
- Austin Riley: .310 over last 15 games; crushes sliders.
New York Mets
- Pete Alonso vs Pérez: Alonso hits lefties extremely well; biggest threat.
- Francisco Lindor: Good matchup vs cutters; needs to spark offense.
- Starling Marte: Speed threat; can pressure Atlanta’s defense.
Series History
- 2023–2026 Combined: Braves lead 33–18
- At Citi Field: Braves lead 15–9
- Trend: Atlanta has won 7 of last 9 vs Mets
- Run differential last 10 meetings: Braves +31
Betting Trends
Atlanta
- Braves 7–2 last 9 road games
- Over is 6–3 in last 9
- Atlanta 8–3 in Pérez’s last 11 starts
New York
- Mets 3–7 last 10 home games
- Over is 5–2 in last 7
- Mets 2–6 in last 8 vs NL East
Head-to-Head
- Braves 6–1 in last 7 meetings
- Over is 7–3 in last 10 matchups at Citi Field
Game Odds
Atlanta Braves 8.5
New York Mets – 110
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, June 12, 2026
