• Purse: $100,000
• Distance: 1 Mile (Turf)
• Surface: Turf
Eligibility: Florida‑bred 3‑Year‑Olds
Venue & Race Details
Location
Gulfstream Park 901 S Federal Hwy, Hallandale Beach, Florida A tight‑turning turf course with a short stretch that rewards tactical speed, inside trips, and forward placement, especially at the one‑mile distance.
Scheduled Post Time: 5:55 PM ET (Race 11)
Expected Weather & Track Conditions
- Forecast: Partly sunny
- Temperature: ~86°F
- Humidity: 73%
- Wind: 10–13 mph from the east
- Turf Condition: Firm
- Bias Notes: Gulfstream’s turf mile favors pressers and stalkers—deep closers often struggle unless the pace is unusually hot.
Field Overview – 2026 Not Surprising Stakes
Morning line odds, post positions, connections, running styles, and recent form included.
Post 1 – Mattingly (ML 3/1)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Edgard Zayas Running Style: Tactical Stalker
Recent Finishes
- 1st – English Channel Stakes – 1M – Firm
- 2nd – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 3rd – Palm Beach Stakes – 1 1/16M – Firm
Analysis
Mattingly is a Gulfstream turf specialist with a perfect running style for this configuration. He breaks cleanly, sits just behind the leaders, and finishes with a strong late punch. Zayas knows him extremely well and excels on the GP turf.
Strengths: Home‑track advantage; ideal running style; consistent. Concerns: Rail draw requires a clean break to avoid getting shuffled.
Post 2 – Grand Mo the First (ML 7/2)
Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr. Jockey: Miguel Vasquez Running Style: Front‑running Speed
Recent Finishes
- 1st – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 3rd – Not Surprising Stakes (2025) – 1M – Firm
- 2nd – Optional Claiming – 7½F – Firm
Analysis
Grand Mo the First is the likely pace setter. He breaks sharply and dares anyone to go with him. At one mile, he becomes even more dangerous if he gets loose on the lead. Vasquez is aggressive and will send immediately.
Strengths: Lone‑speed danger; sharp early foot; proven at GP. Concerns: Pressure from outside could soften him late.
Post 3 – Souper Blessing (ML 4/1)
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Running Style: Pressing Speed
Recent Finishes
- 2nd – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 1st – Maiden Special Weight – 1M – Firm
- 3rd – Maiden Special Weight – 7½F – Firm
Analysis
Souper Blessing is a lightly raced colt with upside. He has enough tactical speed to sit just behind Grand Mo the First and may get first run on the closers. Gaffalione is one of the best turf riders in the country and fits him perfectly.
Strengths: Upside; strong connections; tactical versatility. Concerns: Needs to prove he can outkick the top two.
Post 4 – Storm the Courtroom (ML 6/1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Running Style: Midpack Stalker
Recent Finishes
- 3rd – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 1st – Maiden Special Weight – 1M – Firm
- 2nd – Maiden Special Weight – 7½F – Firm
Analysis
A lightly raced colt with upside, Storm the Courtroom is improving rapidly and gets a major rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. He has tactical speed and should sit a perfect trip behind the top three. Pletcher’s turf runners at Gulfstream are always dangerous.
Strengths: Upside; strong connections; tactical versatility. Concerns: Class test; needs a career‑best effort.
Post 5 – King’s Fortune (ML 8/1)
Trainer: Brian Lynch Jockey: Jose Ortiz Running Style: Deep Closer
Recent Finishes
- 4th – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 3rd – Optional Claiming – 1M – Firm
- 5th – Palm Beach Stakes – 1 1/16M – Firm
Analysis
King’s Fortune is the truest closer in the field. He needs a hot pace to set up his late run. Ortiz will drop him back early and try to make one big sweeping move. If the leaders duel, he becomes dangerous.
Strengths: Best late kick in the field. Concerns: Pace‑dependent; Gulfstream’s short stretch works against him.
Post 6 – Florida Two Step (ML 12/1)
Trainer: Carlos Perez Jockey: Paco Lopez Running Style: Pace‑pressing Speed
Recent Finishes
- 5th – Allowance (GP) – 1M – Firm
- 3rd – Maiden Special Weight – 1M – Firm
- 1st – Maiden Claiming – 7½F – Firm
Analysis
A longshot with some early foot, Florida Two Step will likely sit just outside Grand Mo the First. He’s game but lacks the finishing punch of the top contenders. Lopez is a strong turf rider and will try to keep him in the race early.
Strengths: Tactical speed; can sit a good trip. Concerns: Needs a career‑best effort to win.
Pace Projection
Early Leaders
- Grand Mo the First (P2) – clear speed
- Florida Two Step (P6) – pressing
- Souper Blessing (P3) – stalking close
Midpack
- Mattingly (P1)
- Storm the Courtroom (P4)
Closers
- King’s Fortune (P5)
Expected Shape: Honest to fast pace. Advantage to tactical stalkers—especially Mattingly.
Power Rankings (Projected Performance)
- Mattingly (P1) – Home‑track specialist + perfect setup
- Grand Mo the First (P2) – Lone‑speed danger
- Souper Blessing (P3) – Tactical and improving
- Storm the Courtroom (P4) – Upside play
- King’s Fortune (P5) – Needs pace meltdown
- Florida Two Step (P6) – Minor award contender
